Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 151141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Also plan a forecast
update for the expiration of this morning`s Freeze Warning by 8 am.
The Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning will remain in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Most of the widespread precipitation has shifted east of the area
early this morning. The few showers left across southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky around 08Z should
depart by daybreak. Thereafter, the primary near term focus is the
potential for a freeze tonight.

As an upper level trough begins to shift east of the region today,
a surface ridge of high pressure will build east from the Plains.
A respectable pressure gradient will keep gusty winds across the
area through at least mid afternoon. Despite the strong April sun,
cold air advection will likely keep highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s this afternoon.

With the surface high overhead tonight, clear skies and calm
winds will result in excellent radiational cooling. This will
allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. By Wednesday
morning, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s across
the entire forecast area. For this reason, we will upgrade the
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight. In addition to a
freeze, areas of frost are also expected.

Early Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will extend from the
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. As it continues to move
east, southeast winds and a resultant moderating trend will take
hold as we head into late week. Highs Wednesday will range around
the 60 degree mark, then surge well into the 60s on Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s with a light wind. This
should be enough to keep frost from becoming much of an issue.
However, some very patchy frost is not totally out of the question
in outlying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The approach of an inverted surface trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances into our area starting
Thursday night. Precipitation chances will be greatest on Friday as
the aforementioned features actually cross the region.
Precipitation chances will linger over the far eastern sections of
our CWA Friday night in the last of the wrap around moisture of the
departing system. Instability parameters were slightly lacking with
this system, so kept the mention of thunder out for the time being.

For those planning outdoor activities this Saturday and Saturday
night, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should
keep the area dry with temperatures slightly below normal. The
approach of yet another surface front/trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances back to approximately the
northwest half of our CWA on Easter Sunday. Precipitation chances
increase Sunday night and Monday as these features track across the
region. Again instability parameters not strong enough to warrant
the mention of thunder with this system.

Temperatures on Friday are expected to be well below normal but will
moderate to just below normal from Saturday through the remainder of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Once skies clear at KEVV and KOWB by 14Z, VFR conditions are
expected at all forecast terminals over the next 24 hours. Some
scattered stratocumulus may develop in the heat of the day,
particularly at KEVV and KOWB. Gusty northwest winds today will
diminish late this afternoon and become nearly calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP






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