Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 101134
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A couple of showers continue in the KOWB area in a band of
moisture behind our latest minor frontal passage. Won`t be
surprised to see a few more pop up here and there through
daybreak, as the band of moisture shifts slowly southward through
the area.

The primary trends in the 00Z models this morning compared to
yesterday`s runs are for the surface ridge to hold on across the
area through the day Friday, while the upper ridge builds in more
aggressively from the west. The surface high will keep northerly winds
and drier air in the east Friday, and the upper ridge will keep
the westerly flow aloft to our north, and therefore keep the MCSs
north of our region at least through Saturday.

Decided not to remove the PoPs altogether, despite the GFS and
ECMWF guidance supporting that move, since that would be quite a
drastic shift for one forecast cycle. Will keep slight chance PoPs
along I-64 in southern Illinois Friday night and 20-30% PoPs over
the northern half of the area Saturday.

As for high temperatures, with a ridge building aloft and the
associated inversion descending through the period, there will be
a nice warming trend through the period. Consensus guidance seems
a bit cool today, but it looks pretty good for Friday and Saturday.

The dry airmass will begin to modify in the west on Friday, and
throughout the area Saturday when the surface high finally gets
out of the way the southerly winds return to the region. The
increase in moisture may be quite dramatic Saturday with the
shallow inversion expected. Dewpoints in the lower 70s may be
sustained through the afternoon, leading to heat indices in the
upper 90s.

Low temperature guidance seems a bit too low tonight, especially
in the southwest half of the region. Likewise, went above guidance
for all but the southern Pennyrile Friday night, as warm advection
just above the surface should hold temperatures up above guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Models show some continuity but there is some flip flopping
especially with the GFS. Overall however there is a good general
trend with the synoptic scale features. A warm front lifts through
the region early in the weekend setting us up for warm air advection
showers and storms. By Monday a cold front will move through the
region bringing us another focusing mechanism for storms. However
by Tuesday the front should be south of the area bringing us another
dry cool period much like the holiday weekend last week. This is
very unusual for this time of year but not unheard of to say the
least. The later periods of the GFS are coming in with every other
frame 6 hours old as usual. It is trying to make some changes but
its very difficult to discern due to this common problem. However
the models appear to be trying to build something into the mid to
late week period next week out of the central plains but will hold
off on any major changes until a full run of the model suites can be
assimilated.

Temperatures and humidity will definitely spike this weekend with an
unseasonable cool down for early to mid week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region and result in a VFR
forecast through the entire 12Z TAF period. Lots of mixing,
expected today, should prevent fog formation tonight. However,
with the lush vegetation across the area, would not be totally
surprised if some patchy ground fog develops at one site or
another.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS





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