Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion for 18Z TAF`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Front continues to push through the area early this a.m. extending
from just east of KEVV to KPAH. Convection trailing the front.
Will progress the chances across the area from west to east
through the morning, ending in our SE counties by midday to early
afternoon. Timing will be similar to a NAM/HRRR blend. Quiet
weather tonight through Tuesday night in the wake of the front.
Will monitor the evolution of a closed stacked low over the Great
Lakes region through mid week. The models move the system SSE
toward the Ohio Valley region. In fact a couple of models indicate
some precip could develop across our eastern counties on
Wednesday. Will monitor, but for now no inclusion just yet given
low confidence. Otherwise, cooler temperatures in the short term.
Favored MET/ECS MOS numbers which line up with our existing
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Less confidence in the extended than previous nights...at least with
the deterministic models.

The 12z Monday ECMWF seems to be the outlier with the upper low
sinking into the lower Ohio Valley which would place us in at least
a chance of rain. In contrast the 00z Monday GFS holds steadfast in
keeping the upper level low over the eastern or upper Ohio Valley.
In view of the inconsistent run of the latest ECMWF will up pops
slightly but will wait for some run to run consistency of the ECMWF
before introduction of pops over the area. Either way we will be in
a northwest flow aloft with either model so temperatures will be
slightly lower than previous forecast or slightly below normal for
the upcoming week. The best chance of rain will come Thursday into
Friday with the ECMWF but still have trouble buying into the
retrograde motion of the model. However it will be a closed low with
any model output which makes it plausible for the lack of eastward
progression. For now will hold static with the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Scattered MVFR cigs at midday in far eastern counties should move
east within an hr. Otherwise some mid and high clouds before the
clearing moves in from NW to SE through the afternoon hrs. Some
gusty winds noted upstream near St Louis, and anticipating some
potential at gusty winds up around 15 kts in our area this
afternoon. Winds to die down quickly with sunset and become calm
overnight. Clear skies will rule as high pressure moves in this
evening and overnight. West winds aob 10 kts expected tmrw.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP


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