Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200436
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Average confidence in the short term.

What appears to be mostly diurnal convection at the time of this
writing should diminish for the most part if not completely this
evening into the early overnight hours with the loss of
heating/instability.

After a brief respite late tonight, precipitation chances will begin
to increase early Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the
region. Precipitation chances will max out Saturday afternoon into
early evening as the front actually begins to cross the area. There
is a marginal threat for severe storms on Saturday across all of
southern IL, southwest IN, and small portions of southeast MO and
western KY. The main threat with the stronger storms will be
damaging winds.

With the passage of the front precipitation chances will diminish
from west to east Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Cooler
and drier high pressure overspreading the region in the wake of the
frontal passage will provide dry conditions as well as a lack of
clouds and below normal temperatures and humidities from Sunday
through the remainder of the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The extended forecast period will start out with noticeably below
average temps for this time of year and clear skies, under the
center of a 1022+MB surface high and increasing ridging aloft.
Models were in good agreement for the extended time period, with
small timing differences with a surface cold frontal passage late
across the PAH forecast area.

As the week progresses, the high over us will be eventually replaced
by an increasing low level southwesterly flow, making Gulf moisture
available again. It may take a little longer than the models suggest
for the increase in moisture to result in a significant rise in
surface dewpoints, but by mid morning Wednesday, they should be on
there way back up into the 70s. The increasing low level flow will
result in a gradual warming trend in temps. A minor mid level
southern stream shortwave, embedded in the broader cyclonic flow
across the central CONUS, may enable scattered elevated showers and
a few tstms to develop early Wednesday in mainly southeastern MO and
southern IL, along with increased cloudiness there.

There may be a lull in the pcpn during the afternoon on Wednesday
between systems. The next system will be a cold front, driven by
large scale cyclonic flow aloft, which will be the result of two
phased shortwaves, one in the northern stream and one in the
southern stream. Model consensus suggests the highest PoPs/clouds
associated with greatest frontal lift will be later on Thursday and
into Thursday night. Rain chances/clouds will rapidly decrease
Friday as deep northwesterly flow takes over. Temps should still
reach the lower 80s Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

KCGI will see a couple of shra/possibly tsra through 08z. VFR
conditions expected overnight at TAF sites with dips to MVFR
vsbys from fog possible. Main story is cold front
approach/passage during the afternoon/evening hours Saturday.
Shra/tsra possible mainly after 20z at all sites, but stray
shra/tsra possible before 20z. MVFR conditions likely with
convection, with isolated stronger storms taking TAF sites into
IFR conditions.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST



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