Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182314

514 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

Issued at 509 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Very chilly high pressure will hang on for one more day, but winds
will switch to the sw and increase to over 20 MPH in some areas on
Wednesday ahead of a clipper-like system dropping se into the Great
Lakes region. These winds will help warm things into the 40s for the
first time in quite awhile. Most of the energy with the clipper will
stay well north of our area, so we will likely just see mid and high
clouds from a cold frontal passage Wednesday evening. However,
the front will serve to usher a new batch of well below normal
temperatures back into the region for Wednesday night/Thursday.
Maximum temperatures Thursday should stay in the 30s for the most

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Models continue to show a weak warm front lifting north late
Thursday night into Friday. Increasing moisture with the front
will result in small precip chances by early Friday morning, when
a light rain/light freezing rain mix will be possible across our
southern half of counties until mid morning. Temperatures should
climb above freezing by mid morning, and any precip should then be
all rain. No significant precip amounts are expected at the onset.
Rain chances will gradually increase later Friday into Friday night
as the warm front lifts across the PAH forecast area. Temperatures
will continue to moderate with the return of southerly winds into
the weekend. the south winds will give us above normal
temperatures Friday night through Sunday night.

For Saturday into Sunday, models show a surface low moving from
the southern Plains into the middle Mississippi valley.
Instability will slowly increase with the approach of the low,
and went with a good chance of showers across the entire PAH fa
for Saturday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms for our
western half of counties. The best chances for showers will be
Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves just northwest of the
PAH fa. Went with likely to categorical PoPs Saturday night, and
continued likely pops for all but far western portions of the
region on Sunday. The best instability will be Saturday night into
Sunday, and continued chances for thunderstorms through that time
frame. Continued good chances of showers into Sunday night with
the passage of the cold front. ECMWF shows some wrap around
moisture on Monday, but GFS lingers some precip in our region due
to slower passage of the cold front. In either case, kept a chance
of light rain in for Monday.  Dry and cooler conditions can be
expected behind the front Monday night into Tuesday.


Issued at 509 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Mid and High cover will be on the increase in the latter half of
the TAF period...with cigs lowering but staying VFR during the
late morning-pm hours. Winds will become gusty southwest as the
front approaches, and shift to west/northwest as the front makes
its passage toward the effective end valid time.



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