Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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982
FXUS63 KPAH 291729 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

As a surface trof of lower pressure works across the lower Ohio
valley today, it will help focus updrafts in high CAPE, diurnally
charged/souped environ, for scattered showers/thunderstorms with
locally heavy rains possible, and a marginal risk of svr storms.

By the weekend, H5 heights start to ease back up, with surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes. However, overall height falls
further up the Ohio Valley, and height rises in the High Plains,
means the teleconnected flow pattern will be nwlys aloft across
the mid Mississippi valley, which will be an enabling flow for
initiating mainly diurnal shower/storm activity. Highest pops will
be around the rim of the high pressure, ie across our south and
west, tapering to lowest pops north and east, closer to the
surface High.

Seasonal late July temps will finish out the weekend/month.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A warmup to more extreme heat/humidity is anticipated next work
week as the Height falls over the mid and upper Ohio valley shift
eastward, with ridging High Plains heights working their way
across the middle and upper Mississippi valley. The net result for
us will thus be a building of heat/humidity with apparent temps
reaching or exceeding triple digits on the daily.

Accompanying the extreme heat/humidity, will be daily storm
chances, esp during the charged diurnal hours of the pm-evening.
Monday will be particularly wet, with good coverage of
showers/storms along a warm sector developing/lifting across the
area in response to surface Low pressure taking shape in the
Plains states. Daily storm chances continue unabated for the
remainder of the week, with high PW`s offering locally heavy rain
potential with any time storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain poised just to
the north and west of the TAF sites through the period. Through
the first half of the period mostly VFR cigs/vsbys except
possible MVFR in SHRA/TSRA, then possibly IFR cigs/vsbys
overnight. Winds generally out of the southwest to west AOB 6
knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP



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