Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230448
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Lots of dry air currently over the region, but winds are hanging
in there, so radiational cooling is not getting out of hand.
Clouds at any level have had a hard time spreading into our region
so far this evening. Made adjustments to slow the increase in
cloud cover late this evening, and to hold temperatures up a
degree or two through the night. A few places along I-64 may
briefly touch the freezing mark near daybreak, but it should not
last long enough to matter to any active vegetation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Strong high pressure to our east will move slowly away tonight,
with a H5 ridge axis approaching from the west. Mid and upper
level clouds will persist in the NW/SE flow aloft overnight. We
will be at or just above MOS for lows with a light wind persisting
and passing clouds.

Thursday, all the models show some isentropic lift at 305k, with
mid level moisture and qg forcing present. However, it`s not stand
out, and the atmosphere at 925mb and below will be very dry.
While we do not plan a mention at this time given low confidence,
a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out, especially SEMO, into SRN
IL, west KY. The CMC/GFS have had greater moisture, while the
EC/NAM fairly dry.

We expect dry weather Thursday night as the H5 ridge moves across
the area. Kept slight chance PoPs in Friday morning, though we
removed thunder given lack of instability forecast. Moisture is
fairly shallow, so it may be mostly clouds, maybe drizzle or
sprinkles. By afternoon, PoPs mainly across SEMO for convection.
PoPs will increase from west to east Friday night in response to
increasing ascent ahead of an approaching H5 low, forecast to be
over the Central Plains by 06z Saturday. For this time frame, we
used a model consensus as solutions have lined up reasonably.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active weather pattern is expected through the extended forecast.
Models are in good agreement showing a surface low over northeast
Missouri at 00z Sunday.  The associated cold front will push across
the PAH forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, with widespread
showers and some thunderstorms expected.  Models remain in good
agreement into Sunday, showing the precipitation east of our region
by midday.  Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild both ahead of
and behind the front.

It will only be a brief break from the wet conditions Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.  Models bring another surface low
from the southern Plains Sunday night into northern Arkansas by 00z
Tuesday.  Another surge of moisture is expected ahead of the low and
associated cold front, with showers spreading across western
portions of our region late Sunday night.  On Monday, instability
will increase with the closer proximity of the low, so showers and
some thunderstorms are expected.  Showers will continue into Monday
night, but any thunderstorm activity should remain confined to our
southern counties.  Models take the low northeast of our region by
12z Tuesday, and shower chances will decrease.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, models differ quite a bit on
timing of our next weather system, and for now just went with on and
off low chances for showers.  Temperatures for the first half of the
work week will remain well above seasonal normals, with lows in the
upper 40s to middle 50s, and highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The 06Z TAFs are VFR. Winds initially from the east or east
northeast will veer to southeast by midday Thursday. South
southeast winds will increase significantly Thursday night, but
there is some variation amongst the latest guidance on how fast
that will occur. For now have gusts into the teens entering the
forecasts at 03Z, which is on the early side of the range. As for
clouds, a solid layer of 6-9kft clouds is moving eastward through
southeast Missouri at this time and should cover the entire area
by daybreak. This layer should scatter out in the west by
afternoon and in the evening at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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