Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022311

611 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Upper level disturbance in the lower Mississippi River Valley was
causing some isolated showers to our southwest this
afternoon...with a few cells getting fairly close to our SEMO
counties. The RUC and HRRR models seem to be overdone by showing
some activity developing over us this afternoon. Cu field looks
fairly shallow right now, but will continue to monitor for any
isolated development. The aforementioned upper level feature will
shift east tonight.

The 12Z model consensus continues to advertise high pressure at the
surface and aloft that will keep the area mainly dry through
Friday. The only exception to this may be on Thursday night into
Friday when some energy may drop south on the east side of the
upper high. Not every model is advertising any QPF and there
really isn`t too much moisture to work with other than a shallow
layer between 850-700mb. But an isolated or widely scattered storm
is possible. Too low of a probability to mention in the forecast
but would not be surprised to see a few cells out there.

Temperatures will remain above normal. Looks like low level temps
rise a degree or so for tomorrow and given the abundant
sunshine...believe we could be a tad warmer on Thursday. Some of the
guidance supports this notion as well. We could see temperatures
drop a degree or so in the eastern sections on Friday though as the
upper ridge breaks down a bit there. However, it will still be
fairly warm. Lower 90s for highs and upper 60s to around 70 degrees
for lows looks to be the norm for the next few days along with light
and variable winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Average confidence in the short term period due to model
differences, especially toward the end of the period. Very few
changes to the long term with not much to discuss.

At the beginning of the long term period, weak high pressure at the
surface and aloft will be the predominant features affecting our
CWA`s weather, therefore dry conditions are forecast for the first
couple of days.

Beyond that and through most of the long term period, the
development of weaknesses or slight shifting of the axis of the
aforementioned high pressure will make it possible for isolated to
scattered convection to pop up given the moisture and instability
already in place.

With the approach and passage of a cold front, precipitation chances
slowly increase and eventually overspread the entire CWA by the end
of the period.

Above normal temperatures at the beginning of the period will slowly
cool back to near normal readings by the end of the period.


Issued at 610 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With the exception of visibilities in the 06z-13z Thursday time
frame, VFR conditions will dominate the WFO PAH TAF locations
through 00z Friday. Diurnally induced local lift will provide the
scattered cloud cover between 4kft-7kft AGL across the TAF sites
during the day.

Given the sharp surface boundary gradient, dew and shallow fog
will again be possible tonight, mainly after 06z Thursday.
Addressed isolated LVIFR to LIFr visibilities beyond main MVFR
visibilities with a mention of MIFG overnight.




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