Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 252320 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The short term will be dominated by a storm system and cold front
to impact the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

An upper-level disturbance will dig into the base of a larger-
scale trough near the Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas
Wednesday and then lift north northeast through Arkansas and
Missouri Wednesday night. An accompanying cold front will provide
a focus for thunderstorm development as it moves east into
southeast Missouri after 21Z Wednesday and through the entire area
Wednesday night.

Model soundings indicate that a strong elevated mixed layer will
cap our area late tonight and at least into early Wednesday
afternoon. There may be some light showers or drizzle over
southeast Missouri very late tonight and Wednesday morning, but
thunderstorms are not likely to develop until the cold front
enters the region.

The upper-level disturbance will provide very strong lift to erode
the capping inversion, and allow for widespread thunderstorm
development. Initial storms may produce some large hail, but
damaging winds will be the primary concern into the evening.
Surface-based instability still remains a concern with low
overcast skies expected over southeast Missouri for much of the

The disturbance and the associated forcing will move quickly
north northeast across southeast Missouri and through the western
half of southern Illinois through the evening, providing a
relatively small window of opportunity for higher end severe wind
producing storms in the form of bow echoes and embedded supercell
structures. The higher-end severe potential should diminish as
the storms progress east of Interstate 57 and into west Kentucky,
but the overall severe threat will remain at least to the Wabash
River and the Lakes in Kentucky.

Low-level shear would be sufficient to support a tornado threat
regardless of the storm mode, but questions about low-level
moisture and surface-based instability may limit the tornadic

Our next storm system will begin to impact the area overnight
Thursday night, as a warm front approaches our our region. We
will have a small chance of showers over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, but decided not to add in thunder at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

High confidence in an unsettled weather pattern that will be with us
through Sunday with periodic rain chances. Less confidence in the
exact timing of individual shortwaves that will pivot near/through
our region.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the southeast
U.S. into this weekend, while an upper level trough digs into the
southern Rockies. This trough will eject east into the Southern
Plains on Sunday before lifting northeast into the Great Lakes on
Monday. The Quad State will be within deep southwesterly flow Friday
through Sunday, with plenty of moisture to play with. Depending on
how much instability is present, will dictate whether we see some
strong to severe thunderstorms. Right now Sunday looks to have the
best shot, with better dynamics and lift ahead of the main upper
level trough. SPC does have western Kentucky in their 15% day 6

Although the daily details will need some ironing out, it looks like
a warm front will lift north across the area on Friday as an area of
low pressure tracks off to our northwest. The front gets pushed back
south Friday night before lifting back over the area on Saturday. At
this time, it appears like much of western KY may be dry for much of
the day on Saturday. Depending how far north the warm front gets,
will decide whether more of the area ends up dry during the day.
Rain chances will ramp back up Saturday night into Sunday as the
main trough gets closer. Model guidance has been consistent in
placing the heaviest QPF over southeast Missouri into southwest
Illinois and points westward. Amounts are subject to change this far
in advance but looks like a healthy swath of 3 to 5 inches may occur
in this area. Lightest amounts look to be over the Pennyrile region
of west Kentucky.

The cold front and associated precipitation should be lifting out of
the area by late Sunday night into Monday morning. Dry conditions
are expected Monday and Tuesday, along with cooler conditions
initially on Monday. Another potential system is on the horizon in
the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame next week.


Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

VFR conditions through the first half of the period, then
cigs/vsbys gradually become MVFR with the approach of a cold
front. VCTS possible at KCGI after 22Z. Southerly winds generally
AOB 12 knots through the first half of the period, then become
gusty with gusts of 20-25 knots through the rest of the period.




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