Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 122016
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeast half of the
CWA this afternoon in the vicinity of a dissipating warm front
should slowly decrease in intensity and coverage through the
afternoon hours. After the dissipation of the ongoing convection,
the region should remain dry through the night.

With the approach of a frontal boundary, precipitation chances begin
to make their way into the far northern sections of our CWA first
thing Sunday morning. Precipitation probabilities increase from
north to south through Monday as the boundary draws closer. The
highest precipitation chances will be greatest area wide Sunday
night and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has the area generally
north of a line from Van Buren to Charleston Missouri to Greenville
Kentucky outlooked for a slight chance of severe thunderstorms
mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. With wind fields picking up a
bit on Sunday, shear will increase so damaging winds are a good bet
with any storms that become severe, and a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. With freezing AOA 15K feet, the chance for large hail is
rather slim. Precipitable water values in the 1.75-2.0 inch will
cause storms to produce locally heavy rainfall as well.

The aforementioned boundary is forecast to dissipate as it moves
across our area on Monday. Even with the demise of the boundary,
there will still be plenty instability, moisture, and increasing
wind fields to support thunderstorms, some of which may be severe
(slight risk) generally south of a line from Mount Carmel Illinois
to Perryville to Poplar Bluff Missouri. Hazards will be similar to
those expected Sunday and Sunday evening.

Monday night a strong cold front will drop out of the plains and
blast its way across the CWA. Most of the instability and moisture
will have been swept away with convection on Monday, but there
should be enough left over to produce at least scattered convection
through the evening hours. A small chance of convection may linger
over the far southeast sections after midnight.

In the wake of the frontal passage, a very pleasant airmass will
settle across the area through the rest of the week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

The weather over much of the upcoming week is shaping up to be
cooler and less humid. In the wake of the early week frontal
passage, the core of high pressure will migrate from the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late
week. In the upper levels, northwest flow will prevail with the
region between an upper level ridge over the west and a trough in
the east.

By Friday and Saturday, models indicate a slow return of moisture as
an upper level wave slides east from the southern Plains into the
Deep South. At this point, there is some question as to how far
north the impacts of this system will reach. Decided to introduce a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern portions of
the area Friday and Saturday.

The period will start off with unseasonably cool temperatures. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday should remain in the mid to upper 70s with
nighttime lows in the mid to upper 50s. A gradual warming trend will
take place late in the week as highs climb back into the lower and
mid 80s, with lows in the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Showers and thunderstorms firing along a warm frontal boundary
affecting the KEVV/KOWB sites should move off to the east early
on. May see MVFR vsbys in TSRA. Other than that, VFR conditions
should prevail through the period. May see VCSH/VCTS at KEVV
between 15-18Z. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots should increase to
around 12-14 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RJP






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