000
FXUS63 KPAH 171725
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHORT TERM WEATHER SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCLEAR MAINLY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS AN E-W STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WE HAVE A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES OF
ENERGY UPSTREAM...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS BROUGHT
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS
THE H5 ENERGY TAPS INTO THE MOISTURE AT HAND. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
PEAK AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PULLS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
APPEAR TO WASH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT AS IT APPROACHES...SO ITS HARD
TO SAY WHEN OR IF WE WILL HAVE A FROPA. EITHER WAY...PRECIP
CHANCES START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE
CRANKING OUT A SMATTERING OF QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION...SO
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE WORK WEEK...BUT DECREASES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS HAS MIGRATED EASTWARD MORE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS MITIGATING POPS FOR THE WEEK AND
PUT THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHICH ORIGINALLY
WAS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY TWO DAYS PAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE WORK WEEK AND DECREASED CERTAINTY FOR THE
WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE RUN AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE DAYS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ACCOUNT FOR
THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY WHICH
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXTENDED STRATEGY. ONE THINGS THAT HAS REMAINED
CONSTANT IS THE WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA TODAY AND WE
CONTINUE TO EMBRACE THIS TREND WITH TEMPS HEADING TOWARD THE 90S AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HRRR MESOSCALE
MODEL HAS HAD A GOOD OVERALL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER
KCGI/KPAH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEVV 21Z-02Z FRAME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM