Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The main story for today remains the low overcast conditions that
cover the entire forecast area as of 08Z. The 925mb RH from the
NAM and RAP have handled the low clouds very well to this point
and they were followed closely for cloud trends and temperatures
today. The clouds should erode from the west, resulting in plenty
of sunshine this afternoon over our western 4 to 6 counties in
southeast Missouri. However, the remainder of the area will not
see much clearing until late this afternoon or this evening. If
the NAM/RAP trends are right we may be clearing out the eastern
half of the region too quickly this evening.

To be consistent with the cloud forecast, the RAP temperatures
were used for trends through the day. Most locations east of the
MS River will not climb much above 60 degrees this afternoon, but
out in Ripley and Carter counties temperatures may climb well into
the 70s.

South southeast winds will develop throughout the region on
Friday, and with mostly sunny skies expected, temperatures will
climb well above normal, generally ranging from 75 east to 80
west. South winds will increase and may be stronger than forecast
on Saturday. As a result, temperatures will continue to trend
warmer with highs ranging from 84 east to 89 west. For reference,
normal highs are in the lower 70s over most of the region.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF bring our next cold front into our northwest
border region by 12Z Sunday, while the 00Z NAM keeps it farther
northwest. We will have a sliver of a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms along our northwest border after midnight Saturday
night. Otherwise it will be a very mild night with lows only in
the mid 60s, which is only around 5 degrees cooler than our
normal high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Models are in good agreement with the cold front extending northeast
to southwest across the PAH forecast area at 12z Sunday, then just
southeast of our region by 18z Sunday.  With the majority of the
precipitation post frontal, we have high chance to likely pops for
showers and some thunderstorms in our northern and western counties
to slight chances in our southeast counties Sunday morning, with
high chance to likely pops across the entire area Sunday afternoon.
Chances will decrease Sunday night from northwest to southeast, with
a few showers and maybe a couple of storms lingering only in west
Kentucky after midnight.

High pressure will build across the central U.S. Monday, and slowly
slide east through mid week.  Temperatures will be well above normal
Sunday, then by Monday we will be a few degrees below seasonal
normals.  Readings will moderate a couple of degrees by Tuesday,
then a return of southerly winds by Wednesday will provide seasonal


Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Main concern is when the low clouds will clear out of our area. Very
light low level winds are not doing much to push the clouds out. The
models keep low level winds light through Thursday, which means the
back edge of the clouds will not make much progress. MVFR cigs will
persist through the morning hours, and there could be short intervals
of IFR cigs early in the morning. During the afternoon hours, the area
of clouds will likely shrink from the south and west due to diurnal
heating and mixing out of the moisture. It appears that most locations
should become VFR by evening. Winds will be light through the period.
Some MVFR fog is likely during the early morning hours.




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