Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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048
FXUS63 KPAH 222052
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
252 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

We will begin the short term period with a continuation of near
record warmth as surface ridging continues ahead of the next
advancing cold front over the Plains and Midwest states. Morning
low temps Thu in the 50s will be followed by day time highs in the
lower to mid 70s despite the presence of considerable cloud cover
much of the day.

Aformentioned cold front will then approach and move through the
forecast area Friday/Friday evening. There still looks to be
adequate shear, forcing and instability  Friday afternoon into
Friday evening to support a threat of severe storms. The overall
return of moisture ahead of the front could be an inhibitor, but
if storms do indeed manage to form out head of the front within
the warm sector, could see isolated supercells with damaging
winds and hail the main storm risks. However, given the expected
environmental conditions, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. The bigger severe/tornado risk may stay just to our n/e, a
bit closer to the sfc low/triple point and upper low, but we
definitely need to keep a close eye on the evolution of this
system the next 24 to 48 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

High pressure centered over the Central Plains at 12z Saturday will
slide off the North Carolina coast by 00z Monday.  Dry and cooler
conditions can be expected for the weekend.  Temperatures Saturday
and Saturday night will be a little below seasonal normals, with
conditions moderating to near normal for Sunday.

By Sunday night, models show low pressure over the Southern Plains
moving northeast, with GFS much faster than the ECMWF.  The Canadian
is out on its own, so focused on the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
Despite the GFS faster movement of the low, both models spread
precipitation across our region Sunday night continuing into early
Monday.  By late Monday, the models timing differences are more
prominent, with GFS drying us out by Monday afternoon.  The ECMWF
lingers precipitation across southern portions of the PAH forecast
area Monday afternoon into Monday night.  By Tuesday, model
differences decrease confidence, with the GFS faster with another
area of low pressure coming out of the Central Plains.  Even with
timing differences, it looks like we will have a period where more
significant rainfall will be likely. Went with low chances in mainly
our far southern counties Monday afternoon into Monday night, then
went with increasing shower chances along with some thunderstorms
Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Went with decreasing chances from
west to east Wednesday afternoon.

South winds will again lead to well above normal temperatures Monday
through Wednesday, with the warmest day being Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 103 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

MVFR cigs may clear out for awhile tonight with the setting of the
sun, only to reform late tonight or early in the day on Thu. winds
will be light AOB 10 kts from the south.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM



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