Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 162138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
338 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Rain has pushed east of the region this afternoon, with low clouds
hanging around. As high pressure slides by to our north, clearing
will spread in from the northwest, although it may not make it into
all of our southern counties. Northerly winds have been gusty
today with some observations up to 25 mph. Winds will subside this
evening and become light overnight.

Main concern this period is with a disturbance that is currently
over New Mexico, which will spread quickly east/northeastward
towards are region late tonight into tomorrow morning. Precipitation
looks to enter our southern counties of southeast Missouri late
tonight after 3am, and progress northeastward through the morning
hours. Thermal profiles appear cold enough for some snow to mix in,
especially at the onset of the precipitation. However, most areas
are expected to change over to rain fairly quickly in the morning.
The short duration of the snow, combined with warm ground temps,
should lead to little if any accumulation in most locations.
However, there is some potential at a little accumulation in a
narrow zone in southeast Missouri, generally from Van Buren to
Greenville and Marble Hill. Amounts here are expected to range from
a light dusting up to several tenths of an inch.

The majority of the rain should quickly exit from west to east from
late morning into mid afternoon, with only some lingering shower
activity left behind. QPF amounts look to range from around a
tenth of an inch in far northern counties to over a half inch in
southern counties of western Kentucky into the bootheel of
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Variability continues to be an issue with the weekend regional model
blended guidance for the extended forecast period. Although low
amplitude ridging still remains in force across the WFO PAH forecast
area Monday through early Wednesday, there has been some variation
in the western extension of the low level ridge across the Gulf of
Mexico. This variability is allowing for moisture advection
northward the Lower Mississippi Valley as early as Tuesday into the
WFO PAH forecast area.

At this point, there is low confidence that enough lift and
instability will be in place late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, but for collaborative purposes, have kept a small chance of
precipitation in place Tuesday night. However, some of the model
guidance suggests there may even be enough elevated instability to
warrant at least an slight chance of thunderstorms as a weak warm
frontal zone develops to the south and west with time.

There does not be significant forcing as the warm frontal zone lifts
north of the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday into Thursday, but
suspect the guidance is keying in on warm air advection showers
being isentropically lifted across the area.

The channeled vorticity and enhanced lift from an approaching
northern stream, positively tilted, shortwave on Thursday will
tighten the baroclinic zone and lift across the WFO PAH forecast
area from north to south Thursday into Friday, with the best QPF
expected Thursday night along and just ahead of the cold frontal
passage Thursday evening.  The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian are slowly
getting closer on the timing of the frontal passage.

A light wintry mix still seems to be possible early Friday morning
and again Friday evening, but the transition zone of temperatures
versus available moisture for precipitation continues to shrink with
successive model runs.

There was more consensus with surrounding office to move
precipitation out of the WFO PAH forecast area Saturday and Saturday
night as high pressure builds in.  This may be short-lived by Sunday
and Sunday night, as the remnants of the Southwest U.S. closed low
moves across the southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley,
including the WFO PAH forecast area.

The trend the last several model runs has been to increase
temperatures at a rate of 3 degrees a day...with ten degree spikes
each day from Monday through Wednesday.  Not sure, if it will be
totally realized due to precipitation chances on Thursday, but the
GFS and other guidance is even suggesting 70+ temperatures in
southeast sections of the WFO PAH forecast area Thursday afternoon.
Not too optimistic in seeing temperatures that high this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Aside from some scattered light rain primarily over west KY, the
majority of the rain has push east of our area at midday. MVFR
cigs remain across the entire region, with the current forecast
reflecting a slower clearing then previously expected, and may not
be until late afternoon/early evening for many locations. Other
issue is gusty northerly winds around 20 kts or slightly higher
for the next several hours. Winds subside this evening/overnight
as the influence of high pressure to our north overspreads the
area. Another system looks to spread IFR/MVFR cigs from southwest
to northeast tomorrow morning, with the southern two thirds of
the region seeing the lowest restrictions. Rain will accompany
the lower cigs, along with MVFR vsbys and the potential at lower
vsbys in the heavier precipitation. Some potential at snow mixing
in, especially across the northern portions of southeast Missouri,
mainly northwest of KCGI.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...SP



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