Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270654
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
154 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING...WILL
EFFECTIVELY FROPA FA BY BEGINNING OF FORECAST. WHILE THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE...NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY STILL HELP INDUCE ISOLATED DIURNALLY FLARED STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE DO ANTICIPATE THE L60S DEW POINTS PERCHED JUST
UPSTREAM TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (SUN NITE-MON NITE)...MEAN
ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE
POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE SOWDY2-3 GRAPHIC OUTLOOKING
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE`LL UP POPS
ACCORDINGLY/COLLABORATIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ESSENTIALLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL FLOW. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
TABLES SUGGEST THAT 1+ SD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
GOING TO BE IN THE AREA FROM 00Z THURSDAY TO ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
IS ALL AHEAD OF A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH THAT IN
MIND KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT ANYTHING EXACTLY AND KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING EACH PERIOD. DID ATTEMPT TO REMOVE WHERE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS
WRITING...HAVING RECENTLY PASSED KCGI/KPAH AND NOW BEARING DOWN ON
KEVV/KOWB. ITS PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO ISOLATED PRE DAWN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS MIXING LENDS TO
ELEVATING CLOUD BASES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE SOME OF THESE
INTO DIURNALLY FUELED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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