Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011923
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Low pressure aloft is seen over central Indiana, and it`s related
to convection we see narrowly clipping our northeastern counties
and just beyond. Models depict this low circulating/drifting
slowly southeastward with time. As it does so...it distances
itself from the PAH FA...and the isolated Pops mainly across our
north will slowly wane/dissipate. Surface High pressure builds
across the middle Ohio valley as the wave, now open, departs
across Delmarva by the end of the short term forecast period.
Upper Heights gradually rise as well with time, with strong
synoptic scale ridging building in from the west.

All of the aforementioned means despite lingering isolated pops
today, we`ll transition from our mostly dry to completely dry
forecast. Temps will continue their slight uptick of a degree or
two per day, resulting in some nr 90/low 90s and nr 70 readings by
the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Models have been pretty consistent
showing this pattern for many runs now. The problems lie in the
small details that models are having a time with from rum to run and
that involves chances for precipitation.

Very little difference in temps or humidity is expected from day to
day throughout the holiday weekend and into early next week. 850 mb
temperatures stay fairly consistent in the upper teens for most of
the extended period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
too oppressive for the first part of the weekend. However, even as
sfc winds shift to southerly by Sunday, dewpoints do not really
change too much...and should remain in the 65-70 degree range.

With regards to any chances for precipitation, models have been
different on each run for the past few days, on what type of
weakness or disturbance in the upper level pattern may trigger some
thunderstorm development. There is also questions as to when and how
much moisture will advect into the region. Right now, there is
nothing highly organized to warrant changing any plans over. Even
the frontal boundary, continues to having timing and strength issues
between the models. Therefore, will maintain slight chance pops for
toward the end of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu field impacting flight terminals with
predominantly scattered decks...although a temporary/isolated bkn
deck or even vicinity shower (northeast.. KEVV/KOWB) is not
altogether a dismissed possibility even if not currently reflected
in the package. Patchy fog tonight may again offer restricted
vsbys at the terminals and tmrw will again see diurnally fueled
bases scattered in the low VFR range.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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