Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 311222
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Writing has definitely been on the wall for awhile now that we
will be dealing mainly with a rain situation this weekend as
opposed to a wintry one. Models continue to come back warmer and
warmer with each successive run, with most locations into the mid
and upper 40s by Sunday afternoon as sfc low passes well to the
north over central IL. Just a couple days ago, this same low was
progged by many models to pass much farther south through TN.

Today will be seasonably fairly mild and rain free ahead of the
upcoming system Sunday. Considerable high clouds may limit high
temps some, but readings should still sneak into the mid and upper
40s in most areas.

To go along with the warmer solution on Sunday, the models have
increased rainfall closer to an inch in the south, with 1/2" to
2/3" in the northeast. The precipitable water in the GFS is still
close to an inch in the south Sunday, which is around the 75th
percentile compared to normal for this time of year. Maybe we can
put a another dent in the drought across west Kentucky. It should
be quite similar to last Sunday when it rained steadily most of
the day in many locations.

It will be well into Sunday evening before the cold air begins to
surge through the area, and by this time most of the deep
moisture will be moving east of the area. Could still see a brief
change to very light snow or flurries, but should be of no impact.
However, any left over puddles on roadways may freeze later Sunday
night as temps fall back below freezing. Most of the roads will
likely dry in the brisk northwest winds behind the front tho.
Winds may gust up close to 30 mph Sunday night. Temps on Monday
will likely struggle to reach freezing in most areas, and will
probably stay in the 20s up along the I-64 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

The primary concern in the extended remains a small chance for
precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday during the transition to
the next arctic air mass. Forecast confidence through the period is
decent, but takes a hit mid week due to model variations with the
next system.

The period will start off with a relatively flat upper air pattern
on Wednesday. Combined with strong southerly low level flow, this
should allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 40s--
perhaps even topping the 50 degree mark in western Kentucky
Wednesday afternoon.

All models agree that a transition back to northwesterly flow will
take place late in the week as an upper level ridge develops in the
west with a trough in the east. This development will force another
surge of arctic air into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

It is during this transition that model differences develop. The 00Z
ECMWF remains the fastest with frontal passage and shows absolutely
no precipitation during this time. In contrast, the GEM, and in
particular the GFS, are somewhat slower with frontal passage. Both
also indicate more moisture behind the front which could lead to the
potential for light precipitation.

Given the continued model differences, will keep with a low chance
mention of light precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday. If
anything does occur, the temperature profile looks cold enough to
support light snow--but nothing substantial at this point.

Much colder air will build into the region Wednesday night into
Friday as arctic high pressure drops south from Canada. Highs both
Thursday and Friday look to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with
lows by Thursday night in the teens. The period will also be quite
windy given the transition in air masses.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 615 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Mid and high will spread across the TAF region today and tonight,
but VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will be light through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM






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