Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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208
FXUS63 KPAH 240945
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Not all that much going on at the present time, with just some
scattered light showers. Solid shield precipitation is up across
the KLSX area. This trend will continue until shortly after
daybreak. After that, we should see a gradual increase in coverage
through the day, primarily this afternoon and evening ahead of an
approach cold front.

Things could get quite active late today and this evening. Very
impressive low level shear profiles, low LCL`s and increasing
forcing for ascent means strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated. Homographs SEMO, west KY, and forecast STP and SCP
parameters point to the possibility for a few tornadoes, outlined
by SPC fairly well we think. Otherwise main hazard will be
scattered damaging winds. Even with marginal instability, the
impressive low level turning and degree of speed shear seen in
forecast hodographs is concerning.

Also, the flood threat continues, with no changes to the ongoing
Flood Watch. Enhanced convection could cause some Flash Flooding
to occur, especially across the existing Area Flood Warned areas
of southeast MO into west KY. The bulk of the activity should push
east of west KY and southwest IN shortly after midnight, with dry
weather forecast for Sunday through Monday as weak high pressure
moves across the area. It will be fairly mild behind the front.
Cool at night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The first part of the extended forecast period will be dry and mild
on the backside of high surface pressure. By midweek, ahead of a
developing trof of low surface pressure, the Gulf is forecasted to
open up.

Moisture is expected to surge northward by Wed evening especially,
but warm advection showers will probably occur earlier in the day.
Instability does not appear to be enough for any more than an
isolated lightning strike or two with this system.

The 00Z GEFS/ECENES means were very similar, however, the
deterministic ECMWF has shown some inconsistency lately, plus it had
a slower, more unphased northern/southern stream solution than most
other medium range models. The general idea is that mid level
shortwave energy will traverse the central Plains by Wed night,
providing large scale lift of moisture and development of the
surface trof, the axis of which should pass to our south. Model
consensus suggests that most associated shower activity with this
system should be out of the PAH forecast area by Thu evening as the
eastward-moving upper low closes and strengthens just to our north
(in most model solutions).

All models indicate ridging aloft and high surface pressure should
ensure dry mild conditions Thu night on as the new airmass will be
of Pacific origin.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A warm front will move slowly northward through west Kentucky and
southeast Missouri on Saturday morning. Widespread showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms will accompany this front. Patchy areas of
ifr will become more widespread as the precip increases in coverage
during the early morning hours.

During the midday hours, there will be a lull in the rain. However,
an organized area of heavy rain and thunderstorms will overspread
the taf sites during the mid to late afternoon hours. This rain will
occur ahead of a cold front, which will cross se Missouri and far
west KY during the evening hours. Gusty winds, scattered thunder,
and heavy rain will occur along and ahead of the front. The front
will finally cross sw Indiana and nw Kentucky shortly after the end
of this taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

Short Term...CN
Long Term....DB
Aviation.....MY



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