Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290434
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CATCH UP TO RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH CONTINUE UNTIL IT GIVES UP BY AROUND
03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON NEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 115
DEGREE RANGE. MANY PUBLIC REPORTS CLOSER TO 120 CAME INTO THE
NWS...AND THE OFFICE ITSELF HIT 113 A FEW TIMES. WILL NEED TO
EXTEND HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. TOMORROW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS HOT AS TODAY...EVEN THOUGH STORM CHCS MAY
INCREASE SOME WITH A FRONT COMING INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...BASED
ON WHAT WE SAW TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO EXPAND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO SW IL/WRN KY. WILL NOW
INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE CARBONDALE/MARION AREA DOWN THROUGH PADUCAH
AND MAYFIELD LOCATIONS.

A BONAFIED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT...BUT IN ESSENCE THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO
BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. AGAIN...SCATTERED MAINLY
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WED...BUT UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE WEAK.

MUCH NICER MID SUMMER TIME WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
80S TO NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AT THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE
REGION. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...KEEPING THE CWA RAIN FREE ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS A LITTLE MESSIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO HINT AT A FROPA OR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH
SOMETIME DURING THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO HINT AT IT AS WELL.
DO NOT PLAN ON TRYING TO NIT PICK SPECIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT FAR
OUT IN THE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROPA THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SURE LOOKS PUNY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
WATCH OUT FOR MORE POTENT AND PERSISTENT SIGNALS FOR PRECIP THOUGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
NOT GET TOO OUT OF CONTROL EITHER GIVEN THE LACK OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

KOWB RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM A THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING...AND STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR OR LOWER FOG
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
MAY MAKE IT TO KEVV BY MORNING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING THERE. WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

MIXING JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE WINDS TO
WEST NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND THEN NORTH BY EVENING. SCATTERED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ084-085-
     088-089-092>094.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>083-
     086-087-090-091.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ001>006.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ007>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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