Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 042231
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Most of the near term will be fairly benign when come to the
sensible weather across the quad state region. However, an
unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from
the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in
areas east of the MS River on Thursday. Some locations over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western KY may
struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu afternoon. Friday looks much
nicer area wide as the upper low shifts east to the Eastern
Seaboard allowing a ridge to build in from the west. After chilly
lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime readings should climb
rapidly into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Models are in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over the
central Plains and a cold front sliding south into the PAH forecast
area Saturday night, with the front bisecting our area by 12z
Sunday. Models vary a little on just how far south the front will
get, but they do agree in keeping precipitation chances mainly north
of the front Saturday night into Sunday night. This results in most
of our southern counties remaining dry Saturday night into Sunday
evening. Went with good chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and much of southern Illinois
Saturday night, with chances pivoting to include southeast Missouri
by Sunday night.

For early in the work week, models show the surface low meandering
over the Central Plains finally moving slowly east as an upper level
ridge over our region weakens and slides east.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be fairly low on Monday, then increase
significantly Monday night as the low moves a little closer.  Models
indicate our best precipitation chances and most significant
rainfall amounts will be late Monday night into Tuesday night.  By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, models diverge on timing and track of
the low, with the ECMWF faster and farther north than the GFS.  The
ECMWF solution would give us dry conditions for Wednesday, while the
GFS solution keeps chances of showers and storms in our area through
the day. Based on the strength and slow movement of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, preference has been to go with the
slower solutions, so continued chances of showers and storms into
Wednesday.

Southwest flow south of the front will keep us unseasonably warm
Saturday into Saturday night, with highs Saturday in the lower 80s
and lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 degree range.  With the
front bisecting our area Sunday, our temperature range will be wider
with highs in the lower 70s north to lower 80s southwest. With the
front in our region and additional clouds and rain for the first
half of the week, temperatures will be fairly consistent, with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Upper Low will be dropping south across Ohio valley tonight. As it
does, trajectories draw low VFR clouds into/across terminals.
These will be especially diurnally enhanced, so despite some
scattering tonight, expect cigs to develop again tmrw from mid am
to mid pm. Northerlies likewise will enhance/peak with gusts
during the heating hours...and wane on either side of the
insolation curve.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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