Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Clearing has taken place at KCGI/KPAH and it might be another hour
or two before we get rid of the clouds in our eastern TAF sites. A
band of mid level clouds will stream overhead tonight as weak warm
advection develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
This will pave the way for VFR conditions and more sunshine on
Friday. Northwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight as the high moves through. Winds will become
southerly on the back side of the high Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP






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