Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 062337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
537 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The primary concern in the short term is the Arctic surge
Wednesday night into Thursday, and whether there will be any
precipitation associated with it. Apparently the NAM got a little
out of hand on the midnight shift, but it has come back into the
fold on the 12Z run.

The GFS, ECMWF and CMC all are completely dry, and have no sign
of surface development on the leading edge of the Arctic airmass.
The 12Z NAM develops a hundredth of precipitation along the
southern border of the region, mainly southeast Missouri in the
evening, and west Kentucky in the overnight hours. It has no
surface development either, but has a bit better moisture working
with the 700mb trough moving through the region at that time.

NAM soundings are a bit dubious in the depth of the moist layer,
and ice nucleation is not a given. Gut feeling is that if there is
enough lift to generate bonafide precipitation, the saturated
layer will be deep/cold enough for ice nucleation. Temperatures
will not fall that quickly in the evening, so much of the area
that has the light QPF will be at or just above freezing. Decided
to go with a mix of rain or snow, but with only slight chance PoPs
and no snow or ice accumulations.

Otherwise for tonight, the low clouds are expected to clear most
of the area this evening. There is a nice hole in the clouds over
southeast Missouri that is leading to some scattering into the
southern tip of Illinois that might lead to quicker clearing over
the Purchase area this afternoon. The pressure gradient is going
to really weaken overnight, so winds may go calm in some areas.
Lowered the existing MinT grid a degree or so across the board,
but that may not be cold enough, if the winds drop out.

Clouds will be spreading back to the southeast across the area on
Wednesday. This will have some impact on temperatures, especially
in southern Illinois. High temperatures appear to be on the cool
side of guidance. The cold air will show up late Wednesday night.
Most areas will be well into the 20s for lows Thursday morning,
and will struggle to climb back to the freezing mark Thursday
afternoon. The coldest air will be Thursday night/Friday morning
when all sites should be in the teens. Some single digit wind
chills will also be possible early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Arctic air in place will keep our region very chilly Friday, with
some decent moderation over the weekend.  Highs will only reach the
upper 20s to around 30 degrees Friday, with lows Friday night in the
upper teens.  The surface high will move to our east late Friday
night into Saturday, and winds will shift back to the south.  Along
with quite a bit of sunshine, highs will reach the middle to upper
30s Saturday, which is still around 10 degrees below seasonal

Models show a warm front lifting north across the PAH forecast area
Saturday night.  Chances of light snow will spread across our region
late Saturday night, then precipitation will switch over to rain
fairly quickly Sunday morning as temperatures warm through the 30s
and peak in the lower to middle 40s.  Models bring the cold front
through Sunday night, and any lingering precipitation should mix
with and change over to snow before tapering off late Sunday night
into early Monday.  The best chances and highest QPF will be Sunday,
when precipitation is primarily rain, and precipitation amounts of
either type will be very light Sunday night, so we are not concerned
with snowfall accumulation at this point.

Dry weather returns for late Monday into Tuesday.  The air mass
behind the Sunday night cold front passage is fairly mild, so
temperatures are expected to be near to just below seasonal


Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

MVFR cigs at all sites will become VFR early in the period as dry
high pressure overspreading the region scours out the low level
moisture. Gusty northwest winds early will quickly decrease to
AOB 10 knots through most of the period, then AOB 5 knots by the
end of the period.




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