Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010359

1059 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on


Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
on Monday will pick up into the 10-15 kt range as a pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front in the Plains. Some gusts
could reach 20 kts during the day.




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