Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The main forecast concern in the near term continues to be the
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today, with smaller chances over mainly eastern portions of the
area on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern through mid week will feature a trough in
the western U.S. with a ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
northeast into the Tennessee Valley. Weak impulses of energy will
help to flatten the northern extent of the ridge over the next
few days before the ridge becomes reestablished by mid week. In
the lower levels, winds have shifted to the northeast across much
of the region overnight. However, the location of the actual cold
front is probably closer to the I-70 corridor. This front has
essentially become stationary and is forecast to pivot back to the
north as a warm front later today.

Given the smattering of convection across the area on Sunday, we
see little reason to deviate from the going chance forecast of
showers and thunderstorms for today. That chance will likely be
higher this afternoon as we await the approach of weak energy and
its influence during time of peak instability. With the loss of
daytime heating tonight, thunderstorm activity should show some
decrease in coverage, but perhaps not completely with continued
weak upper level support. Chances for showers/storms really drop
off on Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the entire atmospheric
column undergoes some drying. Chances on Tuesday look best in
southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile. Much of the area
should remain dry on Wednesday with the possible exception of
western Kentucky near the Tennessee border. It is difficult to
rule out an isolated heat-of-the-day storm just about anywhere
either day though.

With the upper level ridge just east of the region and southerly
flow in the low levels, warmer than normal temperatures will
persist through the period. Highs should range from the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Forecast confidence is high from Thursday through next Monday.

Very good model agreement exists that high pressure aloft and at the
surface will persist over the four state region Thursday through
next Monday. This will allow unseasonably warm and humid conditions
to continue through the period.

The models have trended drier for most of the period, and GFS
soundings near KPAH remain capped. With no significant source for
lift, any convection that develops should be diurnal and very
isolated. This forecast will have a hodge-podge of mainly slight
chance PoPs mostly in the afternoons. The exception is Saturday when
the model consensus is for the entire area to be dry.

Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal
throughout the period.


Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Scattered showers and storms have been percolating as daytime
heating has destabilized the atmosphere today. The activity will
continue through the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance
approaches from Missouri. Local ifr conditions are occurring in
the storms, but most locations are vfr.

A period of rain showers with isolated storms is expected early
tonight, prior to the passage of the upper level disturbance. After
its passage, fog is expected to form due to the combination of high
humidity, rain-moistened ground, and light winds. Mainly mvfr
conditions are expected, but local ifr is anticipated at the fog-
prone locations. The fog will burn off by mid-morning Tuesday.




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