Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260505
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Convective trends this evening appear to matching closer to the
GFS, Canadian, NAM-WRF (NMM & ARW versions), and the HRRR guidance
for tonight through Tuesday night. Current convection over
Central/Southwest Illinois poised along low level convergence
smack in the middle of a SSW-NNE oriented theta-e plume. As the
night progresses, this theta-e axis should become more oriented
west to east, pulling richer moisture toward Southwest
Indiana/Southeast Illinois/Northwest Kentucky between 3 am and 7
am CDT. This could produce isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity in that area. Noticed even SPC has modified their
convective outlook northwest of the WFO PAH CWA reflecting a
greater severe potential along the I-70 corridor over MO/IL for
the rest of tonight.

The adjustment this evening for Tuesday will be an increase in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the middle and late
afternoon hours, a lesser coverage (especially along the AR/TN
borders) Tuesday evening, then a ramp up of PoPs/Weather late
Tuesday night. Numerical guidance has been hinting at the
propagation of an MCS southeast across the area late Tuesday
night.

Other sensible weather elements, such as sky, temperatures,
dewpoints, and winds appear to be in line. Was not surprise by the
expansion of the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk area over the area for
Tuesday. Cannot rule a stray storm producing severe or near severe
hail or wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Models are in pretty decent agreement on the track of our
upcoming weather system. Models show a surface low over eastern
Colorado at 12z Tuesday, moving over southeast Nebraska by 00z
Thursday. The warm front associated with this low will be hanging
out north of the PAH forecast area at 12z Tuesday, dropping south
into our region by Tuesday evening and remaining in our area
through Wednesday. The surface low will then bring the trailing
cold front across our area Wednesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop along the
warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night, and along and ahead of the
cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. ECMWF and GFS are in
good agreement showing scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, with the best chances in our northern
counties along the warm front. Models then show a push of moisture
into our western counties late Tuesday night, spreading east
through the day Wednesday, continuing into Wednesday night. Went
with increasing chances from north to south late tonight into
Tuesday, the went with likely pops north to good chance south
Tuesday night. Went with likely pops area wide on Wednesday, with
chances gradually decreasing from the west Wednesday night.

SPC has included all but our southern Kentucky counties in a
marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday into possibly Tuesday
evening due to some pretty impressive instability along and south
of the warm front. For Wednesday into Wednesday evening, our
western two thirds of counties are in a slight risk and the rest
of our area in a marginal as the approaching cold front moves into
our already unstable air mass. As for rainfall amounts, our
overall totals should be highest across our northern counties
where the warm front will trigger some heavier rainfall Tuesday
into Tuesday night, but isolated higher amounts will be possible
area wide Wednesday into Wednesday evening with thunderstorm
activity.

Our southerly winds will bring not only plenty of moisture into
the region for the next couple of days, but continued very warm
conditions. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through
Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight through Wednesday night
will mostly be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Tuesday will be
in the 80 to 85 degree range, then the additional cloud
cover/precipitation on Wednesday will drop readings back several
degrees into the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to multiple rain events and
some model disparity where timing, track, and coverage are concerned
with these events.

On Thursday small precipitation chances exist over the northeast
third/half of the CWA on the back side of a system that crosses the
region Wednesday night. The frontal boundary associated with this
system is forecast to become stationary just to our south Thursday
night and right now that period looks dry.

A closed H5 low moving northeast out of the four corners region on
Friday will induce a surface low on the aforementioned boundary over
the panhandle of Texas which will begin to generate an overrunning
rain event that is forecast to develop showers and thunderstorms
into our far western counties on Friday. Models not seeing eye to
eye too well with the onset of precipitation so it may not begin as
early as originally thought.

As the system slowly approaches, precipitation chances continue to
ramp up Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances area wide
being Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of the system. In
its wake, precipitation chances are expected to taper off from the
west but will linger from Sunday into Monday due to the presence of
upstream upper level energy and decent moisture.

Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1204 am CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Challenging TAFs continue with the 06z Tuesday issuance. Kept with
MVFR ceilings with the KCGI TAF, with sharp ceiling changes at
KEVV and KOWB, especially during the last 6-9 hours of the TAF
period as convective elements work along surface boundary. Most
variation in weather conditions will likely range between 14z
Tuesday to 03z Wednesday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith



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