Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 110612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A weak frontal boundary will be dragged across the PAH FA today.
Accompanying the boundary`s passage, will be a chance of
showers/storms. Current radar mosaic and lightning plot overlay
shows their existence just north of the area now, including the
occasional stroke of thunder/ltg. This is all adequately reflected
in the inherited package, so only minor timing/areal adjustments
per the latest guidance is necessary.

After its passage, the flow goes zonal and a drying/warming trend
occurs over the weekend. This is in lieu of the next developing
storm system that takes shape Sat night-early Sunday over the
Plains states. As it ejects toward us, it moves in with our next
chance pops beginning Sunday pm over SEMO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase from west to east
on Sunday as a slow moving storm system approaches from the plains.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be widespread Sunday night and
Monday as the system slowly crosses the region. Severe weather
probability with the system does not appear to be an issue at this
time. Precipitation associated with this system will taper off from
west to east Monday night. Storm total precipitation should average
between one half and one inch.

For the remainder of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be well above normal with
highs in the mid 70s. Beyond that in the wake of the aforementioned
storm system temperatures will be well below normal, however will
tend to moderate back toward normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Incoming front with Showers/isolated storms to the north of the
area will sag south throughout the early morning hours, but the
coverage does not look too great...at least not enough to warrant
more than a vicnity mention at this point. Winds could continue to
be gusty from time to time through the predawn hours but as the
front moves in...the winds should diminish. Cloud coverage should
also increase but remain VFR. As the front settles into and makes
passage across the area during the daylight hours today...we could
see some scattered convection...at least til the front makes
passage/clears the area by this evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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