Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 222100

National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Nwrly flow aloft will transition to quasi-zonal through the short
term period. A minor sfc trof is progged to glance off the nrn
half of the region...increasing the sfc pressure gradient a bit
Mon, allowing a modest pick-up of sfc winds out of the sw. The
pattern will go slack again Mon night under general high pressure
at the sfc.

By late Tue, on the backside of high pressure, the low level flow
will take on a srly component, with a rather dry fetch originating
from the Atlantic. Thus, mostly clear and rain free conditions
will prevail. Temperatures are expected to rebound to
approximately seasonable levels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

High confidence in the short term for dry forecast lowers
dramatically as we head into the holiday weekend.

An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest late
Monday is forecast to dig into the wrn Rockies by mid week. The low
will may slow to a crawl high pressure tries to hold on
over the sern U.S. The good news about this would be to delay the
onset of rain and keep most of the Thanksgiving holiday precip free
with max temps up near 60.

However...successive perturbations laden with Pacific moisture
ejecting northeast from the western low will combine with an
advancing cold front Thursday night and esp on Friday to bring
significant rains to the area. At this looks like
widespread areas could receive amounts in the 1 1/2 to 3 inch range.

Models then diverge in the Sat/Sun time frame and forecast
confidence decreases considerably. GFS run is much wetter now in
this time frame compared to yesterday. Even the 12Z ECMWF wants to
bring overrunning rains back in for the 2nd half of the weekend.
With it being about a week out still, really have no choice but to
use a model blend (Superblend) for rain chcs. What seems more sure
is that chilly Canadian air will be trying to ease into the
region. Could see nearly steady temps in the mid 30s to lower 40s
much of the weekend.


Issued at 122 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period, with very
dry air in place. As a ridge axis of high sfc pressure moves by
today, winds will be generally light and variable in the afternoon.
In the evening, winds are forecast to turn to the south but remain
light. After sunrise Mon, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit
in response to a sfc trof moving by to the north, veering the sfc
winds further to the sw. Sustained speeds by the end of the period
could be up to 12 kts at KEVV/KOWB.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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