Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290158
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
858 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A westward moving outflow boundary is touching off some scattered
showers and storms as it moves into our southwest Indiana and west
Kentucky counties. The airmass in our far eastern counties is
untouched from earlier outflows and will support a few strong
storms, as they move slowly west through the region. This
convective activity will likely not survive past the old Pennyrile
Parkway or to the Wabash River, as it will already have run out
of that previously untouched airmass. Brief gusty winds,
torrential rainfall and lightning will all be possible in the
meantime.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The short term will continue to be dominated by a strong high
pressure system which will be retrogressing slowly west from the
East Coast. Consequently, shower/thunderstorm chances will
continue to be low in any given spot and will continue to be
mainly diurnal in nature with exact placement mainly dependent on
the location of small scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as
low level outflow boundaries and differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period
with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s
and surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s. Many locations
will once again flirt with heat indices up around 100 degrees both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Models continue to show an upper level trof just northwest of the
PAH forecast area on Wednesday, being pushed off to our east by
Thursday as an upper level ridge builds across the Plains.  At the
surface, high pressure over central Canada on Wednesday will move
slowly southeast, with ECMWF and GFS centering the high over the
Great Lakes Region at 00z Saturday.  With warm moist air in place
across middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, the movement of
the upper trof will trigger showers and thunderstorms across our
region on Wednesday.  A few showers and storms will possibly linger
in northwest/west portions of our regions Wednesday evening, and in
our far west counties on Thursday.  The building upper level ridge
should give our entire area dry conditions by Thursday night.

It will remain warm and humid Wednesday.  As the surface high sinks
southeast, slightly cooler and drier air will begin filtering into
the area Thursday and continue into Friday.  Near seasonal
temperatures and dew points around 70 degrees on Wednesday will both
drop off a couple of degrees for Thursday, and a couple of more
degrees for Friday.  The surface high will move off to our east over
the weekend, and winds will slowly be turning back to the south.
This will result in gradually increasing temperatures and dew points
over the weekend.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Occasional LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may occur once again Monday morning
in the 08-13Z period due to possible redevelopment of fog/stratus.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Upper level
high pressure centered over the area should preclude most
convective development, but an isolated shower or storm may
randomly pop up in the heat of the day. However, not enough
coverage to warrant putting in TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Occasional LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may occur once again Monday morning
in the 08-13Z period due to possible redevelopment of fog/stratus.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Upper level
high pressure centered over the area should preclude most
convective development, but an isolated shower or storm may
randomly pop up in the heat of the day. However, not enough
coverage to warrant putting in TAFs.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith



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