000
FXUS63 KPAH 301829
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For this writing, VFR Cigs will prevail as model time/height
cross sections reveal a gradual lowering of peak RH in the
850-700mb layer. Some flirtation with MVFR decks should, however,
begin late in the planning period. Pops, for now, are low enough
to preclude mention at terminals, but that may need adjustment,
particularly for KCGI/KPAH, where the higher chances reside.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$