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FXUS63 KPAH 251717
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Used a HRRRTL, NAM, RAP approach to PoPs now, through today. It
places convection coincident with the H9 boundary and theta-e axis
across southern sections of the CWFA. The NAM has had a respectable
handle on what`s going on. Will hold a slight chance PoP in
tonight given the presence of the boundary and high theta-e air
persisting, in west KY. Will push that slight chance east on
Wednesday. Focus then turns to late Wednesday night through
Thursday night, as our flow turns NW, with a cold front moving
through the region. Will follow GFS consistent timing, moving the
front through Thursday evening, not as fast as the NAM. Good
chance PoPs for convection. Could be a few strong storms with
gusty winds, especially if enough instability develops. Best
chance PoPs will shift south late Thursday night.

Used a MOS, existing temperature forecast for temps. Will continue
the Special Weather Statement approach for just below advisory
heat index values the next two days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The long term period looks to be fairly quiet with not much going on
weather-wise in terms of precipitation. In addition, there will be a
welcome air mass change for the weekend.

All models indicate that a frontal boundary will be positioned just
to our south by 12Z Friday. Some lingering post frontal
precipitation is still possible mainly Friday morning across the far
southern areas. The trend has been drier and drier for Friday so
would not be surprised to see this rain chance dropped with
subsequent forecasts.

Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes region, will
push south during the day on Friday and into Friday night. This will
result in an airmass change for the better. Dew points will drop
back down into the 60s, even into the low 60s eventually.
Temperatures will also be lowered and highs will be in the lower to
mid 80s for the weekend.

These conditions will linger into Monday as well. The upper pattern
becomes a bit more unsettled toward the very end of the period but
we kept it dry through at least Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A weak frontal boundary extends from kmdh in southern IL southeast
to around khop in western KY. Isolated thunderstorms will continue
to develop along and south of this boundary this aftn. Thunder will
occur at or near kcgi and kpah this afternoon. The activity will
diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating.

Areas of fog will form late tonight and continue through the early
morning hours. Some of the fog will produce ifr conditions, mainly
at the fog-prone sites. The fog should be mostly in the moist air
south of the front, so fog was not mentioned in the kevv/kowb tafs.
The fog will burn off by mid-morning, followed by a few cumulus
clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MY