000
FXUS63 KPAH 070946
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
346 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Another H50 trof/short wave will swing east from the southwest
U.S. this weekend. This should spawn sfc low pressure system over
the western Gulf of Mexico by 12z Sunday with an inverted trof
extending ne up the spine of the Appalachian mts. Models still
indicate that the bulk of the moisture with this system will stay
just south/east of our forecast area. The highest chcs for light
precipitation look to be over the srn Pennyrile region of western
KY late Sat night into early Sunday. Though the precip should be
quite light, unfortunately sub freezing temps at the sfc will
combine with a warm layer aloft to produce light freezing rain or
sleet over wrn KY. Will hold off on any headlines/advisory for now
due model discrepancies on where measurable precip will indeed
form. Will cover the possibility of a light icing event in a
Special Weather Statement for now and let the day shift take one
more look. However, even light amounts of freezing precip could
cause travel issues late Sat night into Sunday morning.

After a lull in the precip Sunday afternoon, yet another wave of
light precip may skirt the Pennyrile region again Sunday evening.
However, by that time, those areas should be above the freezing
mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Will be issued shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Clearing line continues to sag southeast toward the area. Based
time of clearing at the terminals based on satellite trends.
Should be clear btwn 10Z-12Z. Winds should stay aob 10-12 kts out
of the north and winds should become more northeast with time
(Saturday night). Mid/high clouds will start invading the area
Saturday evening ahead of the next weather system.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...SMITH