Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 262348
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

H5 low spinning across the Upper Midwest, will gradually phase
with a low over TX and drift SE across the region through the
short term portion of the forecast. Moisture will be fairly
limited for the duration, with deeper moisture remaining to
our east and southeast. Cannot rule out small chances of
convection by Saturday evening toward KY/TN state line, with
chances lakes east Saturday night. Sunday through Sunday night
chances will only slightly increase across the SE 1/2 of the
area, given the glancing shot of slightly better moisture. Due to
the lower chances of rain, highs the past 2 forecast cycles have
been adjusted up slightly. Lows are close to a blend of MOS and
base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Models show high pressure building in for the early part of the
work week. On Thursday, GFS brings low pressure into the Great
Lakes region. This will drag a cold front across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, spreading rain across the PAH
fa. ECMWF is much slower with this feature and holds off any rain
until late Thursday night. Stuck with the quicker GFS and
continued with low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday. Above seasonal temperatures are expected
through Thursday, with a cool down to near seasonal temperatures
expected Friday if the timing of the cold front is close to
accurate.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Lots of cirrus will be streaming over the entire region throughout
this forecast period. Otherwise a light northeast wind tonight
will veer slightly Saturday.

Guidance indicates that winds are not likely to go completely
calm in most locations late tonight. Despite that, KCGI is still
likely to tank in FG late tonight. Given the better persistence it
had there this morning, and the presence of a VV decided to go with
VLIFR FG in a TEMPO group for tonight. The winds may have more
impact at KPAH, so just went with prevailing MVFR fog with no
mention of IFR or lower conditions. Elsewhere, no fog is expected
tonight.

Some of the latest guidance develops ceilings near 3kft for much
of Saturday at KOWB. This is in association with a weak surface
trough that is expected to move west into the area. Most guidance
has little or no cu, so will just mention a scattered layer at
KOWB through the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






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