000
FXUS63 KPAH 130252
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH RESPECT TO
THE FROST ADVISORY...WILL BE THE ANTECEDENT GROUND SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FROST DEPOSITION. THERE
STILL REMAINS QUITE A TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN PLACE
/5-6 DEGREES/ EVEN WITH CALM WINDS AND THE NOCTURNAL/SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS LIMIT IN MOISTURE MAY RETARD THE
DEGREE/EXTENT OF DEPOSITION LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO KEEP
CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN FORCE THROUGH EXPIRATION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT INTERESTING...AS ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES IS MAKING VARIANCES IN DEWPOINT VALUES A PROBLEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE 1 DAY REMOVED POST COLD FROPA AIRMASS.
WITH 12Z MODELS STILL CALLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
30S EAST OF THE SEMO OZARKS...WENT AHEAD AFT COLLAB WITH ALL ERN/SRN
OFFICES WANTING HEADLINES AND FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THEM.

BEYOND THAT...THE NEAR TERM WEATHER IS BENIGN/TRANQUIL. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND HEIGHTS BUILD WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY. SHOULD SEE ROBUST WARMUP TOWARD/THRU 70S MONDAY AND BACK
TO 80S BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY
WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR...BUT STILL EXHIBIT SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM TIMING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH...WHICH MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS.

EVEN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAK TROUGH BY FRIDAY...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN SUBMERSED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL
CAP...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TIMING OF
EACH PRECIPITATION EPISODE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WEAK
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AOB 5 KTS EARLY WILL GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AOB 10 KTS
AFT 14Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     110>112-114.

IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...JP