Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251140

540 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A weak surface high will keep our region dry and unseasonably
chilly into tonight, with quite a bit of sunshine expected today.
Models are in good agreement bringing a surface low into southern
Illinois by 00z Thursday. NAM, GFS and GEM all spread some precip
across the western half of the PAH forecast area by 18z Wednesday,
with ECMWF just a little bit slower. At the onset of any
precipitation, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in mainly
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois until temperatures climb
into the middle to upper 30s by mid morning. Light rain will spread
east through the day, tapering off from west to east late in the
day into the evening hours.

Models show the surface low over the east coast by 12z Thursday,
so Thanksgiving day into Thursday night we should see dry and
unseasonably cold conditions with decreasing clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

There is good agreement this morning between the 00Z operational
runs of the GFS, ECMWF and GEM.

Surface high pressure will be pushing east of the area early Friday,
allowing southerly winds to develop. The flow aloft will back to
nearly zonal Friday night, and strong south winds in the low-levels
will eventually result in a significant increase in low-level
moisture. Saturation from the surface through nearly 700mb will
result Saturday night, and showers, or at the very least some
drizzle and light rain, are a decent bet by 12Z Sunday.

An upper-level storm system will ride along the Canadian border and
into the Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night. This will push
a cold front through our region primarily Sunday night. The mainly
light precipitation looks like it will be ahead of and right along
the cold front. The ECMWF has more post-frontal precipitation
associated with a mid-level trough that it pushes through the region
early Monday. The GFS does not have as well pronounced a disturbance
at our latitude, and therefore does not have the post-frontal

Will generally have a 30-40% chance of showers from Saturday night
through Monday. Temperatures will be quite mild, but there is no
support for thunder. It will be too mild to consider wintry

After a coolish day Friday, high temperatures will warm to above
normal levels for Saturday through Monday. Much of the area could
see lower 60s Sunday. Lows will be mild, with the entire area
remaining above freezing through the period, even behind the front.


Issued at 540 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

KEVV/KOWB could see some low VFR clouds midday, otherwise clear
skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be from the
northwest at 5 to 10 kts today, becoming calm after 00z. No vsby
restrictions expected.




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