Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
THEN STALL IT OUT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
UPPER LOWS...BUT WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
EARLY THIS WEEK...FIGURE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE.

SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HOLDING ONTO POPS FARTHER WEST AND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. IF THERE IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WOULD STILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD
START TO DRY OUT...BUT WILL KEEP JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES AND
UP TOWARD THE KOWB AREA.

WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY...BUT AS WE TREND
TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE FELT IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM. MODELS
DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. HOW SOON THIS WOULD ARRIVE IN
OUR CWA IS ANYBODYS GUESS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH NO REAL TRIGGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA
BUT WEAKENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD BUT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP IT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BUMP UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR FRIDAY
WITH THAT RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TAF ISSUANCE. CURRENT CEILINGS ON
THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE STARTING TO MOVE
TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS...SO KEPT THE CURRENT TREND IN PLACE. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE TAF...AS PERSISTENT
TROUGH WILL BE REFORMING TO THE WEST OF THE WFO TAF SITES THROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...SMITH



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