Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 111740

1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

High pressure will move southeast of the area today with return
southerly flow resulting in warm temperatures today and Monday,
mild tonight (dry weather). Just some high clouds today per
latest Sat trends. Latest GFS/NAM output not generating any QPF
for our area Monday afternoon and evening. ECMWF in contrast
continues to do so. GFS exclusion seems to be based on faster
speed. NAM more so on peculiar looking NVA region beneath
vorticity generated by the approaching mid level wave, nothing
like the ECMWF. None of the models have substantial moisture. It`s
slow to develop. NAM does show a brief uptick in instability,
moisture across west KY before the front departs similar to the
ECMWF. Will maintain our slight chance of convection west KY late
afternoon and evening until the front clears the region. It is
entirely possible we may see no activity at all. If we do, the NAM
and ECMWF depict modest instability, even a tad more than what we
had with our last event. Day 2 SPC now includes TSRA west KY.
That, and coord with surrounding offices leads us to add the
mention. Dry the rest of Monday night on through Tuesday night.
Temps will be weighted more toward latest MOS with some weight
still given to previous numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

More of the same dry weather is expected through the long term. A
strong northwesterly mid-level jet will remain quasi-stationary
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures remain a challenge due to the
proximity of the strong jet axis/baroclinic zone. Even small model
differences in the location of the baroclinic zone are resulting in
significant temp differences.

As far as the daily details, the models are in reasonable agreement
Wednesday into Thursday. A weak high pressure system will move east
across our region during this time frame. Clear skies, very dry air,
and light winds are expected. Highs will be generally in the lower
to mid 70s with lows in the 45 to 50 degree range.

The deterministic models become divergent Friday through Saturday,
especially regarding the movement of the low level thermal gradient.
However, the 00z GFS ensemble mean and 12z Sat ECMWF ensemble mean
are in rather good agreement. Based on these ensemble means, it
appears a cold front will move south across the Lower Ohio Valley on
Friday. Highs Fri and Sat should cool into the mid and upper 60s,
with lows in the lower and mid 40s. Once again, it appears this will
be a moisture-starved front. Rainfall since Sep 1 at PAH has been
exactly 1 inch. This would be the second driest Sep 1 to Oct 15
period on record at PAH barring measurable rain now through Oct


Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

As high pressure shifts east of the area, southerly winds AOB 10
knots will prevail this afternoon amidst VFR conditions. Winds are
forecast to remain around 5 knots tonight, which should preclude any
fog development in most locations. An increase in scattered VFR mid
level clouds is expected overnight and early Monday morning ahead of
an approaching cold front. Southwest winds around 10 knots will gust
to 15 to 20 knots at times on Monday.



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