Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

504
FXUS63 KPAH 302004
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
304 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A boundary in the vicinity combined with subtle support aloft will
continue our chance of convection in the short term. May see an
uptick in chances Sunday night into Monday as the front starts to
lift back north, in response to rising heights. Locally heavy rain
is possible with any deep convection. Used an even model blend and
persistence for the forecast, and a MOS blend for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The extended part of the forecast will start out with an expansive
mid level ridge across the southern CONUS, with the PAH forecast
area near its periphery. The medium range models were in reasonable
agreement regarding the overall flow pattern through the extended
forecast, with finer details somewhat less certain.

The strength of the aforementioned ridge will be challenged by
periodic northern stream mid level shortwaves, at least around the
northern edge. The best pcpn signals at this time for the PAH
forecast area appear to be Tuesday (Day 4) and Saturday (Day 7).

Showers and tstms should be most common east of the MS River Tuesday
afternoon and evening due to the extra focus provided by a slow-
moving surface warm front in the area. The front should be northeast
of our region by Wednesday, leaving a moist and unstable (mainly in
the low levels) air mass in place. This should be conducive to
scattered shower and tstm development, mainly diurnal, through
Friday, under weak mid/upper flow. The 12Z ECMWF model showed
additional weakening of the ridge Thursday, with perhaps more
shortwave energy available for better development of deep moist
convection. We will have to see if that holds. By Saturday, moisture
convergence associated with an approaching surface cold front,
driven by significant mid level shortwave energy over the
northeastern CONUS, may result in somewhat increased coverage of
showers and tstms across the PAH forecast area. Indications are
that, whenever the front actually arrives, it will be rather slow-
moving.

Under the influence of the mid level ridge, if the temp/dewpoint
forecast holds, we may see the issuance of another Heat Advisory
Tuesday through Friday (sustained heat indices 100-105). Increased
clouds and pcpn, or even a wind shift, will probably limit peak
temps Saturday afternoon mostly to the upper 80s, unless something
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Will use a persistence forecast. Monitor and include convection
when appropriate, as confidence too low right now to pin point.
Light winds overall. Fog potential again later tonight. Variable
clouds, mainly VFR, possibly MVFR bases at times. Low confidence
for low cigs late tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.