Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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110
FXUS63 KPAH 280513
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1213 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A weak frontal boundary, combined with abundant moisture and upper
level disturbances progressing through the region will result in
precipitation chances every period through the short term.

There are periods that appear to be wetter than others. One of these
occurs tonight into the morning hours tomorrow when an upper
disturbance moves in from the south with the best coverage
expected to be over western Kentucky. Precipitable water values
are forecast to be in the 99th percentile for July, possibly
exceeding 2.3 inches. Therefore, heavy rainfall will be the main
threat with some flooding possible overnight into tomorrow
morning. Some potential of localized flooding developing,
especially over the southern Pennyrile region of western KY
(localized amounts over 2 inches). Went ahead and issued a Flash
Flood watch for tonight for our far southeast counties to match up
with neighboring offices. Overall amounts will taper off to the
north and west of there.

With the amount of instability and moisture present there will
likely be convective development during the afternoon and possibly
lasting into the evening hours on Thursday as an upper level
trough makes passage. There looks to be relative lull in
precipitation coverage overnight Thursday into much of the day on
Friday in the wake of the trough passage. Some guidance depicts
another disturbance impacting the area late in the day Friday into
Friday night with increasing precipitation chances, especially
over the southwest/south sections of the area.

As far as temperatures are concerned, highs will generally average a
bit below normal while lows average above normal. This is due to
clouds and periods of showers and storms helping to lower daytime
temps and keep them elevated at night. Humidity levels will remain
high with dewpoints staying above 70 through the period. Luckily
heat index values should stay below 100 finally on Thursday and
Friday due to lower temperatures. This would be the first time
since July 16th in Paducah.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper level trof will remain over our region through the weekend
with a surface front bisecting the PAH forecast area from north to
south. This will keep our region unstable, with good chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the entire area Saturday into
Sunday. Models indicate that the upper trof will gradually move off
to our east, and the surface front will lift north and continue to
meander just to our north, or even dip down into our northern
counties at times, into at least Tuesday.  Good chances of showers
and storms will persist into Monday, with gradually decreasing
chances from west to east Tuesday as the front finally lifts and
moves off to our east. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, small
chances will be confined to the eastern half of our area.

With a bit more westerly flow at the surface, temperatures will be a
little below seasonal normals Saturday and Sunday, with dew points
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  With the front lifting north, winds
will become southerly Sunday into Monday.  This will result in
increasing temperatures and dew points for the first half of the
work week.  Heat indices will creep back up to around 100 degrees
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Another round of showers and possibly some tstms appears to be
likely for the TAF sites late in the night as mid level shrtwave
energy moves through. MVFR cigs are probable with pcpn that occurs
with the wave. IFR vsbys are possible in fog also late in the
night, with all the moisture around. By mid morning Thu,
conditions should begin to rapidly improve to VFR, though cigs may
stick around into the afternoon. Light winds will be variable in
direction until perhaps mid morning, when they should take on more
of a westerly component.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ089>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ108>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DB



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