Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242338
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High pressure will continue to extend across the area tonight
through Sunday, resulting in dry weather with temperatures and
humidity levels lower than normal. Some of the model guidance
moves some weak convective activity toward SEMO on Monday. But
they also dry this activity up with high pressure still in
control. Will bring in a low chance for late Monday afternoon.
We raised PoPs a bit to mid chance category for Monday night, as
the NAM and EC are more robust with elevated convection, as a mid
level wave moves from NW to SE across the area. Used a GFS/NAM MOS
blend for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast is higher than
average through about Thursday. Confidence reduces somewhat by late
week with more variability in model solutions with respect to our
next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The forecast will start off dry with high pressure centered over the
Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys Tuesday morning. In the
upper levels, a trough will be positioned over the Ohio valley from
an upper low over eastern Canada, while a ridge extends along the
range of the Rocky Mountains.

The overall flow pattern is forecast to flatten and become more
zonal through mid week while the surface high pushes east off the
Atlantic Coast. As this occurs, the resultant pick up in southerly
flow will result in a marked increase in humidity--particularly by
Thursday as dew points creep towards the 70 degree mark. However,
dry weather should largely persist into Thursday across much of the
area as the main storm track remains north of the region. The
current model blend forecast keeps most of the area dry through
Thursday, but brings a slight chance of showers/storms into northern
portions of the area to account for the slightly more aggressive
Canadian model solution.

Models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are in decent agreement that a
better chance for showers/storms should arrive by Friday into
Saturday as a weak cold front slips south into the area. Given the
time of year and uncertainty this far out, will limit rain chances
to about 50 percent during any one period.

Temperatures will start off unseasonably mild with highs on Tuesday
only in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Wednesday through Saturday
should average in the upper 80s, though a few 90 degree readings are
possible on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions expected for the 00Z TAF period. Primary concern
will be northwest winds gusting into the teens Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RJP
AVIATION...DRS



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