Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 021620

1120 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Issued at 1120 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The upper low over the Tn valley will continue its dive southward
with Joaquin advances toward the East Coast. The surface
gradient will respond by tightening between high pressure over
Eastern Canada and low pressure over the southeast U.S. This will
keep a fetch of nice cool n-nelys across the lower Ohio river
valley. Winds may be gusty at times during the pm hours, when the
PGF is maxed.

Radar mosaic shows Pops close by, just to the southeast of the
FA. Until the Tn Valley Low gets sufficiently far enough
south/east, the bulk columnar moisture over the Eastern Seaboard
states will continue to be pulled back westward, and into the
Commonwealth. This will result in a continuation of Pops for us.
Mid to High chance cat pops for our eastern counties will taper to
slgts and less as you go westward thru our CWA. This will include
into at least the first half of the weekend (Saturday). It still
looks like drier air will work into the region Sunday, as high
pressure aloft ridges in from the west, and Joaquin appears to
make a more northward/eastward track each successive run. We`ll
have to watch that closely for any weekend changes should it move
further westward.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Taking a long look at the hemispheric range guidance suggests that
the GEM (Canadian) guidance appears to be a good compromise between
the more progressive GFS and slower ECMWF. Although the ECMWF and
GFS swap places in the spatial location and intensity of upper lows
and ridge, the main theme suggests that a slower progression of
systems will likely occur on this level.  The initialized blended
guidance is biased toward the more progressive GFS, placing
precipitation more often in the Day 7/Day 8 time frame.

Although the GFS does well in some respects, plan to lean toward a
slightly slower evolution and translation of the middle level closed
low (currently off the northern California coast) into the central
U.S. by next Wednesday, somewhere between the slower ECMWF and the
faster GFS guidance.

With all this in mind, drastically pulled back on PoPs/Weather
next Thursday and Thursday night. Would have considered pulling
them altogether, but had to keep some boundary consistency for
collaboration purposes with neighbors to the north and west.

The GFS does well, such as with the evolution of the closed low
currently to our southeast, but it is usually too fast with the
development of these systems with time.

Given the slower evolution of the low ejecting out of California
next week with the ECMWF and Canadian model, adjusted temperatures
slightly upward during the latter half of the week, within
collaboration guidelines. May still be 1-2 degrees too cool on
daytime highs, but should be within tolerance on nighttime lows.


Issued at 1120 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Cigs will lower next 24 hours. Predominant MVFR bases with time
especially east of the Mississippi River. Chance of light showers
will increase from the east by this evening and continue overnight
with best chances east of a KFWC-KCEY line. NNE winds with gusts
around 20 kts will continue this afternoon...leveling off tonight
to around 10 kts.



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