Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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245
FXUS63 KPAH 040805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Upper trof axis will move across the area today, with surface high
pressure ridge moving across the region. Mainly looking at high
pressure for the duration. Another mid level trof axis will move
across the area Saturday. Expect an increase in clouds. NAM tries
to bring light precip into west sections of the area. The other
models do not. Will keep it dry for now. Temps will be a blend of
MOS and existing numbers. Moderating temperatures after a chilly
day today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Good synoptic agreement among forecast models and their ensembles
results in higher than average confidence in the long term, though
the specifics are somewhat less certain early next week.

The long term begins with a weak upper level ridge centered over the
forecast area on Sunday. Upper level energy forecast to come onshore
in British Columbia Friday night is forecast to move across southern
Canada before taking a southeast dive into the Upper Midwest by late
Sunday. This will sharply amplify the upper level pattern across the
lower 48 and result in the development of a deep low pressure system
over the Great Lakes region early in the new week.

For the Quad State Region, the first impact from this system will be
an increase in sky cover on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The initial cold front is forecast to pass through the region
Sunday night, which will result in a chance of rain. As colder air
wraps in behind the front and another frontal passage follows on
Monday, precipitation is forecast to mix with snow late Sunday night
and Monday before changing to all snow by Monday night and Tuesday.
The GFS and Canadian are faster than the ECMWF with the post-frontal
cold advection. So while the current forecast is more of a consensus
blend, it would not be surprising to see forecast temperatures drop
by a few degrees during the transition period. This would primarily
impact the Monday forecast.

At this time, the main impact from this system appears to be across
southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. While
precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor snow
accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out during this time, though
it is currently too early to speculate on impacts.

The upper low should be departing the region by Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but continued cold northwest flow will likely stick
around through the end of the extended forecast period. In fact,
after highs in the lower to mid 50s on Sunday and perhaps as warm as
the upper 30s to lower on Monday, highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
only forecast to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Nighttime lows in
the lower to mid 30s Sunday night should eventually bottom out in
the teens by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Clouds 3-4k/ft along and north of the Ohio River and back up
across the KSTL area will continue to move ESE through the early
morning. Will have gradual decreasing clouds in the TAFs. NW winds
up to 10 kts through the day will become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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