Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 060500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas
this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific
and another over the eastern U.S.. Surface high extended from Iowa
across eastern Kansas and into north Texas. The surface high will
move off slowly to the east through tonight with southerly return
flow developing from west to east after midnight. Another night of
clear skies are expected tonight with lows dropping down into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Heights rise on Friday along with increasing
warm advection and we should mix up to 850 mb or so across the area.
Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid
80s in central Kansas. Winds increase through the day with
increasing pressure gradient. Should also mix down stronger winds
aloft which will yield wind gusts around 27 mph in north central
Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Warm air advection pattern still ramps up Friday night but limited
moisture and instability aloft and dry layers below should keep any
precip limited to sprinkles at most. Frontal boundary still appears
to sink into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture values still
recovering and warm air aloft should make local thunderstorm
development difficult but small chances still justified in northern
areas in the afternoon. Have inched up high temps for central and
southern areas Saturday given the overnight WAA but with some high
cloud and uncertainty on boundary location confidence is not high on
specifics. More organized thunderstorm development is expected to
occur in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon
which could translate east over ridge and along the elevated front
make its way into the area per Corfidi vectors. Could see MCS type
precip linger into Sunday morning but area could easily be in
moderately unstable airmass in the afternoon still well downstream
of the upper low. If the old front or an outflow remains in the area
there will be some chance for thunderstorms in peak heating. Winds
aloft should be increasing somewhat but there will be some potential
for severe weather.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

Uncertainty remains high for evolution of thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Model to model consistency remains low with the
placement of the warm front. Current 12Z guidance would suggest the
warm front would position along the KS/NE border. The next question
is will surface-base convection occur along the warm front. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS forecast soundings along the KS/NE border valid at 00Z
Monday suggest very weak to perhaps a completely eroded EML. If this
solution were to come to fruition, all modes of severe weather would
become possible as moderate instability and sufficient low-
level/deep-layer shear will be in place. Good agreement amongst the
ECMWF and GFS with passage of an upper level shortwave trough Sunday
night into Monday morning. This solution suggests convection along
the dryline in central/southern KS should congeal into line of
elevated convection late Sunday evening and progress eastward across
the area. Severe weather would be possible across the area as MUCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/KG and deep-layer shear near 40-50 knots would
support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Zonal to perhaps
northwest flow returns for the middle of week. Precipitation chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as an embedded trough
within the northern stream sweeps across the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF with light winds tonight,
occasional gusts up to 20 kts Friday afternoon, and then decreased
gusts after sunset.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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