Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 230439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters






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