Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 111810
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1210 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LL FGEN RESPONSE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PER THE COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERING INTO EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO GRASSY
AREAS/TREES WITH MOST ROADS REMAINING IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE DROPPED
WINTER HEADLINES. DID ISSUE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES GIVEN FORECAST
LOWS TONIGHT. ALL ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH MT...WITH
POWERFUL JET STREAK EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NRN WY INTO WRN SD.
WDSPRD RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL FROM NERN WY THROUGH MOST OF
WRN/CNTRL SD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR NWRN SD WHERE LITTLE
PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. AS OF 3 AM...BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN IS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLKHLS.

FOR TODAY...WDSPRD RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED THIS MRNG ACRS ALL BUT FAR
NWRN SD. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE HEAVY BAND OF PCPN THAT IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLKHLS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS MRNG AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 500-700MB WEAKENS. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
BLKHLS...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN WY INTO FAR WRN SD
ONLY SEEING AN INCH OR SO. PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN THE AFTN...THEN END COMPLETELY BY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL
BUT OUR FAR SRN ZONES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY
GIVEN THE PCPN AND LOW STRATUS.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT SCNTRL SD. LOWS IN THE 20 EXPECTED
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH TEENS IN THE BLKHLS.

FRIDAY...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SLOW
WARM UP TO BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER MOSTLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH RA/SN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN EARLY EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW SD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     SDZ014-032-043-044.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025>027-030-031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     WYZ054>056-058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13





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