


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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363 FXUS63 KUNR 061751 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1151 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, mainly across portions of northeastern WY into southwestern and south central SD. - Additional strong to severe storms may occur Monday. - Hotter temperatures and drier weather by Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Current radar imagery shows widespread convection is ongoing over the CWA. Though the severe threat has greatly diminished, some of the stronger updrafts have been capable of gusty winds and sub- severe hail. Showers and storms will continue across western SD through the morning hours before moving out from west to east early this afternoon. Right now, it`s looking like the outflow from this morning`s storms will push the more buoyant airmass to the south. NAM and HRRR solutions do show some recovery in southwestern SD, the Black Hills, and portions of northeastern WY with SB CAPE climbing to above 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. This could point at some severe potential in those areas later this afternoon. However, confidence in this forecast remains low as it`s still unclear how the storms this morning will impact the environment later this afternoon. Turning our attention to Monday, another shortwave will cross the region with low level southerly flow ahead of a sfc trof advecting moist air into the region. MLCAPE values could potentially climb above 2000 J/kg through Monday afternoon, especially across south central SD. Increasing deep layer shear through the afternoon and evening hours will support organized convection and supercellular structures. Main concerns with these storms will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, there is also a low tornado risk. The major forecast challenge is the timing and location of the sfc trof and thus the timing and location of the storms. Upper ridge builds into the western US by Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing hotter temperatures and lower chances for precipitation, though an isolated storm or two can`t be ruled out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1150 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 TSRA will redevelop this afternoon, but will be more limited in coverage. Gusty, erratic winds will still be possible near any storms. Precip maybe linger tonight, especially around the Black Hills. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...13