Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251949
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
149 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Water vapor shows upper trof beginning to move into the Rockies,
with an upper low at that base of the trof nearing the Four
Corners. Radar returns associated with nrn stream jet streak
extend from cntrl WY through ern MT, but not a lot of evidence
this pcpn is reaching the surface at least at lower elevations.
Surface analysis shows broad deepening low pressure along the east
slopes of the cntrl Rockies. Mild day across the cwfa with temps
in the 50s and 60s.

Upper trof will begin working into the Nrn Plains tonight. Upper
forcing associated with right rear quad of jet streak and lower
level frontogenesis will result in a band of pcpn working through
our wrn half of zones tonight, although it may take some tonight
before pcpn saturates the dry low levels. The band of pcpn will
then continue spreading ewd through the wrn SD plains during the
morning Sunday before dissipating Sunday afternoon. Thermal
profiles suggest some rain mixing with or changing to snow in
parts of nern WY into the Blkhls, with a couple inches possible at
higher elevations of the Blkhls. Dry conditions expected Sunday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Unsettled progressive flow is expected next week with a series of
upper troughs moving through the CWA. First system moves through
Monday night and Tuesday with mainly rain, but some snow possible
over the higher elevations. Next main system moves in next Friday.
Temps through the period will mainly be above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 122 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. Gusty southerly
winds expected on the SD plains through the afternoon. A cold
front will bring deteriorating conditions tonight with areas of
MVFR conditions in rain developing this evening over nern WY into
the Blkhls, then spreading ewd onto the SD plains late tonight and
early Sunday. Local IFR conditions possible later tonight across
parts of nern WY into the Blkhls as rain mixes with or changes to
snow.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson



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