312
FXUS65 KFGZ 200505
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 PM MST Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds are expected Monday along with slightly
cooler temperatures. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or
light showers Monday afternoon and evening in eastern Arizona. Dry,
mild, and breezy weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...Hi-res guidance continues to favor isolated showers for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Best chances look to be mostly along
and south of a Flagstaff - Window Rock line, especially near
Payson, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes and Young. The low pressure
system bringing this chance of precipitation should move through
the area quickly, minimizing chances for wetting rains. The rest
of the week will remain cool, breezy, and mostly dry.

The Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning remain valid for tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

Only minor updates were made to the precipitation chances for
tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /437 PM MST/...Sunny and warm conditions prevail across northern
Arizona this afternoon. Tightening gradients in advance of a
trough approaching the west coast are producing increased
southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph. These winds will decrease
after sunset. Monday - the trough will move eastward across the
region through the day. Winds will increase further, with gusts
40-55 mph forecast for much of the region, and a Wind Advisory has
been issued from mid morning through early evening for all areas
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns, as well as the
Yavapai County mountains/Prescott area. The Fire Weather Watch for
Monday was also upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, with Oak Creek
Canyon/Sedona added to the warning. Another interesting feature in
Monday`s weather pattern, is the model trends toward a slug of
mostly mid level moisture being pulled northeastward into the
state by afternoon/evening. We have increased PoPs from Payson to
the White Mtns, toward Window Rock into the 10-20% range. Though
this mostly looks like virga and sprinkles, some areas could
actually get a couple hundredths of rain. This should occur after
the critical fire weather in northeast Arizona, so the Red Flag
Warning looks good even with the slight rain chances.

Tuesday - the low moves east of the state Tuesday, resulting in
lighter winds. Gusts to around 30-35 mph are still possible in
east central Arizona around St Johns, but other areas will be
closer to 20-25 mph. Morning lows will be a bit below normal with
the decreasing wind and dry air mass, near to a bit below freezing
for the usual high country cold spots. Wednesday through
Saturday - pretty typical May weather pattern expected, with dry
and breezy conditions each day. Morning lows Wednesday and
Thursday mornings will be chilly again in the high country with
more near to slightly below freezing values in the cold spots.
Daytime highs also slightly below normal. Low pressure passing
north of the state Thursday/Friday could cause winds to pick up
again, with 30-35 mph gusts currently forecast. Yet another trough
off the Pacific is showing up in much of the guidance for
Saturday, favoring a continued breezy and cooler than normal
forecast but little chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 20/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...Light winds
5-15 kts overnight. SW winds increase after 15Z Monday becoming
20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts. The strongest winds will be north of
a KFLG - KSOW line. Local visibility reductions possible from
wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust on Monday, with otherwise
VFR. A low chance (15-20%) exists for showers east of a KFLG -
KRQE line Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...Strong SW winds
gusting up to 45 kts continue through 02Z Tuesday before
decreasing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. W to SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the
afternoons.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions for
Monday with critical fire weather conditions expected. A Red Flag
Warning is in place for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Less windy
on Tuesday with west winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each
afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal
temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to
15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff