Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 151744
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1144 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.AVIATION...
High clouds are streaming across the region with VFR ceilings at all
area airports. Some middle clouds will mix in this afternoon, but
ceilings will remain VFR. In Austin and San Antonio will have
southwesterly winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this
afternoon. The gusts should drop off around sunset. Winds at DRT will
be from the west-northwest this afternoon. All airports will have a
wind shift to the north or northwest late this evening with a cold
front moving through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

UPDATE...
Dense fog has approached the I-35 corridor and have expanded the
Dense Fog Advisory to include Guadalupe to Lee counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Winds are light and variable across the area tonight with
temperatures ranging from the middle 40s in the Hill Country to near
60 degrees in the eastern CWA. Some passing high clouds continue to
stream from NW to SE across the area. These high clouds are currently
helping limit the fog development. However, dewpoint depressions are
near zero east of the I35 corridor and we are starting to see some
patchy fog develop. Will continue to monitor trends for the remainder
of the night for any possible need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

Synoptically, zonal flow continues to persist across the southern
CONUS with a weak trough axis beginning to move into the Central
Plains. A cold front is located just south of the Red River and this
front will only slowly move south today without appreciable mid-
level forcing. To the south of the boundary, west winds will move
into the area as a surface low develops near Abilene. West winds
usually lead to abnormally warm temperatures and this is expected
today. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the
area. These values will be near or above record values for today.
For more information see the chart in the climate section below.

The front should slowly move into the area tonight, and lows will
range from the middle 40s in the northern counties to the lower 60s
in the southwest. The frontal boundary should lift north as a warm
front Saturday afternoon across the western CWA, but the main
question remains how far the front lifts across the eastern CWA as
this will have a large effect on temperatures depending on where the
boundary ends up. Will forecast upper 60s for highs in the eastern
CWA and middle 80s for the western areas. Temperatures in the east
could end up cooler if the front hangs up a bit longer than
anticipated.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Another trough axis will pass through the plains by Sunday sending
the frontal boundary back south into the area. This trough is
expected to be stronger which will send the front through the CWA.
Highs Sunday will only cool slightly and will be in the middle 60s to
upper 70s. Another frontal surge with colder air arrives Monday and
at the same time a strong trough moves into the desert SW. This will
set up overrunning conditions behind the front and expect a decent
coverage of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperatures in
the time frame will be cold with small diurnal ranges. Lows will be
in the 30s and 40s with highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s. Lower rain
chances will remain in the forecast for the eastern counties
Wednesday and Thursday as another weak disturbance moves into the
area. Temperatures are expected to moderate back into the 60s to near
70 on Thursday.

CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible at the South Central Texas
climate sites today. A listing of these records are provided below
along with today`s forecasted temperatures.

FEBRUARY 15
LOCATION             RECORD HIGH    YEAR      TODAY`S FORECAST
Austin Bergstrom     83             1980      86
Austin Camp Mabry    85             1980      86
San Antonio          85             1990      87
Del Rio              87             1990      90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  50  71  54  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  49  71  55  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  52  75  55  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            86  47  74  49  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  57  86  55  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  46  70  51  66 /   0   0   0  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             88  56  84  57  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  51  71  54  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  52  70  57  70 /   0  -   -   20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  55  80  58  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           87  57  80  58  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...04


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