Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 182002
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Afternoon radar imagery does show some weak showers trying to develop
east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Given these trends, we have
added a low chance for an isolated shower this afternoon along
Highway 77. Otherwise, gusty winds will continue through this
afternoon, then decrease significantly an hour or two after sunset as
boundary layer mixing ceases. With clearing skies, look for overnight
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Surface high pressure along with
stable northwest flow aloft will result in dry weather and high
temperatures a degree or two below normal on Friday. Overnight lows
should remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal for Friday night given
clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
On Saturday, surface high pressure will begin to loose its influence
across the region. Meanwhile, westerly flow aloft returns to the
Rockies and plains states allowing a surface low and lee-side trough
to develop over southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This will
bring gusty south winds back to south central Texas beginning mid-
morning along the Rio Grande, with gusty conditions spreading east
throughout the day. The flow aloft begins to trend a little more
active as we head through Easter Sunday and early next week. The
medium range models show some weak upper disturbances moving in as
early as Sunday afternoon. For now, we will keep the forecast dry on
Sunday and will monitor carefully. Rain chances will return to the
forecast on Monday as the upper trough deepens and mid-level
shortwave activity continues to move in from the west. This trough
axis will be slow to approach and will likely linger just west of the
region through at least Wednesday night and possibly longer according
to the latest operational run of the ECMWF. This will lead to
increasing rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Again,
there is some disagreement on how quickly the upper trough moves
east of the region, with the GFS trending faster and the ECMWF now
showing a cut-off low lingering through at least Thursday. As can be
expected, the operational ECMWF is much higher with forecast
precipitation amounts. There is some support from the GEFS ensemble
data, but the placement is not in agreement with the ECMWF. For now,
we will keep rain chances in the forecast through Thursday as a slow
moving cold front may help initiate additional showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  74  51  81  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  74  49  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     54  76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            53  71  49  80  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  84  55  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  72  49  80  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             52  81  50  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  75  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  74  48  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  77  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           55  78  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams



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