Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 220526 AAC
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
S/SE flow will continue overnight with low clouds developing and
MVFR/IFR ceilings around 07Z-08Z at the I-35 sites and around 10Z at
KDRT. Cigs will mix out and become VFR at KDRT around 14Z-16Z then
15Z-17Z across the east. Winds will be light S/SE at 3-6 knots
overnight then increase to 7-10 knots after 15z. Afternoon and early
evening could see gust to near 20 knots. KDRT will see east winds
8-10 knots overnight and SE winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
after 15z. Convection will be isolated at best and will not mention
in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

UPDATE...
A warm and humid night time period is in store as dewpoints are
expected to stay in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s. The Coastal
Plains area could see patchy fog by daybreak as suggested by GFS LAMP
guidance and area forecast soundings. Kept the shower and
thunderstorm activity along the Rio Grande Plains intact from
previous forecast package as there is a slight chance for these
storms to push along the Rio Grande late tonight. However, confidence
is low on this as new models coming in are showing less activity
than earlier advertised.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
A return to ifr and low mvfr cigs near or below 1500 ft should return
late tonight with light southeast winds and high levels of soil
moisture. Low cigs should last through around 17Z or 18Z along the
I-35 while DRT could see a slightly earlier mix out time. Afternoon
convection is considered too isolated for consideration in TAFS for
late Tuesday. However, there could be a dry sea breeze wind shift
that could alter directions and add some late afternoon gusts to 20
knots along I-35 close to 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Early afternoon surface observations show a remnant cold front was
located roughly along a GTU-SAT-DRT line. Elsewhere, some developing
convection is noted across the coastal plains into the Highway 77
corridor. The remnant boundary along with an axis of increased
moisture and daytime heating is aiding in the development of this
convection.

The above mentioned boundary will weaken and become ill-defined
through the evening hours as we expect a return of south to
southeasterly winds across all areas. The hi-res models generally
favor the coastal plains for convection this evening and we have gone
with the higher rain chances across this region. Most activity across
the coastal plains is expected to decrease by late evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Farther west along the Rio Grande, we will
hold on to a low chance for showers and storms through tonight to
account for any activity that develops over the higher terrain of
Mexico, then moves eastward toward the Rio Grande plains. No
significant change in the large scale pattern is expected on Tuesday
and we will mention low chances for rainfall along the Rio Grande and
coastal plains. Temperatures should manage to warm slightly on
Tuesday, with most areas in the 90s, except mid to upper 80s in the
Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The forecast for the remainder of the forecast period will largely
be dominated by a strengthening subtropical ridge axis to our west.
We will certainly keep an eye on what develops in the Gulf of Mexico,
but for now any activity is currently not anticipated to have an
impact on our forecast. Most areas are expected to remain warm and
dry as the ridge strengthens. The exception could be over the coastal
plains, where slightly higher moisture levels will be found. Also,
we can`t completely rule out an isolated storm or two across western
Val Verde county. For either of the above locations, rain chances
will remain very low. Above normal temperatures are expected into
early next week, with widespread highs in the 90s and lows in the
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  92  70  94  72 /  10  -   -   10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  91  67  93  68 /  -   -   -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  91  68  92  68 /  -   10  -   10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  89  68  92  69 /  -   -   -   10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  93  72  95  72 /  10  -   -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  91  69  92  69 /  -   -   -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  68  94  67 /  -   -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  91  68  93  69 /  -   10  -   10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  91  70  92  71 /  -   20  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  91  71  93  71 /  -   10  -   10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           71  92  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...04


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