Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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998
FXUS64 KEWX 221126 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
MVFR cigs developed at the I-35 sites earlier this morning. Currently
only KSSF/KSAT are reporting MVFR conditions. KAUS has gone back to
VFR. Could see a brief period of additional MVFR cigs at KAUS through
14Z, but most likely at KSAT/KSSF. Light southerly winds this
morning will increase to 9-13 knots after 16z. Winds after 20Z- 22Z
will become southeast and continue into the evening. Overnight
looking for light S/SE winds again and MVFR cigs developing along the
I-35 corridor between 08Z-10Z. KAUS once again may not see more than
a few hours of MVFR conditions and have elected to keep them VFR at
this time. Most convection should remain east of I-35 today, but
there is a chance a few isolated storms could get close late this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weak shear axis lingers over Texas within a much weaker Subtropical
Ridge over the southern tier of states while a weak mid level impulse
drifts north over the western Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the seabreeze mainly near the Coastal
Plains during the afternoon hours today and Friday. Mid level impulse
will remain east of our area, though may enhance the seabreeze across
the far eastern areas on Friday. There is a slight potential that one
or two showers make to I-35 before they dissipate by sunset. Slightly
above normal temperatures and elevated heat index values continue.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
In the wake of the passage of an upper level trough across the
Central Plains on Saturday, the Subtropical Ridge is now shown to
rebuild over the Southwestern States into Texas by Sunday through
Monday. This is faster than previous runs and keeps the previously
mentioned inverted trough south of our area with little or no impact.
As a result, have cut back on POPs to mainly the seabreeze near the
Coastal Plains each day for Saturday through Monday and for the tail
end of the upper level trough across our Central Texas counties for
Saturday into Sunday. The GFS, CMC, and lesser extent the NAM still
want to generate areas of deeper convection, however, this looks
less likely with stronger subsidence under the Ridge and only a
seasonably moist airmass. Temperatures will warm again with highs at
or above 100 again for most of the area Sunday and Monday. ECMWF
guidances show even hotter temperatures. The Ridge retreats to the
west a little Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing a weak surface boundary
to drift into our area. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across
much of our area, however enough Ridge influence will keep them
isolated in coverage. Due to the increased clouds and rain, near
normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77 100  77  99 /  10  -   -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  75  99  76  99 /  10  -   10  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  99  75  98 /  10  -   10  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            97  74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  -   20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  77 100  78 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  76  98  76  98 /  -    0  -   -   20
Hondo Muni Airport            100  75 100  75  99 /   0   0  -   10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  75  99  75  98 /  10  -   10  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  76  97  76  97 /  10   0  30  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77  98  77  98 /  10  -   10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport          100  76 100  77  99 /  10  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...10
Short-Term/Long-Term...04



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