Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221749
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
Isolated TSRA has been observed on radar west of the I-35 corridor at
TAF issuance and expect development to continue through the afternoon
hours. Similar to yesterday, the question will be if this activity
can migrate far enough west to impact the I-35 terminals. Storm
motion is currently north-northwest so best opportunity will be at
KAUS unless more development occurs south of San Antonio. Thus,
included VCTS at KAUS but left out mention at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT.
Amendments may be needed at KAUS if confidence in impacts increases.

After 00Z, this activity should decrease, and another round of
overnight MVFR/IFR CIGs is expected to develop persisting through the
mid morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs across the region this morning. The east
is seeing the LIFR/IFR and the western areas MVFR. The low clouds and
cigs will continue through 15Z-17Z then should become VFR all area.
Will see repeat tonight with the I-35 locations falling to MVFR/IFR
06Z-09Z and then MVFR developing around 11Z for KDRT. Winds 4-7
knots this morning will become SE 7-10 knots after 15Z. SE winds will
increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after 16Z at KDRT.
Isolated convection is possible west of I-35 and isolated to
scattered east of I-35 today. Low confidence at this time so have not
included in the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Showers and thunderstorms along the Texas/New Mexico border extending
south to the Big Bend and into Mexico are moving east. This activity
is being fed by a moist southeasterly lower level flow. Although, it
will encounter a capping inversion further east due to a building mid
and upper level ridge, it may survive long enough to move into the
Val Verde county area today and have maintained POPs for that area.
The moist flow from the Coastal Plains into the Escarpment may
generate streamer showers this morning as indicated by hi-res models
and have introduced slight chance POPs for those areas. The mid and
upper level ridge slowly builds over our area. However, the capping
inversion is weak enough to allow the seabreeze to generate
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across areas mainly east of I-35
each day. Any storms may produce gusty winds and brief heavy
downpours. Near normal temperatures today creep slightly above normal
on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The mid and upper level ridge continues to strengthen over our area
later this week into the Memorial Day weekend as a deepening low
pressure system at the surface and aloft moves across the Central
Gulf of Mexico into the Central Gulf Coast. Initially, some moisture
lingers across the far east along the Highway 77 corridor. This may
allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the
afternoon hours of Thursday through Saturday. A slight drying trend
as Gulf moisture decreases due to weak surface ridging along with
good mixing of warming mid level temperatures (850 MB temperatures
of 19C to 24C warming to 24C to 30C) enables surface temperatures to
warm, as well. Expect highs around 100 or so along the Rio Grande
during the weekend, spreading to the I-35 corridor from San Antonio
south on Memorial Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  91  71  93  72 /  -   10  -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  90  68  92  70 /  -   10  -   10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  91  69  92  69 /  -   10  -   10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  88  68  91  69 /  -   10  -   10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  93  72  95  73 /  -   -   -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  89  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  92  69  94  68 /  -   -   -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  90  68  92  70 /  -   10  -   10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  91  69  92  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  90  71  92  71 /  -   10  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           71  92  71  95  71 /  -   10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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