Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 211121 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
521 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals through the
forecast period. North winds 7 to 12 knots are forecast to continue
through mid-day. Then, wind flow shifts to the east for the I-35
sites and to the southeast for KDRT this afternoon as a surface high
pressure system moves from central to east Texas. Light southeast
winds are expected this evening into Saturday morning as high
pressure pushes into the southeastern coastal states.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
A light freeze is expected across parts of the Hill Country this
morning. Temperatures will range from the lower 30s across the Hill
Country to upper 30s over most areas along Interstate 35 and lower
40s along the Rio Grande. Today`s highs are forecast to reach the
lower 50s across the Hill Country to mid 50s along the Rio Grande.
Low level moisture lingers around the Rio Grande for most of today
with mostly cloudy skies while the rest of the area enjoys partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Surface high pressure system over the region is forecast to push to
the east through the short term period (today through Saturday) with
winds shifting from the northeast to east to southeast next 24
hours. With southerly wind flow anticipated to be in place on
Saturday, highs likely to reach the 60s after a cool morning in the
30s. Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Saturday as moisture
increases and spreads over South Central Texas.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
With return flow yielding increased moisture and cloud cover,
overnight low temperatures on Saturday night into Sunday morning will
be about 10 degrees warmer than the previous several nights.

By Sunday, an upper level low and accompanying short wave trough
comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains. This will
further increase southerly return flow and warm air advection, with
breezy southerly winds, surface dew points rapidly increasing into
the upper 50s, and high temperatures returning to seasonal normals.
While a few isolated warm air advection showers cannot be completely
ruled out on Sunday afternoon, have kept the forecast dry at this
time.

The shortwave trough quickly moves into the Midwest on Monday and
sends a Pacific cold front through the region sometime Monday
morning. The timing of the front will largely determine morning lows
on Monday, and for now have opted for a slower frontal passage,
yielding morning lows well above seasonal normals (mid to upper 50s
for Austin and San Antonio). There could be a few showers along and
ahead of the frontal passage, especially across the Coastal Plains,
but for now have maxed PoPs at 20 percent. Despite the cold front,
high temperatures on Monday are expected to be a couple degrees
warmer than Sunday for most locations. Breezy northwesterly winds
behind the front on Monday afternoon will relax by sunset Monday
evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for lows temps
on Monday night/Tuesday morning to drop to the upper 30s across the
Hill Country to low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Another cold front, this one of the Arctic variety, is expected to
move through the region from northwest to southeast sometime on
Tuesday afternoon (most recent models runs are quicker with the
frontal passage than previous runs). High temperatures on Tuesday
will largely depend upon the exact timing of the cold front. For now
the forecast shows high temps ranging from the mid 60s across the
Hill Country to upper 70s along the Rio Grande. Much like Monday,
breezy north northwesterly winds will come in behind the frontal
passage. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be
chilly, with mid 30s across the Hill Country to upper 30s/near 40
elsewhere. A few locations across the Hill Country could flirt with
freezing.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be much cooler than seasonal
normals with clear skies and breezy northerly winds. Winds will
finally relax by Wednesday evening, and light winds, clear skies and
a dry air mass will allow for efficient radiational cooling
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The current forecast call for
a freeze for the Hill Country with near freezing temperatures
elsewhere.

Cool and tranquil weather is expected to continue into Thursday with
surface high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft over South Central
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  38  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  36  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  37  62  48  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            50  36  58  45  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  42  65  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        51  36  59  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             57  38  64  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  37  62  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  36  62  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  39  62  50  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           55  39  63  51  70 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...17
Long-Term...BMW


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