Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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894
FXUS64 KEWX 220020
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
720 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
A return to ifr and low mvfr cigs near or below 1500 ft should return
late tonight with light southeast winds and high levels of soil
moisture. Low cigs should last through around 17Z or 18Z along the
I-35 while DRT could see a slightly earlier mix out time. Afternoon
convection is considered too isolated for consideration in TAFS for
late Tuesday. However, there could be a dry sea breeze wind shift
that could alter directions and add some late afternoon gusts to 20
knots along I-35 close to 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Early afternoon surface observations show a remnant cold front was
located roughly along a GTU-SAT-DRT line. Elsewhere, some developing
convection is noted across the coastal plains into the Highway 77
corridor. The remnant boundary along with an axis of increased
moisture and daytime heating is aiding in the development of this
convection.

The above mentioned boundary will weaken and become ill-defined
through the evening hours as we expect a return of south to
southeasterly winds across all areas. The hi-res models generally
favor the coastal plains for convection this evening and we have gone
with the higher rain chances across this region. Most activity across
the coastal plains is expected to decrease by late evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Farther west along the Rio Grande, we will
hold on to a low chance for showers and storms through tonight to
account for any activity that develops over the higher terrain of
Mexico, then moves eastward toward the Rio Grande plains. No
significant change in the large scale pattern is expected on Tuesday
and we will mention low chances for rainfall along the Rio Grande and
coastal plains. Temperatures should manage to warm slightly on
Tuesday, with most areas in the 90s, except mid to upper 80s in the
Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The forecast for the remainder of the forecast period will largely
be dominated by a strengthening subtropical ridge axis to our west.
We will certainly keep an eye on what develops in the Gulf of Mexico,
but for now any activity is currently not anticipated to have an
impact on our forecast. Most areas are expected to remain warm and
dry as the ridge strengthens. The exception could be over the coastal
plains, where slightly higher moisture levels will be found. Also,
we can`t completely rule out an isolated storm or two across western
Val Verde county. For either of the above locations, rain chances
will remain very low. Above normal temperatures are expected into
early next week, with widespread highs in the 90s and lows in the
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  91  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  90  69  91  68 /  10  10  -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            68  89  68  89  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  91  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  69  91  69 /  10  20  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  69  91  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  90  69  91  68 /  10  10  -   10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  90  71  91  70 /  20  20  -   20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           71  92  71  92  70 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...17



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