Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231808 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Northwest to northerly winds will continue through
this afternoon and may become gusty for a brief period early this
afternoon along I-35. Winds will then decrease around 00Z. Light
north-northeast winds remain along I-35 overnight, with winds
transitioning to a more easterly direction at DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Surface analysis early this morning shows a surface low over North
Texas with an attendant cold front extending along a Mineral Wells to
San Angelo to Dryden line. The departure of a shortwave trough from
North Texas will pull the surface low and cold front towards the
southeast through the remainder of the morning hours, resulting in
the cold front reaching the Hill Country before dawn and Interstate
35 corridor closer to 8-9 AM. Before frontal passage, dense fog will
linger from the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country and in most of
the region east of Interstate 35 as moisture from yesterday`s rain
remains trapped beneath a shallow inversion located about 1800 ft AGL
on aircraft soundings out of San Antonio. Northwest winds increasing
to 10-15 MPH behind frontal passage combined with mixing from
insolation will allow for fog and low stratus to lift around or
shortly after frontal passage for most of the region.

GOES Total Precipitable Water satellite imagery this morning shows
column moisture under one inch across the region and no rain is
expected with frontal passage. Despite the cold front, dry air and
downsloping winds behind the front will allow for temperatures to
warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s for much of the region today. Cloud
cover trends will need to be monitored through the morning in
Central Texas for potential temperature adjustments as this area
looks to see low stratus linger the longest this morning.

Clear skies tonight and light winds as a surface high slides across
South Central Texas behind the front will promote excellent
radiational cooling conditions, leaving lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s by sunrise. A light freeze may be possible in low-lying areas of
the Hill Country. Dry and pleasant weather continues on Friday with
high temperatures climbing into the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
With Southeasterly winds returning Friday, moisture returns to the
area keeping low temperatures for Friday night mild and cool.
Saturday will be fair with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Continued
increasing moisture and clouds keep lows for Saturday night in the
50s for most of the area. By Sunday a weak cold front is dragged
across the area bringing chances for rain for areas along and east of
I-35 and with little to no change in temperatures as highs remain in
the low 70`s. The brief wind shift from the weak front will interrupt
the moisture return before winds shift back to southeasterly by
Monday afternoon. The next approaching trough and associated front
progged for Tuesday. With continued disagreement among models for the
timing and how far the trough digs south, a blend of solutions was
used as both will factor in for rain chances for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  41  66  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  37  65  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  41  66  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Burnet Muni Airport            61  38  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  44  68  45  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  39  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             71  39  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  40  66  41  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  40  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  42  67  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  44  68  45  68 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...BMW
Decision Support...05



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