Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 152055
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
155 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat warmer than normal afternoons are expected through the
holiday weekend along with dry conditions. A cold front will bring
strong east winds and cooler than normal temperatures to the
region Tuesday along with some scattered snow showers for higher
elevations of the north. Meanwhile a strong storm system aloft
will impact the area mid to late week next week with increasing
chances for rainfall area wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
A large upper level low is currently over the Midwest U.S. and at
the same time a strong upper level ridge is just off shore of
southern California. These two features are giving our region a dry
northwest flow aloft. This flow pattern will keep us dry for the
next several days. At the surface we don`t have much pressure
gradient, so our winds will be light and variable tonight. Low
temperatures Saturday morning will be a few degrees cooler than we
have seen the last couple of mornings.

We will see lots of sun during the day on Saturday. In the upper
level flow a short wave trough will dash across New Mexico during
the afternoon. This system is weak and has no moisture to work with,
so it will only give us a few high clouds to notice its passing. At
the surface our winds will swing around to the west or southwest but
will generally stay at less than 10 mph. These westerly winds will
help give us some warmer temperatures on Saturday, as highs will run
5 to 8 degrees above average. As the short wave trough exits the
region late Saturday evening, it will swing our surface winds around
to the north, but I will let the long term forecaster take it from
here.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday thru Friday
The long term period starts off an a nice note with a
continuation of dry conditions and slightly warmer than normal
daytime temps despite the passage of Saturday`s weak shortwave.
This trend continues into Monday as amplification of the upper
flow pattern brings a more zonal flow to the area and lifts temps
into the upper 60`s in spots.

The situation will then begin to deteriorate quickly starting
Monday night and Tuesday. Shortwave energy aloft over the northern
rockies is progged to quickly dig southwestward over the desert
southwest, eventually forming an anomalous closed upper low along
the coast of the upper Baja. As this happens, a fairly strong back
door cold front will bring increased easterly low level winds to
the area Tuesday along with noticeably colder air. There will be a
slight chance for mainly higher elevation snow showers over the
Sacramento mountains and to a lesser extent over the higher
terrain of the Gila. However any snowfall should be below
advisory criteria creating only minor local impacts.

Meanwhile the upper low to our southwest will begin to tap into
what appears to be a healthy moisture source and begin to lift
some of that moisture up over the Borderland. The latest GFS run
even shows near record PW values of just below one inch by
Thursday morning over the region. As such, some models tend to be
very generous with precipitation output and associated QPF values
as the energy from this upper feature lifts northeast Wednesday
and Thursday. While I am leaning toward a decent chance for
precipitation later next week, I have scaled back on things just a
bit until better model agreement can be had in the days to come.
Note that most of the precip that will accompany this feature
should be rain due to warmer flow aloft. However the mountains
could see snow levels drop low enough to switch precip over to
snow before the system departs.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Our quiet weather pattern will continue for the next 24 hours. We
will see some high clouds pass from time to time, but ceilings
should stay unlimited through tomorrow morning; FEW-SCT250. At the
surface we will see either light northerly winds or light and
variable winds this afternoon and evening. Then tonight the winds
will be light and variable or drainage winds. Little to no weather
impacts expected to operations for the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see quiet and dry fire weather conditions through at least
Monday. Aloft a dry northwest flow will keep our skies mostly clear,
while at the surface our winds will generally be light. On Saturday
afternoon, a weak upper level storm system will dash across the
region, but it will have next to no affect on our area, except to
swing our light westerly winds around to the north at less than 15
mph. Sunday and Monday will be transitions days with dry conditions
and generally light winds as we get ready for a change to our
weather. On Tuesday an upper level storm system will be getting
itself organized just off the southern California coast, while at
the same time a backdoor cold front will move across the region from
the east. The cold front will swing our winds around to the east and
winds could be strong with 20 to 30 mph winds possible. Min RH`s for
Friday through Monday will be pretty dry (15% or less) across the
region, but on Tuesday with the increasing moisture and lower
temperatures, min RH`s will stay above 20% across the area, so
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. The upper level
storm systems will move in our direction on Wednesday and Thursday
and bring a chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers, with
the best chances for precipitation being on Thursday. Right now it
is still too early to talk about rain and snow totals. As we get
closer to midweek next week, we will begin to work out some of those
details.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 30  64  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           30  65  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              29  63  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              25  60  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  43  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   30  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             35  60  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  24  67  24  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               25  65  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      34  64  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               21  64  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            26  69  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              32  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  29  66  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            28  63  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          33  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           27  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   26  63  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                29  67  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               27  60  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 30  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               24  50  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                23  52  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 23  60  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               28  62  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               25  59  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            28  60  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  26  62  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   30  66  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              33  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 32  64  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  26  67  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 25  66  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  71  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              35  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15-Brice/27-Laney



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