000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152317
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
517 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion...

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The low end gusty
winds that we have right now are dropping off, but the winds will
continue out of the east or northeast at around 10 knots during
the overnight hours. And those easterly winds will continue into
Saturday afternoon. Our skies will continue to be unlimited
through at least Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...222 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions, with occasionally breezy afternoons, will persist
across the forecast area over the next 7 days. A weak cool front
moved through the region today, with the coolest temperatures of
the forecast period expected on Saturday morning. Upper level
ridging will promote temperatures warming to near normal this
weekend. Another weak cool front will pass through the Borderland
on Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday...
Currently, the water vapor satellite imagery shows a stream of dry
air across our CWA in wake of a cold front that pushed through our
are early this morning. The temperatures are on the cool to mild
side with the winds from the north northeast and somewhat breezy.
For the tonight, an upper level trough will move out of the area as
a ridge of high pressure builds in.  With ridging aloft, dry air is
forecast to remain in place throughout the night.  With dry air in
place, the low temperatures on Saturday morning will below the
climatological normal. I can`t rule out a few breezy spots overnight
as a surface high pressure centers across the South Plains with
somewhat of a close pressure gradient across our area. The winds
will transition from a northeasterly to a east southeasterly flow
overnight. Except clear skies courtesy of this overhead ridge. For
Saturday, another quiet day is in store for the CWA.  There maybe a
few afternoon breezes, but these breezes will be similar to that of
today with no major concerns whatsoever. The winds will be stronger
in the afternoon especially when there is peak heating coupled with
a strong surface ridge centered across Texas. Another quiet day is
expected with the high temperatures continuing to be below the
average for this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...
Sunday is shaping up to be a beautiful fall day. A synoptic
system will approach the Pac NW, causing our upper level flow to
become southwesterly. This will shift the thermal ridge over the
region, increasing temperatures to near normal (lowland upper 70s).
Winds will be light overall with mostly sunny skies. There will
be an increase in cirriform cloudcover overnight on Sunday, but
dry conditions will persist.

An upper trough will enter the PacNW on Monday and it will
quickly move east through the Rockies and kick out into the
Northern Plains on Wednesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur in
response to mid-level height falls and lee-side troughing in
eastern Colorado. The resultant tightening of the surface
pressure gradient will extend to our northern zones Monday
afternoon. But the bigger contributor to our forecasted breezy
winds will be a H7 20-25 knot jet.

Tuesday also looks beautiful with mostly clear skies and light
overall wind. Another weak and not impactful cold front will pass
through the area on Tuesday night. This will only drop high
temperatures on Wednesday a handful of degrees, with light wind
during FROPA. A weak, inverted trough moves across the region
Wednesday afternoon, bringing high clouds. At this time, any rain
chances for Wed/Thurs stays to our east, and this is reflected in
the NDFD POP grids.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy on Saturday will transition to a dry but less breezy
day on Sunday. The high temperatures on Saturday will be on the cool
side and remain below the normal while on the Sunday the high
temperatures will warm up a few degrees with some areas reaching to
above the normal. Even through the winds will be moderately strong
on Saturday, they will still below the criteria. Beyond Sunday, no
major changes in the weather is expected as we will continue with
this dry trend through the end of the next week. The min RH`s on
Saturday will be between 25 and 30% in the mountains and between 20
and 25% in the lowlands. The min RH`s will increase to 35 to 40% in
the mountains and 25 to 30% in the lowlands.  The vent rates will be
poor to good on both days.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 49  74  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           43  66  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              41  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              40  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              27  52  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   40  69  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             41  64  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  42  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  71  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      50  74  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               39  69  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            46  75  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              43  66  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  48  74  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            44  72  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          45  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           40  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   39  72  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                45  72  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               43  71  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               31  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                31  59  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 30  63  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               37  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            33  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  38  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   34  74  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 41  66  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  45  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 44  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          44  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              45  69  46  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/15