000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301125
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
525 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Quiet and pleasant weather conditions can be expected through the
weekend with temperatures near the seasonal average. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the comings days
over the New Mexico Bootheel and area mountains as the area
experiences a slight increase in moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Upper low stagnant over Sonora continues to push clouds and moisture
towards southwestern New Mexico. Current Nighttime Microphysics
satellite imagery continues to show bands of clouds moving through
the CWA. This is expected to persist through the rest of the night
and today. The upper low will remain and intensify through the day
over Sonora. Even though, it will become stronger as pressure falls
and the vorticity max at the center becomes stronger, it isn`t in a
good spot to pull moisture. Anyway, any activity related to this
system will affect mostly areas west of the Continental Divide from
the NM Bootheel into the Gila region and the Black Range. These
areas will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
starting in the early afternoon. Instability and shear remain
marginal with MUCAPES below 400 J/kg and sfc-6 km shear below 15
kts. Storm motion is low with speeds between 5 to 10 kts from the
south. Therefore, the main hazards will be gusty winds to 30-40 mph,
and brief periods of heavy rain that could lead to localized minor
flooding. The best chances for storms will be in portions of the NM
Bootheel. Areas east of the Cont. Divide will be dry, although some
isolated showers are possible over the Sacramento Mountains during
peak heating this afternoon. However, outflows boundaries from
storms out west may lead to some convective activity up to the Rio
Grande Valley. Regardless, my confidence is very low the farther
east we go.

Tonight, the upper low remains. However, with the loss of daytime
heating convective activity quickly diminishes and dissipates during
the first few hours of the night. Clouds will continue to move
through the area though, but there should be less coverage than this
morning. Less clouds means that there is a chance for better
inversions to develop in desert valleys. Although with additional
moisture in the area, morning low temperatures will be similar to
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

The long term forecast picks up on Saturday with a rather amplified
and slow moving large scale pattern across the contiguous United
States. North/south orientated ridge across the Central Plains will
be sandwiched between a large upper level low over the Intermtn West
and the remnants of the tropical system (formally known as Ian) over
the Appalachian Mtn chain. Meanwhile, the weak upper level
disturbance aforementioned in previous discussions will continue to
spin over Sonora on Saturday and Sunday. This will keep low level
moisture locked in over the western zones of the CWA, focusing west
of the Divide. Isolated showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon for areas along and west of the Divide, along with the
Sacs. Coverage doesn`t look too great with very little upper level
forcing and dynamics in place, thus, 10-30 PoPs will suffice. High
temperatures for this weekend will hover around the seasonal average
for the beginning of October.

Heading into next week, the upper level pattern gradually becomes
messy with model/ensemble differences and discrepancies becoming
prominent. Ensemble guidance and their respected suits continue to
show the amplified wave pattern mentioned above with an upper level
low now over eastern MT, ridge over the plains, and troughing to the
east. Also worth noting, during this timeframe (beginning/middle of
next week), TC Orlene will come into play as it moves off the east
Pacific and traverse across central/northern Mexico. This feature
could also be at play with regard to moisture and "IF" some of it`s
associated moisture moves closer to the International Border.
However, the upper level low over the northern Rockies/Plains
remains consistent, but it`s associated trough axis is the potential
feature at play, which happens to be where the inconsistencies
arise.

Both the GFS (drier solution)/ECMWF (wetter solution) show the
trough axis extending down through CO and into NM, but the ECMWF
shows a secondary shortwave trough protruding from the backside of
the main trough. This will ultimately increase PVA (positive
vorticity advection) across the Intermtn West, eventually forming a
new upper level low over the Four Corners vicinity. The GFS solution
shows the trough axis progressing across the Rockies and Plains with
upper level ridge building in from the west. Looking at WPC Cluster
Analysis, the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and their respected cluster suits
offer little to no help with being able to zone in on a specific
model, creating lower confidence in any of the three solutions. That
being said, the NBM remains in the middle ground between GFS and
ECMWF guidance, mainly highlighting a slight increase in PoPs and
temperatures a few degrees below the normal through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. MVFR conditions
possible in areas west of the Continental Divide due to SHRA/TSRA
reducing CIGS and VIS this afternoon. Convective activity
dissipates after sunset. Although convective debris and high
clouds will continue rolling through the area. Winds will be
generally light and variable or from the southeast this morning.
Winds increase to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon from the southeast,
before becoming light again after sunset. Gusty and erratic winds
are possible near storms due to outflow boundaries during the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Low fire weather risk continues through early next week. A stagnant
weather pattern continues this weekend with an upper low hovering
over Sonora. This system will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms over areas west of the Continental Divide including
the NM Bootheel, the Gila region and the Black Range. The main
hazards with any storms are gusty winds and brief periods of heavy
rain that could lead to localized minor flooding. Otherwise the rest
of the area remains mostly dry through the weekend. Some showers and
weak storms are possible today and tomorrow over the Sacs. Slight
storm chances expand through the northern zones this weekend.
Minimum relative humidity remains above 20% or greater areawide with
good to very good overnight recoveries. Ventilation rates start good
to very good this weekend, then deteriorate to fair or lower next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  88  60  87  62 /  10  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            80  55  80  55 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               85  57  85  57 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo               84  57  84  57 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               62  40  61  41 /  10  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    83  55  82  57 /  10  10  10  10
Silver City              77  54  76  55 /  20  20  30  20
Deming                   86  55  85  56 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                84  56  82  59 /  20  20  10  20
West El Paso Metro       87  62  86  62 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City                86  55  85  56 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             88  56  87  57 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               80  56  79  56 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                   87  58  87  59 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             85  57  85  59 /  10  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           84  60  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            83  50  82  58 /  10  10   0  10
Hatch                    85  56  84  56 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus                 85  57  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                84  55  84  57 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  73  47  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
Mescalero                73  46  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
Timberon                 71  46  70  46 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                  75  50  75  51 /  20  10  30  10
Hillsboro                82  54  81  54 /  10  20  10  10
Spaceport                83  51  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             76  45  75  49 /  30  30  30  20
Hurley                   82  54  81  55 /  20  20  20  10
Cliff                    86  50  84  51 /  30  20  30  20
Mule Creek               80  50  78  54 /  30  20  30  20
Faywood                  80  56  80  56 /  20  20  10  10
Animas                   84  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20
Hachita                  83  55  82  56 /  20  20  10  20
Antelope Wells           83  55  80  55 /  40  30  20  20
Cloverdale               78  53  75  54 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29-Crespo
LONG TERM....38-Rogers
AVIATION...29-Crespo