Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
514 FXUS64 KEPZ 302339 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 539 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Continued daily thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, with the best chances for rain east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monday and Tuesday could see the best coverage for storms promoting heavy rainfall and local flooding. - Drier air moves in for Friday through Sunday. - Temperatures below normal through Friday, then warming back to above normal Saturday and Sunday with some areas reaching 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A push of easterly winds this morning has brought dew points back up into the l/m 60s out east with areas toward the AZ border getting to around 50. Some weak disturbances moving around Four Corners high will trigger typical mountain storms by early afternoon and storms pushing SSW into the evening. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will be the main threats. There is also an inverted trough sitting through Hudspeth county and into the TX Panhandle. This feature will be the focus for precipitation going into tonight and into Wed. The inverted trough will be slowly moving westward and provide the lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop. HRRR even has a nice round of storms moving through TX counties after midnight then another round around midday Tuesday. I like the Tue depiction of activity with the HRRR given the pattern. Wind profiles with 10-20KT easterly flow through about H70 then weak winds aloft can lead to locally heavy rain and flooding, but the question out east is will morning cloud cover limit instability and bring just a more light to moderate stratiform rain. For that reason, after collaborating with neighbors, will hold off on a Flood Watch for now. Temperatures Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s out east to near 90 out west. The trough continues to move west into Wednesday. The GFS is now washing it out by 18Z while the EC continues to hold onto this feature centered right near the RGV. Either way, there will be some lift around and with PW`s getting into the 1.1"-1.6" range and a continued favorable wind profile, there will be another round of precipitation, more likely areawide. May need a watch for Wed if everything comes together. As we progress into Thu, the inverted trough does get washed out as a Pacific trough similar to last week approaches. This, combined with the lingering moisture, will bring another good chance for precipitation areawide with drier air pushing in by late in the day out west. Did raise PoPs with the upper trough pushing through. Even a little shear developing into the afternoon as the WSW flow aloft moves in. Instability not great, but maybe we can get a couple severe storms. Drier air will be in place for Fri-Sat and temperatures warm back up into the mid 90s to around 100 for the lowlands. Models hinting at just enough moisture around the far SW and SE edges of the CWA for a storm or two, but will remain isolated in coverage. Upper high becomes fairly well established over northern NM on all the models, but the low level flow will once again tap Gulf moisture from the southeast and bring a return to some thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 An active monsoon pattern will persist across the region tonight and into tomorrow. The primary concern for aviation will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing over the high terrain and propagating into the adjacent lowlands. These storms will be capable of producing strong and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40 knots, which could lead to significant blowing dust and visibility reductions, particularly at KDMN. Heavy rainfall within these storms also poses a flash flooding risk, especially over burn scars in New Mexico. For the terminals, the main thunderstorm threat will be in the late afternoon and evening hours (00Z-06Z). At KELP and KLRU, thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity, while KTCS and KDMN have a higher probability of direct impacts with associated MVFR to IFR conditions. Overnight, low-level moisture will increase, leading to the development of lower cloud decks, generally in the BKN080-BKN120 range, especially east of the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will generally remain from an easterly to southeasterly direction, becoming lighter after the convective period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Moisture will remain in place through Thursday with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will see some locally heavy rain. Temperatures will be below normal during this time as well. Drier west to northwest flow will move in for Fri-Sun with isolated thunderstorm coverage at best over far southern areas. Temperatures over the lowlands will get back into the mid 90s to around 100 dropping RH`s into the mid teens and 20s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 85 68 85 / 20 50 50 40 Sierra Blanca 63 75 63 78 / 60 70 50 70 Las Cruces 65 84 63 84 / 30 40 50 30 Alamogordo 64 84 62 83 / 30 60 50 50 Cloudcroft 47 59 47 62 / 40 60 50 70 Truth or Consequences 66 86 64 86 / 40 40 50 50 Silver City 60 81 57 80 / 40 60 50 70 Deming 68 87 65 87 / 50 40 40 40 Lordsburg 68 89 67 89 / 30 30 40 60 West El Paso Metro 69 84 68 85 / 20 50 50 40 Dell City 66 76 64 82 / 50 70 50 60 Fort Hancock 69 85 67 85 / 50 80 50 70 Loma Linda 62 77 60 77 / 30 60 50 50 Fabens 69 85 66 85 / 30 60 50 40 Santa Teresa 67 84 66 84 / 30 50 50 40 White Sands HQ 69 84 67 84 / 30 50 50 40 Jornada Range 65 84 63 83 / 30 40 50 50 Hatch 66 85 65 86 / 40 40 50 50 Columbus 69 88 67 87 / 40 30 40 30 Orogrande 66 82 63 81 / 30 50 50 50 Mayhill 53 68 54 70 / 50 70 60 70 Mescalero 53 71 53 72 / 40 60 50 70 Timberon 51 69 50 69 / 40 60 50 80 Winston 53 78 53 77 / 50 60 50 70 Hillsboro 60 84 59 84 / 50 50 50 70 Spaceport 63 83 62 85 / 40 40 50 50 Lake Roberts 54 82 54 81 / 40 70 60 80 Hurley 61 84 58 84 / 40 60 50 70 Cliff 59 87 62 88 / 30 60 40 70 Mule Creek 57 85 60 85 / 20 50 40 70 Faywood 63 82 60 82 / 50 60 50 70 Animas 68 90 67 90 / 30 30 40 60 Hachita 66 86 63 87 / 40 30 40 60 Antelope Wells 66 86 64 88 / 20 30 40 60 Cloverdale 65 84 63 85 / 30 30 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice