204
FXUS64 KEPZ 152104
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
304 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 303 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025

 - Upper ridge over the area will lead to a couple of nice (quiet)
   days--Sunday and Monday.

 - New Pacific storm moves in Tuesday for strong winds and blowing
   dust, and more critical fire weather conditions.

 - Quiet again Wednesday into next weekend with just some breezy
   afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Upper trough is now east of the area as we get the last of the
trailing moisture and isolated showers across the CWA.
Considerable cloud cover this morning has become pretty ragged,
with good sized sun breaks increasing. Most high res members
showing isolated showers done by around 00Z-02Z and that looks
reasonable. Upper ridge moving in to replace the trough will bring
a nice two day break to our area for Sunday and Monday. High temps
near normal Sunday and then well above normal Monday as breezy
southwest winds bring about a large warmup (+15 deg).

Our next storm will begin moving in later Monday into Tuesday.
System moves inland of California Monday afternoon and then over
New Mexico Tuesday afternoon, remaining as an open trough. This
system will bring the aforementioned breezes to the area Monday,
and then much stronger winds in Tuesday. Winds likely to reach
adv/warning criteria. GFS/CMC both show 800mb winds of 50+ knots
Tuesday afternoon, which usually translates into 60+ mph winds
along east slopes of terrain. Trough speed is really fast so
models showing winds, unlike the last several storms, drop off
quite fast Tuesday evening. The strong winds will also exacerbate
fire conditions, pushing levels back to critical. Fire weather
watch remains in effect for Tuesday.

Dry westerly flow moves back in Wednesday and dominates into next
weekend. This will warm temperatures back up well above normal.
Some of the afternoons will be breezy, but no significant wind
events are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period, with SCT-BKN060
BKN150 BKN250. Isolated BKN030 -SHRA lowlands and OVC030 -SHSN
mountains til around 00Z. Skies then becoming SCT060 SCT-BKN250.
Surface winds west/northwest 20-25G35 knots, diminishing to
12-17G25 knots after 03Z, and then AOB 8 knots after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A bit of a quieter week ahead as the Pacific storm frequency
decreases. The one significant feature is the Pacific storm on
Tuesday. This system brings breezy winds in Monday, for elevated
fire conditions. Much stronger winds develop Tuesday, when fire
conditions likely will reach critical levels. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for Tuesday. Right now all zones are included but the
mountain zones RH for Tuesday is marginal, and both these zones
have also received some light snow/rain the past two days. So
mountain zones may need to be removed from future
watches/warnings. Remainder of next week after Tuesday looks
quiet, with just some breezy afternoons.

Min RH: Lowlands 7-13% through Friday. Mountains 20-30% Sunday,
becoming 15-25% Monday/Tuesday, then 10-15% Wednesday through
Friday. Vent rates poor-fair Sunday, excellent Monday/Tuesday,
then back to fair-good Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  37  68  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            31  65  37  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               29  65  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               29  66  33  79 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               19  47  27  59 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  67  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              26  60  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   28  67  34  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                26  67  33  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       37  66  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                30  69  33  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             32  70  37  89 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               32  61  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   33  69  37  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             33  66  37  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  68  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            25  67  30  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    28  70  32  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 34  67  37  83 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                27  66  32  79 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  26  62  32  72 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                22  57  28  68 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 20  57  27  67 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  21  62  25  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                28  66  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                23  67  30  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             19  62  25  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   24  62  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    19  66  22  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               16  62  18  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  28  62  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   28  70  32  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  27  68  32  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           29  68  36  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               31  65  39  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner