Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152055
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
155 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat warmer than normal afternoons are expected through the
holiday weekend along with dry conditions. A cold front will bring
strong east winds and cooler than normal temperatures to the
region Tuesday along with some scattered snow showers for higher
elevations of the north. Meanwhile a strong storm system aloft
will impact the area mid to late week next week with increasing
chances for rainfall area wide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
A large upper level low is currently over the Midwest U.S. and at
the same time a strong upper level ridge is just off shore of
southern California. These two features are giving our region a dry
northwest flow aloft. This flow pattern will keep us dry for the
next several days. At the surface we don`t have much pressure
gradient, so our winds will be light and variable tonight. Low
temperatures Saturday morning will be a few degrees cooler than we
have seen the last couple of mornings.
We will see lots of sun during the day on Saturday. In the upper
level flow a short wave trough will dash across New Mexico during
the afternoon. This system is weak and has no moisture to work with,
so it will only give us a few high clouds to notice its passing. At
the surface our winds will swing around to the west or southwest but
will generally stay at less than 10 mph. These westerly winds will
help give us some warmer temperatures on Saturday, as highs will run
5 to 8 degrees above average. As the short wave trough exits the
region late Saturday evening, it will swing our surface winds around
to the north, but I will let the long term forecaster take it from
here.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday thru Friday
The long term period starts off an a nice note with a
continuation of dry conditions and slightly warmer than normal
daytime temps despite the passage of Saturday`s weak shortwave.
This trend continues into Monday as amplification of the upper
flow pattern brings a more zonal flow to the area and lifts temps
into the upper 60`s in spots.
The situation will then begin to deteriorate quickly starting
Monday night and Tuesday. Shortwave energy aloft over the northern
rockies is progged to quickly dig southwestward over the desert
southwest, eventually forming an anomalous closed upper low along
the coast of the upper Baja. As this happens, a fairly strong back
door cold front will bring increased easterly low level winds to
the area Tuesday along with noticeably colder air. There will be a
slight chance for mainly higher elevation snow showers over the
Sacramento mountains and to a lesser extent over the higher
terrain of the Gila. However any snowfall should be below
advisory criteria creating only minor local impacts.
Meanwhile the upper low to our southwest will begin to tap into
what appears to be a healthy moisture source and begin to lift
some of that moisture up over the Borderland. The latest GFS run
even shows near record PW values of just below one inch by
Thursday morning over the region. As such, some models tend to be
very generous with precipitation output and associated QPF values
as the energy from this upper feature lifts northeast Wednesday
and Thursday. While I am leaning toward a decent chance for
precipitation later next week, I have scaled back on things just a
bit until better model agreement can be had in the days to come.
Note that most of the precip that will accompany this feature
should be rain due to warmer flow aloft. However the mountains
could see snow levels drop low enough to switch precip over to
snow before the system departs.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Our quiet weather pattern will continue for the next 24 hours. We
will see some high clouds pass from time to time, but ceilings
should stay unlimited through tomorrow morning; FEW-SCT250. At the
surface we will see either light northerly winds or light and
variable winds this afternoon and evening. Then tonight the winds
will be light and variable or drainage winds. Little to no weather
impacts expected to operations for the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see quiet and dry fire weather conditions through at least
Monday. Aloft a dry northwest flow will keep our skies mostly clear,
while at the surface our winds will generally be light. On Saturday
afternoon, a weak upper level storm system will dash across the
region, but it will have next to no affect on our area, except to
swing our light westerly winds around to the north at less than 15
mph. Sunday and Monday will be transitions days with dry conditions
and generally light winds as we get ready for a change to our
weather. On Tuesday an upper level storm system will be getting
itself organized just off the southern California coast, while at
the same time a backdoor cold front will move across the region from
the east. The cold front will swing our winds around to the east and
winds could be strong with 20 to 30 mph winds possible. Min RH`s for
Friday through Monday will be pretty dry (15% or less) across the
region, but on Tuesday with the increasing moisture and lower
temperatures, min RH`s will stay above 20% across the area, so
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. The upper level
storm systems will move in our direction on Wednesday and Thursday
and bring a chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers, with
the best chances for precipitation being on Thursday. Right now it
is still too early to talk about rain and snow totals. As we get
closer to midweek next week, we will begin to work out some of those
details.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 30 64 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 30 65 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 29 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 25 60 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 24 43 21 42 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 30 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 35 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 24 67 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 25 65 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 34 64 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 21 64 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 26 69 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 32 58 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 29 66 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 28 63 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 33 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 27 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 26 63 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 29 67 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 27 60 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 30 56 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 24 50 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 23 52 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 23 60 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 28 62 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 25 59 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 60 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 26 62 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 30 66 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 33 63 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 32 64 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 26 67 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 25 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 30 71 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 35 65 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15-Brice/27-Laney