Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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109 FXUS63 KAPX 231029 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 629 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger today. - Rain showers (embedded thunder?) Friday night into Saturday AM. - More rain likely late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis: A closed mid/upper low centered over far northern Lake Superior/southern Ontario will continue to pivot east over Quebec. At the surface, the associated cyclone will follow suit underneath favorable forcing aloft. As this system departs today into tonight, ridging further upstream will become increasingly amplified as it slides from the northern Great Plains over the Great Lakes by Friday morning. Forecast Details: Elevated fire danger today -- Rain-free weather is anticipated across northern Michigan today as aforementioned troughing continues to work east of the region. The main concern for the short term period will be elevated fire danger in place today. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s for most areas south of the bridge this afternoon, west winds will also increase to 10-15 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph. Sunshine and aforementioned winds will aid efficient daytime mixing, especially across areas of northeast lower with downsloping winds from higher terrain further inland. This mixing will drop relative humidity into the 20-30% range for most areas today -- the exception being areas near Lake Michigan which will likely see relative humidity stay above 30%. The combination of warm, dry air, gusty winds, and dry fine fuels leads to elevated fire danger across northern Michigan into this evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Ridging builds towards the end of the week although energy aloft will quickly beat down the ridge Friday night into Saturday and scoot into northern Michigan. Frontal boundary will move through as well associated with a dominant low over the upper Midwest. Thus, showers overspread the region. Next system moves into the region late weekend into early next week as an upper trough and sfc low track into Michigan. Widespread rain possible consequently. Primary Forecast Concerns: Heights aloft build on Friday resulting in warm weather across the interior, cooler near the immediate coasts. This will quickly be displaced by incoming energy Friday night into early Saturday and an associated frontal boundary. Rain showers will be possible with some modest wetting rains for the area. Weak elevated instability will result in the potential for a few embedded storms, will have to keep an eye on the degree of instability to focus on any stronger storm threat. Winds become mildly breezy as well, especially over the nearshore & open waters. Short break in the action much of the rest of this weekend, then the next system to watch will be late Sunday into early next week. Current guidance progs an upper & sfc low moving from the Central Plains into Michigan with widespread rain showers (occasional embedded thunder) Sunday night into early next week. Potential exists for a good slug of rain across the region depending on the exact positioning of this system. Looking at ensemble guidance, GEFS and EPS sfc low positions show a pretty favorable track for rain across northern Michigan at this time, and thus the moderate probabilities for >0.5" of rain. Think these solutions are reasonable but it is worth mentioning that there is still spread in the individual solutions which could result in less precip (some members farther west, some farther southeast). Hints at some instability possible Sunday night into Monday thus some embedded convection but that will ultimately come down to the exact evolution of this system. Right now calling for the potential for wetting rains Sunday night into much of Monday with "cool" temps into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan through the duration of the issuance period. West winds will increase this morning, reaching sustained wind speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts beginning later this morning into early this evening. Winds are expected to weaken this evening into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...DJC