Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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711 FXUS63 KAPX 250144 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 944 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight. - Rain likely Sunday night, showers continue into Memorial Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Occluded low is centered along the Minnesota/Canada border late this evening. Associated front has reached Western Wisconsin... with the warm front extending southeastward thru Green Bay and Lower Michigan. Area of showers and embedded sub-severe thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of the cold front...remaining mostly contained within the warm sector attm. Latest KAPX base ref loop shows increasing shower development... much of which is not reaching the ground as of yet thanks to dry SE low level flow. More substantial shower and embedded thunderstorm activity is now moving onshore around FKS and MBL...marking the leading edge of deeper moisture along the leading edge of the warm front. This entire system will slide thru Michigan overnight into Saturday morning...generating widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms for our entire CWA. Expect thunderstorms will remain below severe limited thanks to limited instability and minimal shear available for organized convective development. Overnight lows will cool into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Synopsis/pattern: 994mb low pressure is over eastern ND, moving nne. An associated occluded/cold front se and then s, across se MN and central IA. This front crosses northern MI Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave energy pivots ne-ward across upper MI and Superior late tonight. Forecast: An initial band of showers is trying to advance across central Lake MI. Our low and mid-levels remain pretty dry; surface temp-dew points spreads are around 30f in some interior areas. Perhaps a few sprinkles will be possible over the next few hours in nw lower MI, mainly near/west of M-37. Otherwise though, we`ll just push some thicker cloud cover into the area. Our precip chances really ramp up from late evening onward. Better/richer return flow develops, as sub-850mb winds become more southerly and less easterly, just ahead of the front. Though better instability is across southern lower MI, a narrow axis of better Cape (MuCape in high triple digits as far north as US-10 tonight) does impinge on this area. And the pivoting shortwave produces height falls aloft, before warm/moist advection has ended. Convection will reach the MBL area initially (late evening), then expand e and n across all of northern MI tonight. Not anticipating a svr threat, with substantially elevated convection. QPF of around 0.50" will be common, especially in western and northern areas. Have slowed down precip departure slightly very late tonight into Saturday. Even with a somewhat slower fropa, available instability during the daylight morning hours Saturday will be meager. Do hang onto some showers a bit longer, and a bit further west, Sat morning. Still have precip entirely exiting by 2 pm, with clearing skies from w to e. Low temps tonight near 50f to the mid 50s. Highs Saturday in the 60s to mid 70s, warmest near Saginaw Bay. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Higher pressure will build in Saturday night, giving way to calmer winds. Skies could take a little longer to clear out, which will keep the cooler air mass only around 5 - 8 degrees cooler than the previous night. A surface low over the central plains will help deepen an upper level shortwave Sunday. A slightly stronger mid to upper level jet will carry it northeastward towards the Great Lakes region (reaching Ontario by Monday midday). Southeast winds will become breezy in the afternoon hours as the surface gradient tightens from west to east and stronger winds aloft move overhead. Models want to advect around 1 inch of PW (mean of global ensembles for Sunday/Monday), leading to showers and thunderstorm chances Sunday night into early Monday. Brief clearing will be seen Monday ahead of another upper level shortwave approaching quickly, brining more rain chances for Monday evening/night. Less confidence in storms with this round. A deeper upper level low drops south from Canada into MN Tuesday morning. This low swings through and continues cooler temperatures and cloudy/rainy weather through mid week. Possibly drying out near the end of the work week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: For the thunderstorm chances Sunday night into Monday morning, the PW values around an inch check out as Gulf moisture advection into the Mississippi River Valley keeps getting cut off by a fairly progressive pattern as of late. The inch of PW will be enough for some rain/shower activity however, just maybe not enough moisture for higher instability (which is also reflected in the models). Sunday night into Monday will likely be what we have been seeing lately, a line of convection along the front moving in from the west Sunday evening continuing over the CWA through the night. The upper level low could be close enough to help provide more lift/instability, which could hold the storms together as they move across northern MI. However hazards expected at this time look to be marginal and include heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front that will sweep thru the Western Great Lakes region tonight into Saturday morning. VFR conditions will drop to low VFR this evening and then to MVFR/IFR overnight into Saturday morning as the convection impacts Northern Michigan. Conditions will improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon as this cold front and resulting precip exit our region. E/SE surface winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight will become W/NW on Saturday in the wake of the cold front. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MLR