Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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213 FXUS63 KDLH 272335 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 635 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue through the afternoon, moving east through sunset. Thunder may be possible (20-30%) south of Brainerd to Hayward line. No severe weather is anticipated. - Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow (20- 40%). - Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances returning Thursday night. - Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed morning and NW WI for Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light rain showers are ongoing across the Northland, and are likely more of nuisance showers for those outside trying to enjoy their cloudy Memorial Day. Parts of SW MN have seen some clearing today providing for some lightning and little better convective environment. As the surface low pushes SE this evening, some of that better instability may skirt across our southern border, roughly along a Brainerd to Hayward line, where a few claps of thunder may be heard. Otherwise, rain shower chances continue to push E/SE through the evening and into NW WI after midnight. Tuesday`s high temperatures will be cooler, albeit still in the 60s, behind today`s system. A secondary shortwave will drop into the region from Manitoba bringing additional rain chances. With plenty of clouds and similar convective parameters as today (low CAPE, low sheer), scattered airmass showers and maybe an occasional storm will be possible across the area. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday allowing high temperatures to rise back to near or just above seasonal average, along with a short period of quiet weather. Mostly clear skies will allow morning temperatures to drop bringing patchy frost concerns across northern MN for Wed morning and NW WI for Thursday morning. Thursday night rain chances return as a troughing sets up in the Plains setting up an unsettled pattern that will last through the weekend. High temperatures stay right around seasonal average through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Showers continued early this evening across portions of the Northland, especially northwest Wisconsin. MVFR or brief dips to IFR will be possible with the showers. The period will feature several more chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as an upper trough moves into the area. Area radars show another line of showers moving southeast toward Walker and the Brainerd Lakes and it should arrive in a few hours. Yet more showers will develop overnight and especially with some heating on Tuesday with the upper trough and cooler air aloft. Timing the showers will be a challenge and we were generous with using VCSH and targeted a few periods with PROB or TEMPO groups. Updates through the period will refine timing further. MVFR conditions will become more widespread for a time Tuesday morning into early afternoon, especially over northwest Wisconsin. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday night. They will become northwest tonight and veer to north late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds will continue to veer Wednesday becoming onshore during the day Wednesday and remaining at or below 15 knots. The exception on Wednesday will be in the Twin Ports area where they will be a bit stronger. Easterly winds will occur into Thursday and be a bit stronger yet for all areas, generally 10 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts. The strongest winds will occur in the Twin Ports area. There may be some spotty thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday over the far western part of the lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LR AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde