Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 111925
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS...BUT WE
EXPECT THEM TO RISE ONCE THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND IN AN AREA OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHOW SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET...AND WE THINK THE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL COME AFTER SUNRISE. IF A STRONGER SHOWER MOVES
THROUGH...SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS WARMEST AND
FASTEST MOVING THE AREA OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE
ISSUES REGARDING PRECIP TYPE FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. WE DROPPED HIGHS
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE ALSO INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH. A STRONG AREA OF FGEN IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE MODELS...THERE JUST IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHERE IT WILL
OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE SNOWFALL FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE GREATLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH THE ARROWHEAD FROM 35 TO 40 AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE FIFTIES. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WE ARE DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A COOL DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER
WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO OUR NW WI CWA. IT SHOULD QUIET
DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 30S.
COULD SEE SOME DAYS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE STRUGGLES TO REACH 30. THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. OVERALL WILL INCREASE POPS AROUND
THE THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT KEEP IT IN CHANCE POPS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIODS DURING THE EXTENDED
ALTHOUGH PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DURING SOME OF THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS ESPECIALLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AND RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT HIB AND INL. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  39  29  38 /  60  70  30  20
INL  31  40  25  37 /  70  70  40  20
BRD  41  56  31  42 /  70  50  20  20
HYR  37  50  31  42 /  70  80  30  30
ASX  34  42  30  39 /  60  70  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART






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