Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 222255
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  39  24  24 /  30  40  60  60
INL  25  36  17  19 /  30  40  60  50
BRD  28  38  19  21 /  20  30  40  40
HYR  32  43  28  28 /  50  50  70  70
ASX  31  43  30  30 /  40  50  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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