Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another day of temperatures well above normal with some
  records possible again.

- Low humidity today with gusty winds of around 20 mph possible
  creating near critical fire weather conditions.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the rest of the period
  with some much cooler late next weekend into early next week.

- Higher chances for precipitation, rain/snow, this weekend with
  lake effect snow remaining possible into early next week along
  the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A cold front will exit eastern portions of the Northland this
morning but temperatures today will still be well above normal,
with highs from 59 to 64 degrees from Brainerd to the Twin
Ports and over northwest Wisconsin. Forecast soundings reveal
good mixing will develop through the day with low humidity
developing for most. Minimum humidity will be from 18 to 30%
for most with values a bit higher toward the International
Border. The deeper mixing will result in gusty winds, especially
late morning into the afternoon. We bumped up wind/gusts some
and mostly have sustained winds from 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. A few higher gusts will be possible this
afternoon. Chances for gusts at or above 20 mph are 50-90% from
the Brainerd Lakes into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin
but decrease to 40% or less for gusts exceeding 25 mph. These
conditions will create near critical fire weather conditions
over northwest Wisconsin and into a central to northeast
Minnesota. We will issue a Special Weather Statement
highlighting the fire weather conditions.

As the boundary layer cools this evening, winds will diminish
and the humidity will rise overnight.

Low pressure is forecast to move into southern Kansas by 00Z
Thursday. Winds over the Northland will be north to northeast
Wednesday with dry conditions expected. It will be cooler with
highs from the lower to mid-forties over far northern Minnesota
to the lower to mid-fifties over our southern areas. It will be
cool around Lake Superior with off lake winds. The humidity will
be higher for most with values from 35 to 55 percent. Far
southern areas could dip to 25 to 35 percent.

Models are in pretty good agreement moving low pressure
northeast on Thursday into southern Iowa or northern Illinois
Thursday evening. Most of the Northland will be dry with highs
in the forties. We do have low chances, 20-30%, for light
snow/rain Thursday into Thursday evening from east central
Minnesota into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Significant
precipitation is not expected. Stronger winds will occur
Thursday due to the low, especially over and near Lake Superior.

A clipper system will move southeast into the region this
weekend bringing with it a better chance (40-60%) for
precipitation and colder temperatures. We have a rain/snow mix
forecast initially with it becoming all snow Saturday night.
Significant snowfall is not expected at this time for most.
However, the global models are forecasting 850MB temperatures
down to 10-18C below zero Sunday into Monday. Northerly winds
will occur and will create lake effect snow in the snow belt of
the South Shore where higher accumulations may occur. Highs
Sunday/Monday are expected in the upper twenties to mid-
thirties.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most through the period. A cold
front will exit eastern portions of the Northland early this
morning. Satellite shows some lower ceilings over parts of
southern Manitoba moving southeast. Chances these affect KINL
today are slim, less than 15%. A better chance (40-80%) for
lower ceilings will occur late this evening/overnight over far
northern Minnesota. We added ceilings at KINL but only have
SCT010 at KHIB. There could also be some patchy fog over far
northern Minnesota late tonight.

In the wake of the cold front today, mixing will deepen and tap into
some stronger wind aloft creating periodic higher gusts. The
wind is expected to diminish quickly this evening with the onset
of boundary layer cooling.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Winds will be or become west or northwest today behind a cold
front. Most will see speeds of 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts
to 20 knots. Winds will veer tonight into Wednesday becoming
east to northeast for most areas with parts of the North Shore
seeing more of a south or southwest direction. Speeds will be 8
to 15 knots.

Low pressure well off to the south will cause winds to increase
Wednesday night into Thursday with all areas becoming northeast.
10 to 20 knots winds with gusts of 20 to 25 knots will create
hazardous conditions for small vessels, especially from Silver
Bay to the Twin Ports and along portions of the South Shore.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Another period of elevated wind/waves will occur Friday night
into the weekend.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde


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