Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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077 FXUS63 KDLH 252024 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 324 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are not expected to be severe, but there could be a few strong storms this afternoon into this evening. - Storms weaken late this evening and rain lingers overnight over a narrow band. - Active weather continues through early next week with rain and thunderstorms. - Weather quiets down midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 After a fairly pleasant day, a 35 to 50 kt LLJ will bring in moisture from the southwest and destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and evening. This should spawn some thunderstorm activity. While the parameter space is not overly remarkable, it also isn`t weak. Deep layer shear is hovering around 50 kt with CAPE sub-1000 J/kg. Updraft Helicity is not great, but there is a couple hour window late this afternoon along a baroclinic zone that extends from Brainerd to Duluth and slightly eastward into NW WI that could be a focal point for the stronger storms. Already see a little convection going up west of St. Cloud and the preceding visible satellite field is indicative of a high shear environment with decreasing stability. Steep low level lapse rates are also developing with all of the insolation that occurred earlier in the day. All this to say, that it could be a bit active over the next 3 to 6 hours before setting down overnight. While it does calm down thunderstorm-wise, there still will be moisture advecting along this same boundary overnight causing lighter rain. May have to watch for minor flooding if cells train given our recent influx of water. Tonight clouds clear near Koochiching County allowing for just enough cold air to warrant a Frost Advisory. The next system on deck will cross Sunday afternoon but largely miss us to the south. This system does have a high PWATS and some potential to provide heavy rainfall across the southern portion of our forecast area in NW WI. A fast-moving clipper follows for a little more rain on Monday and an upper low on Tuesday into Wednesday for more shower activity. High pressure builds Wednesday and should linger into Friday giving us a short dry period before the next trough brings a return of rain for the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A stream of instability over a baroclinic zone will lead to a band of showers and thunderstorms from BRD northeast toward DLH and HYR. Chances for thunderstorms will decrease after sunset but rain showers will persist overnight largely in the same area as the thunderstorms. Kept TAFs VFR for the most part, but tempo`s may be needed for any stronger tstorms. Southwest winds will be gusty today before decreasing overnight and shifting to the northeast. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Pesky southwest winds have been slow to subside, so extended the small craft into this evening. Thunderstorms will disrupt the flow a bit this evening leading to a much quieter night wind- wise over the waters. Winds will stay fairly quiet for the remainder of the weekend except near the Twin Ports where they will get close to 20 kt by Sunday afternoon - may need some small crafts for this. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ010. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe