584
FXUS63 KUNR 281658
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1058 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today and Wednesday

- Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening with
  potential for large hail/damaging wind

- Chance of showers/thunderstorms continue through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Current surface map places trough across eastern Montana into
northwestern South Dakota. For today, upper level ridge over the
Rockies shifts into the plains. Partly cloudy skies today with
highs in the 70s...60s in the Black Hills. As ridge shifts east of
the area tonight, modest theta-e advection and steep mid level
lapse rates may bring some isolated showers/thunderstorms.
Windy and warmer on Wednesday as upper trough moves across the
northern Rockies. Increasing low level moisture  sets the stage
for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over northeastern
Wyoming/western South Dakota with MLCAPE around 1500J/KG.
Weak/moderate shear will favor strong/severe storms along initial
surface trough Wednesday afternoon, with secondary round of
thunderstorms along cold front. Cooler and breezy on Thursday with
bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity east of the forecast area
and in downstream convergence of southern Black Hills/far
southwestern South Dakota. Active pattern continues through the
weekend with series of progressive troughs moving through the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1055 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds will increase tonight and into Wednesday
morning, sustained 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Pojorlie