Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
029 FXUS65 KCYS 302001 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 201 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for a late night severe thunderstorm event in the Nebraska Panhandle late this evening into the early morning hours Friday. - Daily chances for precipitation continue into the weekend before turning drier early next week with above average temperatures. - After a weather disturbance produces a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, dry and warm weather will prevail for Monday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Beautiful day ongoing this afternoon with only some upper level clouds being observed across the CWA. Most of Wyoming under the influence of surface high pressure...in between a departing cold front across central Nebraska and an approaching cold front to the northwest. Surface trough extends from north central Colorado...north into the west slopes of the Laramie Range and then northwest into northern Carbon County. Latest mesoscale guidance continuing to forecast a late show tonight for convection...focusing on thunderstorms developing after 06Z. HRRR most aggressive with development and coverage over Cheyenne and Kimball Counties...possibly into the eastern half of Laramie County. MUCAPE values near 1000 to 1500 J/KG over these areas this evening. Did add severe wording into the southern Panhandle for late this evening into early Friday for thunderstorms. Upper shortwave tracks across eastern Montana/northeastern Wyoming Friday afternoon for another rounds of scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Saturday may perhaps be our best chance for severe convection as a dryline develops across southeast Wyoming and pushes eastward into western Nebraska. Depending on the timing of this dryline push...could see supercells developing across the Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Storm Prediction Center already has a Slight Risk area identified for the Panhandle Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Sunday...A progressive and low amplitude shortwave trough aloft is progged to move across the forecast area around peak heating. Although low and mid level moisture looks rather scant, there should be enough moisture for isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 25. A bit warmer than Saturday with 700 mb temperatures near 11 Celsius, yielding maximum temperatures in the upper 70s west of I-25, with 80s east of I-25. Monday...Looks like the warmest day of the week with 700 mb temperatures near 15 Celsius, yielding high temperatures from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Warm temperatures aloft and limited low and mid level moisture will likely keep this day dry. Tuesday...A progressive shortwave trough aloft moves across the northern Rockies, sending a dry cold front across our counties, and dropping high temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees. Wednesday-Thursday...Ridging aloft builds across our forecast area, producing mostly clear conditions and warm temperatures with 700 mb temperatures near 14 Celsius on Wednesday and 17 Celsius on Thursday. Warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit convective development. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Westerly flow aloft, combined with a passing cold front and weather disturbance will help to produce a chance of thunderstorms mainly after midnight and primarily over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Wyoming TAFS...Clear skies will prevail this afternoon. Scattered to broken clouds near 15000 feet will occur at Rawlins overnight and Friday morning. At Laramie, ceilings will lower from 15000 feet this evening, to 6000 to 10000 feet late tonight and Friday morning. At Cheyenne, scattered clouds near 12000 feet will occur this evening, then ceilings near 10000 feet will prevail after midnight, lowering to 1500 to 4000 feet early Friday morning. Showers will be in the vicinity of Cheyenne from 06Z to 11Z. Winds at all terminals will gust to 30 knots until 01Z, and gust to 20 knots at Cheyenne from 06Z to 11Z, and to 25 knots at Rawlins after 15Z Friday. Nebraska TAFS...Mostly clear skies will prevail this afternoon, with scattered clouds near 10000 feet this evening, lowering to 5000 to 10000 feet after 05Z, and to 2500 feet at Sidney after 10Z. Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of Scottsbluff and Sidney from 05Z to 15Z, and showers in the vicinity of Chadron and Alliance after 05Z. Winds will gust to 25 knots at all terminals until 01Z, and to 22 knots at Scottsbluff from 05Z to 07Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN