793
FXUS64 KFWD 281653
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Wednesday/

A complex of severe storms that moved through North Texas early
this morning continues to push into Central and East Texas at this
time. A large area of lighter rain and embedded, non-severe
storms will gradually clear from northwest to southeast through
early afternoon, leaving many areas rain-free this afternoon and
evening. However, we will maintain some low PoPs (10%-30%) pretty
much everywhere to account for lingering moisture, stray outflows,
and some afternoon heating. The better storm chances will arrive
across the western counties this evening with storms moving off
the dryline. TTU WRF and HRRR are in decent agreement on storms
timing with an organized line reaching the I-35 corridor around
midnight and exiting into East Texas by sunrise. This solution
seems reasonable and we will based our forecast around it. The
good news is that the atmosphere behind the Wednesday morning
storms should be very worked over, so we will keep storm chances
low on Wednesday for most areas.

High temperatures today will be very tricky since rain-cooled
outflow has knocked temps into the 60s in most locations. There
will be afternoon sun in many spots so we should recover at least
into the 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the
middle and upper 60s behind the overnight complex of storms.
Wednesday temperatures should be slightly higher than today due to
a bit more daytime sun.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024/
Update:

The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track,
therefore no significant changes were made to the previous
forecast. The first in a series of weak shortwaves/perturbations
embedded in the W/NW flow aloft will shift over a High Plains
dryline on Tuesday. The resulting thunderstorm complex will carry
primarily a damaging wind threat as these storms progress
east/southeast into our area during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Tuesday. There will also be a threat for isolated
instances of large hail, particularly south I-20 and west of I-35.
This repetitive pattern of passing disturbances and daily storm
chances will continue through the end of the week. Multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall will likely lead to an increasing flood threat,
especially given vulnerable soils due to recent rainfall. This
unsettled pattern is likely to continue through the upcoming
weekend as the weakening upper ridge shifts to the east late week.
In its wake, a series of shortwave troughs riding around the
upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will eject across the northern
Rockies keeping our pattern somewhat amplified.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Evening and Beyond/

An active northwest flow pattern will set up over North and
Central Texas by midweek as the region becomes sandwiched between
a developing ridge over portions of the Desert Southwest/northern
Mexico and troughing over the Great Lakes region. An initial
shortwave perturbation looks to shift over a sharpening dryline
late Tuesday afternoon/evening, initiating isolated to scattered
convection over portions of West Texas and the Big Country. This
activity will likely develop initially as supercells before
growing upscale into a cluster of cells or possibly an MCS. With a
northwesterly mean cloud-layer wind and a 25-35 southeasterly
LLJ, this complex of thunderstorms will rapidly shift southeast
toward our forecast area late Tuesday evening into the overnight.
Where the initial convection occurs will play a large part in
determining where this complex tracks Tuesday evening/night.
However, there are several signals that our western Central Texas
counties could witness the brunt of this complex`s impact.

These convective systems tend to track along instability
gradients, and most guidance right now places that SBCAPE
gradient/weak, stalled frontal boundary generally along/south of
the I-20 corridor Tuesday night. This track over western Central
Texas and the Hill Country may also be reinforced by outflow from
thunderstorms near the Red River Valley earlier in the day. Damaging
wind gusts along the leading edge of this complex and isolated
hail will be the primary hazards. Latest high-resolution guidance
currently places an area along/southwest of a Breckenridge-
Hillsboro line in the track of this potentially severe line of
storms. The portion of this complex north of the instability
gradient will likely be sub-severe with a lack of surface-based
instability present. PWATs approaching 1.9-2.1" and warm cloud
depths greater than 15,000ft will make these thunderstorms very
efficient rainfall producers and several locations beneath these
storms could pick up a quick 2-3" of rain. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the next couple of days as we further refine
location and timing details.

This active pattern will continue through the rest of the work
week with daily chances for thunderstorms over portions of North
and Central Texas through at least Saturday. Coverage Wednesday
may be more isolated, but the next chance for more widespread
rainfall looks to arrive late Thursday into Friday as another
compact shortwave progresses overhead through the northwesterly
flow aloft and the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary lifts
north toward the Red River enveloping most of the region in
moderate surface-based instability. Severe weather will be
possible at times. Additionally, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
will increase the flooding threat, especially over already
saturated areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be slightly tempered
by clouds and precipitation with widespread afternoon highs in the
80s and low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-60s to low 70s.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFS/

The complex of severe storms that blow through the TAF sites this
morning will continue to exit to the east and southeast. Very
strong wake low winds remain across the Metroplex TAF sites but
they will likely decrease as the cirrus shield exits to the east.
We anticipate VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon and
most of the evening with a few lingering clouds between 5000 and
8000 ft and scattered to broken high clouds. Another line of
storms is expected to form on the dryline this afternoon across
West Texas. These storms should begin impacting all terminals,
including Waco, between 05Z and 10Z. Storms will exit to the east
after sunrise Wednesday.

Strong and gusty east to southeast winds will decrease in the next
couple of hours. The wind will remain from the east to southeast
this afternoon through Wednesday morning at speeds between 8 and
14 knots along with some higher gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  69  83  71  85 / 100  60  50  30  30
Waco                90  70  82  71  85 /  50  80  60  20  30
Paris               81  67  81  67  80 / 100  80  70  30  40
Denton              84  67  82  69  83 / 100  60  50  30  30
McKinney            83  68  82  69  82 / 100  70  60  30  30
Dallas              87  69  83  72  85 / 100  60  50  30  30
Terrell             85  68  82  69  84 / 100  60  60  30  30
Corsicana           87  69  84  71  86 /  80  60  60  20  30
Temple              90  70  83  71  86 /  50  70  50  20  20
Mineral Wells       86  68  81  69  84 /  90  70  50  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$