Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200845
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will continue to move slowly southeast across the
region this morning and exit the forecast area this afternoon. A
broken line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
cold front will exit the region this morning with only some
lingering post frontal showers and a few storms across the
southeast zones this afternoon. The severe weather potential will
decrease significantly through the day as the upper low lifts
northward across the Central Plains and dry/subsident air filters
in from the north. A few storms could still briefly become severe
across the east/southeast zones, mainly this morning with damaging
winds and marginally severe hail.

Today will be noticeably drier and cooler across all but the
southeast zones. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 70s
across the northwest to the middle 80s in the southeast.

The cold front is progged to remain south of the forecast area
tonight. However, weak isentropic lift will set up and result in
the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
activity tonight/Sunday morning should remain south of the I-20
corridor, but there is a chance that a few showers and storms
could make it a bit farther north tonight and affect parts of the
Metroplex as per the Texas Tech WRF solution. Any storms that do
develop tonight will be elevated and should be non-severe, but
will have a potential to produce locally heavy rainfall due to
high precipitable water values and slow movement.

Weak isentropic lift will continue Sunday/Sunday night which will
result in scattered showers and storms, mainly across the
southern zones. Precipitation chances will increase on
Monday/Monday night as the front begins to lift northward in
response to another developing low pressure system across the
Central Plains. The warm air advection will be brief due to the
passage of a cold front on Tuesday. The front will be a focus for
showers and storms on Tuesday followed by cooler and drier air
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The second half of next week will be rain-free with a warming
trend due to building upper level high pressure. It does appear
that rain chances will return sometime next weekend as the upper
ridge builds east and another low pressure system develops in the
west.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/
Convection has finally surged eastward in response to a shortwave
trough kicking northeastward across Northwest Texas. This has also
given a cold front a bit of a southeastward push, which should
help fill in the gap in the convection from north of the Metroplex
to the Red River. Since activity is now more progressive, a gusty
wind threat will be the main weather hazard along with frequent
lightning. Storms will push east of the Dallas-Fort Worth area in
the next few hours. Waco may get a bit of a reprieve later
tonight, but then additional rounds of precipitation will be
likely across KACT during the Saturday morning hours as the front
pulls up stationary.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  61  82  65  81 /  40  10  10   5  30
Waco                81  63  81  65  79 /  60  30  20  20  50
Paris               77  58  80  60  78 /  50  10   5   0  20
Denton              76  56  81  61  80 /  30  10   5   5  30
McKinney            77  58  82  61  80 /  40  10   5   5  30
Dallas              79  62  83  66  81 /  40  10  10  10  30
Terrell             78  61  81  63  78 /  50  10  10  10  30
Corsicana           81  64  82  65  79 /  60  30  20  10  40
Temple              82  63  81  65  81 /  60  40  30  30  50
Mineral Wells       76  56  82  61  80 /  30  10   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/79



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