Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290842
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING FLOODING TO THE
WESTERN STATES IS CENTERED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER THIS
MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL BE
LEAVING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR CANADA. A SECOND SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO EL PASO.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN BLOCKING
THE GULF MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL SWITCH BACK SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO CLIMB WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE RED RIVER.
I DROPPED THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST BECAUSE
THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY STILL HAS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME INITIATING AWAY FROM THE
FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS.
TIME/HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL MOTIONS INCREASE AND THE
CAP BREAKS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. LAPSE RATES ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
STEEP WITH CAPE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS MAY
FORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. SINCE THE FRONT WILL NOT STALL AND CONVECTION WILL
NOT BE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE FRONT...ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD
BE VERY LOCALIZED AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY
FLOOD PRONE. LOW SOIL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
TO SOAK IN RATHER THAN RUN OFF. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW
OVERALL AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT WHERE STORMS FORM.

PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARER THE FALL
NORMALS...MID 80S. LOWS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRIER AIR MASS...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE COOLER SITES DIPPING INTO THE 40S. THEN
ANOTHER WARM UP OCCURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
THE WINDS THAT SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON VEERED BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
/12Z/. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REAMIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  91  73  94 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              91  66  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             85  65  85  68  90 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            88  65  89  70  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  65  90  69  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            90  71  90  74  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           90  69  90  72  94 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         91  69  90  72  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  65  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  64  90  68  93 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




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