Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012047
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 50S OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...PROVIDING US A FIRST-HAND
ACCOUNT ON WHY THE DRY HEAT IS BETTER THAN OUR USUAL HIGH HUMIDITY
HEAT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY
DRYING OUT IN THIS REGION TOO. THIS IS LOWERING INSTABILITY
VALUES...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY SATURATED WHICH MEANS SOME MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
CURRENTLY NEAR VERNON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LIFT GENERATED BY
THIS FEATURE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE ELEVATED MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WARRANTS KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE
NW ZONES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE DFW METROPLEX SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE
VIRGA THAN ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER SOME MID LEVEL MORNING
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN REMAIN UNUSUALLY LOW...MAKING IT FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE AT FIRST
GLANCE. UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL REMAIN KIND OF FLAT AND SQUASHED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS MEANS THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE OVERLY PROMINENT...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY STRAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE THE TAIL END OF
SHORTWAVE FORCING MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS...THIS CHANCE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE WORDED
FORECAST AT THIS TIME SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH 5-10
PERCENT POPS. EVEN THOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
ALOFT WITH THE WEAKER UPPER HIGH...THERE WILL BE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAN WHAT WE SAW DURING THE LAST TWO
WEEKS...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 97 TO 103 RANGE OVER THE
CWA.

BY NEXT SATURDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND PROVIDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER THAT...SO HOT AND DRY LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WELL
INTO MID AUGUST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY EAST
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS CONTINUING. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A MIX OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 100-120 KFT AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF THE DFW TAF SITES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. IT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING APART AS PEAK
HEATING COMMENCES BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THAT THIS RAIN-COOLED AIR MAY LEAVE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE ARE LOW CHANCES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. IF THESE
OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE DFW TAF SITES BUT
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  98  77  99  79 /   5  10   5   5   0
WACO, TX              69  98  73  99  76 /   5   5   0   5   0
PARIS, TX             69  97  71  98  74 /   0   5   0   5   0
DENTON, TX            72  98  71  99  76 /  10  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  97  70  98  76 /   5  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  99  78 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           70  98  72  98  75 /   0   5   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  99  74  99  76 /   0   5   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  98  71  99  74 /   5   5   0   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  72  98  73 /  20  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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