Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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502
FXUS64 KFWD 281520 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1020 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick update to adjust the orientation of PoPs/Wx based on trends
and latest model output. Otherwise, the majority of the forecast
remains unchanged.

Morning visible satellite and radar imagery revealed a small
cluster of showers this morning across the eastern counties. This
activity should continue to slide off towards the west-northwest
this morning. Water vapor imagery combined with RAP analysis
suggests that this area of showers was associated with a westward
moving H5 vorticity lobe pivoting around the parent low across the
TX Gulf Coast. Continued east flow should advect an environment
characterized by near 2" PWAT values westward towards North and
Central TX through the remainder of the morning and into the
afternoon hours. With modest ascent from the H5 vort lobe, pockets
of diabatic heating and decreasing convective inhibition, there
should be the development of isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially across eastern zones where the
moisture quality will be higher compared to areas out west. It`s
quite possible that some areas across far western/northwest zones
see little in the way of precipitation today, but will carry a low
mention as CIN is expected to also diminish out across these
regions as well. As a result, have reconfigured late
morning/afternoon PoPs to reflect more of a NW to SE gradient
across North and Central TX.

Bumped temperatures down by a degree or two across NE zones where
cloud cover is already in place and additional convection is
expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
remains in very good shape. Updated products have been
transmitted.

24-Bain


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across most of North Texas this morning but
satellite imagery shows a slug of mid level moisture moving in
from the east. Some scattered showers have already developed and
will likely spread west through the morning. Latest hi-res
guidance is a little more robust on convective chances through the
afternoon hours as we get into peak heating. This is likely in
response to this increased moisture and weak ascent associated
with the upper low over the Texas coast. For now...went ahead and
put a VCSH in at all the Metroplex airports from 18-22Z but may
have to put in some thunder at the 15Z amendments if these trends
continue. Outside of convection...VFR conditions will prevail with
a light easterly flow.

Dunn


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
The upper level pattern consists of a stationary trough over the
Four-Corners region and a high pressure ridge extending from the
Missouri Valley to the Mid Atlantic states. Water vapor imagery
indicates that a couple of upper level disturbances are currently
working their way slowly west along the southern flank of the East
Coast ridge. One is located off the Atlantic Coast and the other
over the Upper Texas Coast. The TX coastal system is primarily
responsible for the influx of Gulf moisture and resulting periods
of scattered convection across North and Central Texas.

The current pattern is expected to change little over the next
couple of days across Texas as our Coastal system drifts very
slowly west or southwest towards the Coastal Bend. For today
through Tuesday, rain chances will generally be highest across the
southern counties which are closest to the vicinity of the low
pressure area, with the most likely timing occurring during peak
heating hours. POPs today will range from 20 along the Red River
to 40 across the southern-most counties. High moisture and slow
storm motion means that locally heavy rain is likely to be the
main threat, but due to the expected scattered and disorganized
nature of storms, we do not anticipate a major flood threat. Upper
level flow is fairly weak, so we do not expect severe storms. That
said, there could still be a few storms that produce gusty
downburst winds along with frequent lightning.

We will see a pattern change by the middle of the week as the
trough over the Four Corners becomes overtaken by a developing
ridge. This ridge is progged to expand east and strengthen across
the central part of the country during the middle and latter part
of the week. We will have a couple of days of weak northwest flow
aloft as the ridge initially develops out west, which will allow
for at least a slight chance of showers and storms Wednesday and
Thursday.

These are also the days that most eyes will be on the Gulf of
Mexico, where the tropical system currently over the Bahamas will
have moved and likely intensified. Most model guidance continues
to lift this system north to the Central or Eastern Gulf Coast
region before turning it northeast towards the Atlantic Coast,
keeping it well out of range of having any impact on North and
Central Texas.

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will be in store
Friday through next weekend as the ridge dominates the central
part of the country. Beyond Labor Day, it appears that the upper
level pattern may become more zonal and progressive, which would
suggest low end rain chances and temperatures returning to near-
normal values.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  74  93  75  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
Waco                89  72  90  73  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
Paris               90  73  93  74  94 /  40  40  20  10  20
Denton              91  73  93  73  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
McKinney            91  73  92  73  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
Dallas              92  75  93  76  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
Terrell             90  73  91  74  92 /  40  40  20  10  20
Corsicana           90  73  91  74  92 /  40  40  30  20  20
Temple              89  71  89  72  91 /  30  30  40  30  30
Mineral Wells       91  72  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/24



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