Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS64 KFWD 251750 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000 FEET WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-19Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MVFR STRATUS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH BASES EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. IT IS
POSSIBLE KACT MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AND THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO IFR...BUT THE BREEZY
WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 KFT.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AND SHOULD PREVAIL VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KACT AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE DFW METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BUT THE MOVEMENT OF
ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRPORTS. INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF KDFW AT 26/23Z BUT BETTER
DETAILS ON TIMING WILL BE PROVIDED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS (A&M WRF AND HRRR) DO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF I-20
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED STORMS MENTIONED IN
THE SOUTH. WILL JUST EXPAND THE WEATHER GRID (ISOLATED STORMS) A
BIT FARTHER EAST BUT KEEP POP AT 10 PERCENT.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HEADING FOR THE EAST COAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE NEVADA
SYSTEM WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AS IT DOES SO.

THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY GENERATED STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VAD WIND DATA
FROM THE KFWS RADAR INDICATES 55 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 3000 FEET
WHILE SURFACE OBS ARE STILL REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET HAS USHERED IN A DECK OF STRATUS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE SCATTERING. WE MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT THE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT A STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS FORECAST...AND WE WILL PLACE
ISOLATED STORMS WITH LESS THAN 20 POPS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE
WILL SURGE EAST INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG
LIFT GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

TIMING OF THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF
MAINTAINING STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
LOCATION BEING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION
WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER. THE LIKELIHOOD OF UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A SQUALL LINE STILL EXISTS AS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT OVERNIGHT...AS SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...LEADING TO A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
ECHOES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A QUIET PERIOD THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS IN TWO WAVES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE END RESULT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER RESPITE IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION. WEATHER BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT
CURRENT DATA INDICATES ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    84  70  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
WACO                85  70  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
PARIS               81  68  82  65  81 /  10  10  20  70  30
DENTON              84  69  82  61  84 /  10  10  30  70  20
MCKINNEY            82  69  82  62  83 /  10  10  20  70  20
DALLAS              84  71  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
TERRELL             83  70  81  64  83 /  10  10  20  70  30
CORSICANA           84  70  82  65  84 /  10  10  20  70  30
TEMPLE              85  70  84  64  86 /  10  10  30  60  20
MINERAL WELLS       88  69  84  59  85 /  10  10  40  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/79



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.