532
FXUS65 KPUB 102021
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms in the mtns today with isold/sctd storms over
  the region tomorrow afternoon.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon
Wednesday and Thursday, though mostly along the mountains.

- Near to record breaking heat possible Thursday.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms chances increase for Friday through
Sunday, with greatest shower coverage expected Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently...

Weak upper mid level low was noted over N NM/TX border, and was
showing up quite well in the water vapor imagery. Flow over the
region at mid levels was generally east to southwest, and precip
echoes early this afternoon were pushing off to the south to
southwest.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight...

Main concern is for locally heavy rain, mainly across the SW mtns,
the San Luis Valley and possibly the S mtns south of US50. With
plenty of low level moisture still over the region and the lift
associated with the upper low to our south, some of this rain may be
locally heavy, and isolated Flash Flooding may once again be an
issue, especially for the Springs Burn Scar.

The I-25 corridor may see a storm or two, but believe this area will
see not all that much precip today. The only exception may be some
activity over the Palmer Divide region and the Raton Mesa regions.
The rest of the plains east of the interstate will likely remain
dry.

Tomorrow...

Upper low pushes east and flow at mid levels transitions to weak
n`westrly. Residual moisture will be over the region and isolated to
scattered showers and t-storms will push southeast over the mtns and
then the plains. With heights rising over the region, max temps will
start to warm up and expect U80s to L90s to return to most of the
plains tomorrow, with 80s over the Palmer Divide. The SLV should see
highs around 80F. Flash flooding will be less of a concern tomorrow
as there will be less moisture available and storms will be moving
steadily to the southeast. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday Night - Thursday: For around the midweek period, relatively
quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern
Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region, and
the associated subsidence will help to keep much of the area dry
during this period, with the exception being isolated light showers
and weak thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon. Along with
that, isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
are expected Tuesday during the early evening hours, mostly over the
mountains, as a minor short wave pushes over the area, but this
precipitation is anticipated to dissipate quickly during the evening
as diurnal instability wanes and the ridge starts to build. As for
temperatures, the furnace returns, with hot temperatures expected
area wide. Thursday is expected to bring the greatest heat, with
near to record breaking daily max temperatures possible for portions
of the region.

Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, an
uptick in active weather is anticipated for the area. The ridge over
the region will break down and a compact short wave will eject
across the area Friday and Saturday, with southwesterly flowing
prevailing Sunday. This pattern will increase rain showers and
thunderstorms for the area each day, especially Friday, when the
most widespread precipitation is anticipated. Along with that, a
strong thunderstorm or two will be possible Friday given the support
from the wave and an increase in moisture across the region. As for
temperatures, a cool down is expected. Much of the region will drop
back down to around and slightly above seasonal values for mid
June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overall, VFR conditions likely next 24 hours. KCOS and KPUB may
see a passing -TSRA this late afternoon/early evening but
likelihood of this has decreased as hirez guidance has come in
drier last couple of runs. Low level atmos is expected to dry
out with time so low cloud threat for tomorrow morning has
decreased.

KALS will have the best potential for storm late this afternoon
and into the evening hours and kept thunder in this taf during
the time period mentioned above. They may also see some low cigs
tomorrow AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Rapid snow melt continues and increased reservoir releases
continue, leading to elevated flows along the Arkansas River
from Leadville to La Junta through at least tomorrow, along
with smaller creeks and streams close to the mountains. While
water levels are generally expected to stay within their banks,
fast flows can still be dangerous. Storms this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, leading to
elevated flooding concerns. Areas most likely to experience
localized flash flooding will be the burn scars, low-lying urban
areas, and areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday, along
with areas near high- flowing streams, creeks, and rivers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION... HODANISH
HYDROLOGY...SIMCOE