935
FXUS65 KPUB 311013
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are likely (60-80% chance) for our
  plains today, with all modes of severe possible, to include:
  isolated tornadoes, hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging
  winds gusting over 60 mph, and cloud to ground lightning.

- One more day of strong to severe thunderstorms on the plains
  expected on Saturday.

- Hotter and drier weather in store from Sunday into the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Outflow boundaries from late night convection north of our forecast
area are still working through our plains and helping to increase
dewpoints for many locations. Temperatures are in the 50s, with
dewpoints ranging from 50s on our eastern plains to mid 40s across
the I-25 corridor. Satellite imagery depicts mid and upper level
cloud cover across much of the area, and lingering showers still
working their way into northeastern Kiowa County this hour. Overall
thinking is that models are lagging a bit on the amount of moisture
that we may have to work with tomorrow, especially given that
tonight`s convection to our north wasn`t handled very well by many
high res solutions.

Today and Tonight..

In many ways, today looks to be a rinse repeat of the past several
days, with weak convection firing early over the mountains, and
stronger storms firing over the southern plains and the Pikes Peak
region after 1 pm, becoming severe quickly as they move eastward
throughout the afternoon. The main difference with today is that we
will have stronger shear (35 to 40kt), and likely more moisture as
well. CAPE values are still anywhere from 1500 to 2200 J/Kg
depending on timing, location, and model, but again we could be
under-doing our moisture for today already. The forecast vertical
profiles across our plains today give way to more of a non-zero
threat for tornadoes that what we`ve seen for the past several days,
so much so that SPC has included our entire plains along and east of
I-25 in a 2% tornado outlook for this afternoon for the first time
this week. Storm relative helicity values are not super impressive,
but, again, are still non-zero. Highest shear and most favorable
helicity looks to exist across eastern El Paso and into our plains,
generally across areas along and north of Highway 50 this afternoon.
If last night`s convection and today`s moist east-southeasterly
winds end up bringing in more moisture than models are currently
resolving, today could end up being a dangerous day across our
plains, with all modes of severe possible to include isolated
chances for tornadoes. Large hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds up
to 60 mph, and cloud to ground lightning will also be likely with
storms on our plains today, for all areas along and east of I-25.
Please stay weather aware this afternoon, and listen for any
warnings in your area! Though most high res model guidance does
suggest that convection could linger into the overnight hours, the
consensus seems to be that most locations will be quiet and dry by
around midnight or so at the latest. The main exception is the
NamNest, which keeps the possibility of weakening storms on our
plains until nearly 4am this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Mountains and interior valleys begin to dry on Saturday under
w-sw flow aloft, while low level moisture holds on across the
plains for one more day. By late Sat afternoon, air mass along
and east of I-25 becomes fairly unstable, with CAPE approaching
2000 J/KG, while 0-6km shear rises into the 40-45 kt range as
subtle jet streak slips through nrn CO. Above parameters will
favor another round of severe storms from mid-afternoon into
early evening, before activity shifts eastward in KS and
diminishes by midnight. Large hail and strong winds the main
storm threats, while tornado threat at this point looks rather
low given lack of any e-se component in low level wind field.

Pattern change begins Sunday as broad upper trough moves through
the Rockies, bringing increasing swly flow and drier air to much
of srn CO. Still a low risk of storms near the KS border Sun
afternoon/evening as dryline doesn`t push very far across the
state-line, so will keep some isolated pops in place for the
eastern tier of counties, but go with a dry forecast elsewhere.
Deep mixing and mid-level thermal ridge over the area Sun
afternoon suggest the warmest air of the year so far at many
locations, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations and mainly
70s across much of the higher terrain. Western upper ridge then
builds for next week, though models/ensembles still have some
position differences on where main axis will lie and
timing/strength issues on short wave energy topping the ridge
and diving into the upper midwest. In general, look for hot and
dry weather Mon-Wed, then some slight cooling/moistening of the
air mass over at least the plains toward the end of the week,
along with a return of at least isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
tonight and into tomorrow morning. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KCOS from 20Z
until 03Z this afternoon, and from 22Z until 01Z for KPUB. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities, along with lightning and gusty winds will
be possible with any storms that move over or near either station
today

KALS...VFR conditions are expected for KALS for the next 24 hours.
Light southwesterly and westerly winds are likely through most of
the forecast period. Some showers and weak thunderstorms will be
possible along the terrain surrounding the station, though chances
of any storms moving within the vicinity are low at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...EHR