629
FXUS63 KAPX 192013
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers Thursday and Thursday night, best chance eastern
  upper.

- Lingering light rain and snow showers Friday in eastern upper.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Zonal flow tonight with a very weak subtle piece of energy within
this flow across northern MI. Sfc high pressure will slide off to
the east largely in response to a vigorous upper low pressure
system across Saskatchewan-Manitoba moving southeast and
subsequent sfc low following suit into Ontario. Locations that
remain sheltered from a little breeze overnight and clear out
will see temperatures dip well into the 20s (perhaps colder in
those pesky, always colder spots in the valleys/hilly terrains),
but most areas will see 20s tonight regardless. No real
concerns otherwise with dry conditions.

Low pressure system on Thursday continues to track eastward way off
to the north across Ontario and eventually the southern portion
of Hudson Bay in Canada. Trailing frontal boundary will stretch
down into northern MI. Low level convergence associated with
this feature will kick off showers in the form of rain through
the day and into the overnight on Thursday. Best forcing will be
farther north and thus the best potential for precipitation
will be across eastern upper. Lake aid will provide little
secondary POP maxima overnight across northwest lower. Not
expecting any significant rain accumulation, thus impacts remain
negligible. Increase in pressure gradient ahead of this front
and increasing low level wind fields will result in breezy
conditions on Thursday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):

Light showers of rain or rain/snow will linger on Friday in wake of
the system for Thursday as northwest flow digs in. Precipitation
will be confined to eastern upper, and not expecting any
accumulations of snow, especially with how marginal the
temperatures are and the lack of QPF. This clears on out Friday
night with a tranquil day to start the weekend on Saturday.
Temperatures will rise into the 40s during the daytime hours.

Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):

Not much going on the second half of the weekend and into the early
portions of next week as mild temperatures and energy remains to the
north across Canada limiting most precipitation potential, anything
noteworthy anyway. That being said, the atmosphere becomes
convoluted with several troughs/pieces of energy by the Tuesday/mid
week time frame and beyond. There is pretty good agreement though
within most of the ensemble guidance for 850 temps to dip to values
that support lake effect snows, at least, by the end of next week.
Consequently, snow chances will be on the increase towards the end
of November and beyond; intensity to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Primarily VFR this afternoon through much of tonight despite
gradually increasing clouds in advance of low pressure passing by to
our north on Thursday. Chances for MVFR CIGs increase very late
tonight/early Thursday morning, especially at MBL/TVC/PLN/CIU. Light
rain chances eventually accompany these lower CIGs, mainly after 15z
Thursday (and more beyond the TAF period Thursday afternoon).
Light winds this afternoon through tonight turn out of the south
for Thursday and become a touch breezy by midday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG