720
FXUS63 KAPX 090832
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating lake effect snow continues through today. Highest accumulations
  expected near the Lake Michigan and Huron lakeshores,
  especially Leelanau, Cheboygan, and Presque Isle counties.

- Additional lake effect snow sets in Monday and Monday night.

- More light rain/snow possible through midweek with warmer
  temps for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive longwave troughing will continue to dig across the eastern
half of the country today and tonight as an embedded amplified
trough pivots over the Great Lakes. The primary jet max punching
across the Ohio Valley will provide some upper-level support to
deepen a relatively weak cyclone currently centered over the
Indiana/Kentucky border as it treks towards New England today.

Forecast Details:

As has been discussed in previous forecast cycles, a tricky forecast
evolution continues to unfold across northern Michigan today into
tonight. Of primary focus has been the well-advertised convergence
band with some embedded mesovortex development that has set up just
offshore of northwest lower over Lake Michigan so far tonight.
Additional mesovortices have been rotating across parts of far
northern Chippewa county -- including Sault Ste. Marie. Over far
northern Lake Huron, lake effect snow showers have begun to develop
and will become another focus for later this morning and afternoon.
Will discuss these separate areas below:

Northwest lower -- This banding is the primary concern over the next
several hours. Slight land breeze development has aided convergence
and thus snowfall intensity, albeit the majority has fallen over the
open waters. That said, webcam footage from Lake Leelanau shows snow
covered ground and roads -- perhaps correlating to around 1-2" of
snowfall so far if having to guess. With stronger north-component
synoptic flow and aforementioned troughing moving overhead, current
confidence is that this activity will be shunted over parts of
northwest lower in the coming hours this morning. Several inches of
snow is expected across parts of northwest lower underneath this
band, including localized totals of 6"+ where embedded mesovortices
rotate through -- most likely over Leelanau county. Heaviest
snowfall is expected through this morning, tapering off this
afternoon as activity works south.

Northeast lower -- While snow showers have just begun offshore,
mesovortex development with this lake effect activity will become
the main focus later this morning through this afternoon. Current
confidence is that this activity will sit offshore through the
morning, eventually rotating over parts of Cheboygan and Presque
Isle counties by late morning/early afternoon. This activity carries
similar potential to banding over northwest lower discussed above --
several inches will be possible for parts of northeast lower where
lake effect works inland, including the potential for 6"+ where the
heaviest snowfall associated with mesovortex activity tracks -- most
likely over eastern Cheboygan and western Presque Isle counties at
this time. For this reason, Cheboygan county has been added to the
Winter Weather Advisory. Of note, confidence in higher totals have
decreased further south along the Lake Huron shoreline. Based on
latest observations and guidance, current confidence is that the
main show later today will be associated with the aforementioned
activity above and that additional lake effect/enhanced banding will
struggle over other parts of Lake Huron due to relatively dry air in
the low levels. A few inches of snow remains in the forecast for
many areas of northeast lower as activity over northern Lake Huron
works south, but this appears to be less robust at the moment than
previously thought.

Primary impacts across the area with any activity will be high
snowfall rates leading to potentially hazardous travel conditions.
Impressive low-level moisture depth and enhanced forcing will
support snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour within the heaviest snow --
leading to quick accumulations of snow on roadways and rapid drops
in visibility. Additionally, any remaining wet accumulations on
roads this evening may freeze overnight as temperatures drop into
the teens and low 20s for many areas after snowfall ends.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday):

Additional lake effect snow will be possible Monday and Monday night
as winds shift to the NNW and low level temperatures remain
sufficiently cold. Might be a little NNW lake effect shifting to NW
flow, or some combination/in-between of the two depending on the
exact evolution of the upper and mesoscale pattern. Accumulating
snow is expected, especially GTB and surrounding counties. High end
would be a localized area ~3-6", low end an additional 1-3", with
generally light snow elsewhere. Precipitation will be possible later
on Tuesday as well as quick moving vort max slides on through and
low pressure system digs across Ontario, with more in the way of a
rain and snow mix.

Days 4-7 (Wednesday - Saturday):

Low pressure system passes to the north during the middle portions
of the week. Trailing frontal boundary and associated lake processes
will generate rain and snow showers across northern MI Wednesday
into Thursday. Marginal temperatures during the daytime hours will
lead to a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain, more rain near
the coastal regions. Lake effect precipitation will continue through
Thursday before waning late week. Because of the marginal
temperatures, likely not a big concern as far as impacts go,
although minor accums at night not impossible in the typical
northwest flow lake effect regions.

Drier subsident flow is expected late week as toughing exits to the
east and ridging moves in from the west. There are signals for
perhaps another frontal boundary and precip chances during the
second half of the weekend, however.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Generally VFR with vicinity -SHSN near KCIU/KPLN. Skies mostly
SCT- BKN at 2 to 5 kft with a BKN- OVC layer AOA 7kft moving in
from the SW. Winds will continue to be light and VRB through
12Z. -SHSN will impact coastal terminals of KTVC/KMBL/KPlN
starting around 10Z. Times of IFR vis will be likely under
SHSN. KTVC/KMBL/KAPN will see SN continue after 12Z, whereas
KPLN/KCIU will see VCSH. Wind will become N after 14Z and
strengthen to 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts. SHSN chances will
lessen after 20Z for impacted terminals.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     this evening for MIZ018-024-030.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020-
     025-026-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Monday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Monday for LMZ323-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD