634
FXUS63 KAPX 221131
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
631 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/snow returns this afternoon into tonight

- Breezy Sunday and milder to start week...

- Increasing confidence in cold and breezy weather for mid to late
week, with lake effect snow likely for the Wednesday-Thanksgiving
timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 351 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Flow remains split across the West Coast...with ridging over the
central Canadian Prairies (ahead of a punch of energy and attendant
moisture in Alberta)...and elongated trough axis stretching from an
upper low off SoCal into the central Plains. Flow in between these
features is generally nebulous...with a col region aloft over the
western Plains into the Dakotas. Confluence zone persists across the
Great Lakes...particularly, central/southern MI, between 523dm 500mb
upper low near James Bay...and broad ridging across the SE US
(though this feature appears to be waning a bit since yesterday).
Bulk of the cold air beneath upper low (850mb temps -8C over
Ontario)...with a surface cold front stretching from a triple point
in southern Quebec to central IN. Moisture remains along/south of
baroclinic zone stretching from the southern/central Plains and a
700mb low near IA...eastward through the OH Valley and into the Mid
Atlantic states...with moisture, even in the form of clouds,
struggling to make it further northward than southern MI.

Shortwave trough over central Canada to approach by
Saturday...preceded by some warm advection that should bring some
activity to the EUP/Tip of the Mitt later today...initially in the
form of snow late this afternoon, but could transition to rain as
things warm overnight ahead of the cold front. Southwest winds
should increase ahead of this...shifting to WNW overnight as the
front crosses the region (approx 3-9z from west to east) and
remaining quite breezy into Sunday. Lots of low-level moisture with
this...and expect some lake effect showers to develop on the
backside of the front...enhanced near and north of M-32 overnight by
some better saturation aloft.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Precip type and potential snowfall accumulations late
afternoon/tonight...Guidance soundings suggest precip could start as
snow across the Yoop this afternoon as moisture moves in aloft and
we get a little evaporative cooling with the mid-level dry layer
expected. With thermal profile warming overnight ahead of the
front...signals point toward a transition to a mix or all rain
overnight toward Sunday morning, though some guidance soundings
suggest we could remain cold enough in the low-levels to stay all or
mostly snow into the morning.

Does appear some weaker stability develops overhead (700-500mb
layer) late today into tonight as that trough passes...and do think
this could open the door for some better QPF, as pwats around 0.5-
0.6in are on the higher side of normal for late November...though
not sure we will squeeze all of that out over our area. Best chances
for 0.25in or more of liquid/liquid-equivalent precip by 12z Sun. is
generally across central and northeastern Chippewa county in the
Yoop (60-70 percent). Were this to all fall as snow...a couple
inches of wetter snow are possible...as generally warmer thermal
profiles, particularly in the lower-levels, suggest SLRs will
probably be a little wetter (around 10:1 or less).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Days 2-3 (Sunday-Monday)...

Ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday behind the
front...with a tight pressure gradient initially leading to some
breezy WNW/NW winds through the day...though high pressure slipping
by to our south should dial things back (and reduce clouds) late in
the day. Upper low ejecting from the SW US will approach the region
late Monday, resulting in return flow across the Upper Midwest,
including the Great Lakes...and our first potential round of warm
advection precip going into Monday night. This should be in the form
of rain.

Breezy/gusty Sunday...Cold advection should support mixing down some
of the 30-40 kt winds expected around 850mb Sunday morning into
early afternoon...particularly over the EUP/N Lake Huron and perhaps
parts of northeast Lower where cold advection should be in place the
longest and inversion heights the highest. This is where I have gone
ahead with issuing a gale watch...though the more I mull over
forecast soundings over land, and the more I poke around in some of
the probabilistic guidance...am becoming a little concerned that 25-
35kt gusts aren`t out of the question from northern Lake Michigan
across the fingers of the Mitten as well.

Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday)...

First disturbance zips on through Tuesday morning...as dynamic
upstream shortwave digs into the Northern Plains. Expect this to
lift through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday, resulting in strong
cyclogenesis in our region and strengthening north/northwesterly
flow to awaken the lakes yet again. A much colder latter half of the
week is on tap, with accumulating lake effect snow likely (though
details on exactly where/how much is still unclear) as broad
troughing overtakes the eastern/northeastern US for the Thanksgiving
weekend.

Guidance is starting to come into some agreement compared to the
last couple nights, particularly with timing of the cold air
Wednesday (now more of a +/-6hrs vs. +/-24hrs)...with -12C air
on our doorstep by Wednesday night/Thanksgiving morning,
supportive of cold enough temps to keep snow around through the
end of the week. It is also coming into better agreement on
timing/placement of the strengthening cyclone and resultant
strong N/NW flow into the region overall...focusing on the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe for the most intense period with
best synoptic support for our area. However, some guidance is
still slower to eject the upper low from the region...which
would keep the stronger flow and more persistent lake effect
snow in the area into the weekend...though even the quicker
guidance has some disturbances tracking through to keep things
unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The TAF sites are low-end VFR early this morning thanks to a low
cloud deck; the higher elevations of interior northern lower MI
are MVFR. TAF sites should remain VFR for the daylight hours.
Cigs will lower, especially at northerly TAF sites, tonight.
Expect CIU/PLN/APN to be MVFR at times tonight. These sites will
also have rain or mixed snow/rain tonight. TVC may become MVFR
toward Sunday morning.

Southerly winds become breezy heading into tonight, veering west
late.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ346-
     349.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for LMZ323-341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
     Sunday for LMZ344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ