Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260939
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY NOON. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST
MOISTURE WILL BE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO EIGHT
TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AT THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...EXPECT THEM TO DROP
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. THIS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL PRODUCE SURFACE
BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS ON
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER CAPES WILL BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  FLOW OF LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE ERN PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL KEEP IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT AFTN AND EVENING
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE 90S OVER NERN CO.

ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP ANY FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN
CO WHICH WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.  AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY AFTN TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.  FOR TUE NIGHT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND FRONT RANGE IN SELY LOW LVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
2ND SURGE WHICH COMES IN OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS SECOND SURGE MOVES
ACROSS BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS TUE NIGHT.

BY WED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS
WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.  APPEARS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR THU AND FRI THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WNW.  THIS WOULD KEEP
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE IN THE MTNS.  ACROSS THE PLAINS THERE
WILL BE DECENT LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH BOTH
THU AND FRI  WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS BOTH DAYS.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON THU
AND THEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY FRI OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.  SO ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY RATHER ISOLD.  HIGHS ON SAT WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 90S OVER NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVE OVER COLORADO. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER 18Z...WITH THE BEST TIME FOR THE DENVER AREA BEING 21Z-01Z.
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 15Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER


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