Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220957
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
357 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Satellite indicates thin scattered to broken cirrus shifting
northeast across the state. So far, any increase in mid level
moisture is only occurring in southwest Colorado where integrated
precipitable water trends from GPS is showing an increase of
around 0.25 inch over the last 12 hours. The upper flow pattern
remains quite light, but a weakly organized upper level trough is
still expected to push northeast into the forecast area late this
afternoon through tonight. Both the weak synoptic scale lift and
mid level moisture will be slow to arrive. That being said, the
mountains stand the highest threat of seeing convective
development during the afternoon hours where moisture arrives
first. On the plains, any threat would likely hold off until very
late in the afternoon or evening as the low levels are quite dry
and anything developing will be high based and outflow dominated.
Overall forecast is right on track with the latest real time data
and observations. Only adjustment was to bring up high
temperatures a couple more degrees per yesterday`s highs and late
arrival of any significant moisture.

There is weak lift noted through tonight, so could see a low
threat of a shower/storm lingering overnight. Right now that
would most likely be confined to the mountains or far eastern
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Models now have one, or a couple weak upper troughs over the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night. The flow aloft is pretty much
southwesterly and weak all four periods. The models continue to
have weak upward QG vertical motion for the CWA through Wednesday
evening. The boundary layer flow will be northerly on Tuesday,
then northwest to northeasterly Tuesday night with cold front to
move across sometime. Northeasterly to southeasterly upslope
prevails on Wednesday, with maybe some normal drainage before
dawn Thursday morning. There is quite a bit of mid and upper level
moisture over the CWA Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
The precipitable water values are progged in the 0.40 to 0.80
inch range for all the CWA all four periods. There is not much CAPE
around late day Tuesday or Wednesday, mainly just some over
the western half of the CWA. Will go with pops in he 10-60%
range, highest over the high country. Tuesday`s highs will be
0-1.5 C cooler than today`s. Wednesday`s highs are 4-8 C cooler
than Tuesday`s. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, the
models have weak upper troughiness north and northwest of Colorado
through Saturday. There is west-southwesterly flow aloft for the
CWA those three days along with fairy decent mid and upper level
moisture. There is more upper ridging for Sunday with a drier
airmass and due westerly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday morning. There is only
a small 10-20% chance of a shower/high based storm affecting
the Front Range airports 23Z-04Z, but a higher chance of gusty
outflow winds to 30 knots affecting the airports given the high
based nature of any convection. Outside of convection, winds will
follow the typical normal diurnal patterns and hold near 10 knots
or less.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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