Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260156
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
756 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
CELLS ARE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL EXTEND POPS
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HAVE SEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND THEN
DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
APPEARS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PARK COUNTY. A FEW
MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AND UTAH SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ROTATE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT AND BE IN
PLACE TO FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW. WEAK WINDS ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER OF LATE SHOULD HELP SOIL
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE DENVER AREA
SHOW LOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE DRY WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE SHOWERS
THAT MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS BEING MAINLY DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS
RATHER THAN CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY CHANGE TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO INTO MID DAY THURSDAY. THEN WEAK ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO WESTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THEN DOWNWARD ENERGY LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY ON
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNSLOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND EASTERLIES ON FRIDAY...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN IS DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME LIMITED CAPE AROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LESS AROUND LATE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL GO WITH THE BEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LESS LATE
DAY THURSDAY...AND EVEN LESS BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...THURSDAY HIGHS ARE 3-6 C COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY HIGHS
ARE UP2-3 C FROM THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ALL FOUR DAYS. THERE IS WEAK WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA THOSE FOUR DAYS AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT ONCE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION SUBSIDE.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT. AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE WILL FORM
WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER



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