Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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874
FXUS65 KBOU 162118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW JUST MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...QUITE A BIT OF SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S ARE KEEPING
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY LATER THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THE MOUNTAIN TOP
FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS ON GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO
ON SUNDAY WITH A BIT DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF PALMER
DIVIDE. A BIT WARMER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE COOL AND RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...IF NOT A
LITTLE LONGER. VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS GOING TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO FUEL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL BE ON TUESDAY. ALL OF
THE MODELS MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL INDUCE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
SINCE ALL OF THE ELEMENTS FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT. SOME OF THE MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A
REPEAT OF TOMORROW AND MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND
ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE EJECTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WOULD BE EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME. EACH TIME PERIOD IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PICK UP SNOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS THEN ENDING AS DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
OFF FRONT RANGE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE LATER TONIGHT. AS AIRMASS MIXES OUT ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
SOME NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWER COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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