Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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789
FXUS65 KBOU 100409
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
909 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

FEW CHANGES NECESSARY TO ONGOING FORECAST. MAY STILL SEE FRONT
RANGE LEESIDE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PICK UP LATE TONIGHT WITH FALLING SFC
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS AND RISING SFC PRESSURE
ON THE WEST SLOPE. IN ADDITION...AMPLIFICATION OF THE FRONT RANGE
MTN WAVE WILL AID TO TRANSPORT STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNWARD
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LEESLOPE DRAINAGE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FT MSL...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS COULD SEE WLY WIND GUSTS IN THE
15-25KT RANGE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS GUSTY CHINOOK TYPE WIND WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER AREAS OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LENTICULAR/WAVE CLOUDS FORM
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AROUND SUNRISE ACCORDING TO NAM AND WRF
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY WEST OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA BUT WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING THROWN-IN TONIGHT...THEN
WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE PROGGED ON THE CROSS SECTIONS...AND NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. NO POPS.  WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EASING. THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WARM...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL COOLING ON
THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY. IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
WILL STILL BE THERE THURSDAY BUT SHOULD BE LESS...AND AFTER THAT
MAY NOT BE DISTINGUISHED FROM THE GENERAL COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
NE. SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK ABOUT SUNDAY...TIMING AND STRENGTH
STILL VARYING A LITTLE WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH MORE COOLING...BUT
STILL PRETTY DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. WHILE SOME OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE 15
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON THIS.
MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY HAS SLIGHT COOLING...MAYBE BACK DOWN TO
50...AND WE WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.

GFS POPS THE RIDGE RIGHT BACK UP...WOULD BE RIGHT BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARMING. AGAIN THE
CONSENSUS IS FINE FOR NOW. DRY AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST LATER NEXT WEEK IS THE FIRST SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITION LIKELY AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH AREAS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS SUCH AS KBJC COULD SEE
GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15-25KTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT
LEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BAKER



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