Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290357
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF
LINCOLN COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL A BATCH OF STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM AGAIN SO I INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS AROUND 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH AN INCH BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN MONDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY DECREASE MONDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARK COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RACE EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EACH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ONE BACKING UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATE
ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FLOW INDUCED BY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD MANAGE TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW TOP T-STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...A SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW T-STORMS OUT THERE
WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES RISING FOR REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS. COULD SEE ISOLATED T-STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SUCH AS SOUTH PARK ON THURSDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS MORE MONSOON MOISTURE TO
STREAM UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CURVING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD ELEVATE THE T-STORM PROBABILITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO MTNS...
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD START OUT ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH COUNTRY READINGS WILL BE QUITE BALMY AS WELL WITH
60S/70S ON THE MTN SLOPES/RIDGES AND 80S ON THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO COOL 5-7 DEG F
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY CHANGE IN MTN/HIGH VALLEY TEMPS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE DAILY TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER EVEN WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PRECIP/T-STORM CHANCES. LOOKING EVEN
FURTHER OUT...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WET/STORMY AROUND HERE WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ON MONDAY...JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER



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