Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270041
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
641 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COMING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION AND CHANGES IN
INTENSITY. OVERALL...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOWERING AS THIS
LATEST BATCH OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO BE FLATTENING IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. MAY CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS EVENING
DEPENDING ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE UTAH-COLORADO BORDER. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO 1.50
INCHES OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING. APPROXIMATELY WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NOT SEEING ANYTHING WELL DEFINED...BUT WILL ALL THE
MOISTURE AROUND CAN` T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CAPES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AT
BEST. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED DAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DAY...ENHANCED BY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS
FROM RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING GOING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. HEIGHTS OVER COLORADO WILL BE
RISING AND MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED
OUT OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY TO FEED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 80S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO BE REPLACED BY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. SOME SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED
INTO THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE BEGINS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA
THROUGH 03Z. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DENVER AREA
FROM 09Z TO 15Z WITH CEILINGS LESS THAN 3000 FEET.

ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 20Z. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 635 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE AN INCH ON THE
PLAINS...BUT LATEST SHOWER/STORM TREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING. SHOULD
SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH Q-G LIFT MOVING IN LATER
ON...BUT INTENSITY PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG
WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BEFORE DISCONTINUING WATCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ041-045>047-
049.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/MEIER



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