Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190252
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
852 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Nearly cloud free over the CWA at this time. The low level winds
are pretty weak. Will make a few minor changes to the grids,
mostly with the sky and wind fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

There is a dry West to Northwest flow aloft over Colorado today
and this airmass will continue through Monday. No chance for any
showers/storms through the period. Continued slight warming on
Monday as temperatures climb another 2-3 degrees higher than
today. There will be less wind over the Northern sections of
Colorado on Monday as the flow aloft weakens along with a weaker
surface gradient across the state.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Minimum temperatures Monday night will be warmer as warm advection
continues to push into the area under the upper ridge.

Moisture will push in from the southwest, from TS Paine, on
Tuesday. Overall, models have slowed the moisture advance and has
it a little more south than before. Have delayed the POPs for this
as well as concentrated them more south of I70. Will likely see
isolated to scattered showers and storms late Tuesday afternoon
with a slight chance to see activity over mainly the Palmer Divide
Tuesday night. Max temperatures will be similar over the plains
but cooler over the mountains as cloud cover affects push in
earlier.

A shortwave ridge will push overhead again on Wednesday with some
cloud cover lasting, resulting in a slightly cooler and mostly
dry day again.

A strong upper low will dig along the Pacific Northwest Wednesday
night then dig into the Great Basin through Thursday. At the same
time, a weak cold front is expected to push down into northeastern
Colorado late Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms will push into the mountains in the afternoon with a
slight chance of seeing activity push over the northern plains.
Another surface low will be deepening over the northeastern
plains Thursday night as the upper system gets closer, which will
help to dry out most of the urban corridor and plains.

Showers will push into the mountains Friday morning then likely over
the northern plains in the afternoon and evening. Overall, this
weather system will be too far north for a good precip event for
the whole area. EC has trended a little south with the upper
system while the GFS trended a little north, getting closer to
each others solutions. Snow levels have dropped a little more with
the system for Friday and Saturday...some near 8000 Friday night
in the mountains. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler
with the approaching system. A cold front will push down the area
Friday night. Temperatures on Saturday will likely be in the 60s
over the plains and in the 40s and 50s in the high country.

Drier northwesterly flow aloft will push over the area Sunday
behind the system for continued cool conditions and a slight
chance of showers mainly over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 824 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Winds at DIA are south-southeast currently. The models have them
south-southwesterly right now. They should be weak drainage at
some point before 04Z. No ceiling issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Will continue the red flag warning as planned but humidity levels
not quite as low as expected over fire weather zone 211. Still a
fair amount of winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and some gusts up to
35 mph over the plains bordering Wyoming. Less wind expected on
Monday so no red flag warnings are planned but still low
humidities expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RJK
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin



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