Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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319
FXUS65 KBOU 160951
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Mid-level circulation that has focused convection the last few
days continues to drift slowly eastward, now over east central
Colorado. Models continue to bring this too far northward while
the strongest convection on the south side is actually keeping
latent heat release there and causing the whole pattern to keep
shifting slowly eastward. Meanwhile warmer and drier air aloft on
the north side will cap convection again. We are starting to see
more of this drying reaching the surface across most of
northeastern Colorado, as well as over the northern mountains.
These areas with more thorough drying may see mostly clear skies
all day. There still should be enough moisture for some convection
of the central mountains and maybe the Palmer Divide area late in
the day. Temperatures will be warmer today, though our forecast is
warmer than guidance and what the forecast soundings would
support. Trimmed today`s highs back slightly but kept them warmer
than guidance given the sunshine and the fact that the models have
too much influence from the convection to the southeast. There is
strong warming aloft tonight, but clearing skies should allow
temps to fall to the forecast values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A broad ridge stretching across the southern U.S. will remain the
dominating feature through the period. The ridge will be centered
over the Colorado and the Desert Southwest early in the week. As a
result, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over
the mountains on Monday and Tuesday with just isolated coverage
over the northeast plains in the late aftn and evening. The
hottest days of the week will likely be at this time as well. For
the rest of the period, the center of the ridge is forecast to shift
to the east of Colorado. This will allow for sub-tropical
moisture to increase and advect into the state. There should be
better coverage of tstms across the entire cwa especially in the
Thursday through Saturday period. It will not be as hot either,
with more cloud cover and a better chance of showers each day. The
threat of severe storms will be low due to a weakly sheared
environment, but slow storm motions will allow for a greater
likelihood of locally heavy showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR through tonight. Only isolated thunderstorms mainly south and
west of Denver this afternoon and evening. Little or no impact
expected to the Denver terminals.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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