Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170235
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES TO EVENING FORECAST. THERE WERE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
OVER PARK COUNTY BUT THESE HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. AIRMASS MAINLY
DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS AS SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEHIND BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH


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