Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 150217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A JET OVER THE STATE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING PRODUCED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
AROUND. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...COULD ALSO SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS. UPDATED TO NUDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE...THESE
SHOULD DIE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN WE TURN OUR ATTENTION
TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE STATE AROUND SUNSET...
THEN PROCEED SOUTH THROUGH THE METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER GETS SATURATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE SLOW START AND A COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS. THE MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY
SLOWLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER THAN OUR EARLIER FORECAST...WE SHOULD GET
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TO WARM THINGS UP...SO I RAISED MAX TEMPS BY
A DEGREE. MODELS ALSO SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY...RAISED POPS A BIT...BUT PLAINS
SHOULD BE TOO COOL AND STABLE TO HAVE ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS
FROM REDEVELOPING...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF GETTING SOME IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN BE OVER COLORADO
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 90 ON THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY...BUT THE NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS RATHER STABLE...GENERALLY A LITTLE SHY OF
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SO EVEN THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE LIMITED.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED AWAY FROM A STRONG TROUGH ON FRIDAY. DESPITE INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMIC LIFT...INSTABILITY...OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT LOW
POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES UNDER THE MOISTURE ALOFT. SATURDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT READY TO RULE OUT SHOWERS YET THOUGH
THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OR PERHAPS JUST ENDING ON THE
PLAINS IN THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS. LOOKING FOR SOME
RECOVERY ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SOUTH
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE. NOT ENOUGH DRYING YET TO PRECLUDE
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS TO 25
KNOTS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND
09Z WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO 1000 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE. CAN`T
RULE OUT QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE IS LOW. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT 16-18Z
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER


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