Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
809 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MANAGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS TO POP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE DAY
WITH THE HELP OF A LITTLE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST.
THE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD IN PERSON AS THEY DO ON THE
RADAR...AND NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT THEIR CONTINUING SO THINK THEY MAY
NOT LAST LONG. STILL A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CREEPING UP
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
COMING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW CUMULUS GOING UP WEST OF CHEYENNE AND
IN OUR MOUNTAINS...BUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS UNDER THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE MOISTENING PROCESS AND WE WILL BE
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WE SHOULD GET GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO
RAISED TEMPS A BIT AS 12Z GUIDANCE WAS A BIT WARMER.

TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...PARK COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT
TUE JUL 28 2015

A STRONG LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GOING TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GOING TO BE
SHIFTING FROM A POSITION OVER TEXAS WESTWARD TO NEVADA AND UTAH AS
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RISE. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A SUBTLE TRANSITION FROM WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO TEND TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HIGH...AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN COLORADO. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MIGHT EXIST
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST DAY FOR THIS RIGHT
NOW APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE LEVELS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...IN SPITE OF THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S
FOR THE BETTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN DAY BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GETTING WARM ENOUGH...+16C TO +20C...TO
CAP ANY CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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