Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200141
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
741 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Will keep sct-likely pops going through the evening...with
decreasing pops thereafter. The amount of cloud cover will
determine how cold it gets to tonight...for now will hold onto
lows in the mid 40s. NAM12 spatial cross-sections appear to hang
onto the low level cloudiness through 12z Sat mrng.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Quite a bit of showers and storms already erupting over the
Northern Front Range foothills of Larimer and Northern Boulder
counties. Storm motions are decent...15-20kt so threat of any
flooding appears low. Storms have been dropping up to a third of
an inch of rain with passing storms so far. Surface cold front
now into Northern larimer and Northern Weld counties and expected
to be into the Denver area towards 4 pm local. Good surface
heating now ahead of the front with temperatures at Denver in the
upper 70s and dewpoints holding upper 40s/lower 50s. This has put
surface based CAPES 1000-1200j/kg. Won`t be surprised if we see a
few severe storms with one inch diameter hail and strong winds.

Thunderstorm activity will decrease from North to South through the
evening hours as stronger subsidence moves in behind the trof.
Still some question on how much clearing there will be tonight.
Latest NAM still indicates quite a bit of cloud cover for much of
the night but any kind of clearing will take low temperatures well
into the 40s. Record low tonight at Denver is 46 so we may be very
close to a record.

Expect drier conditions on Saturday with cooler low levels and
more stable airmass. The exception would be the Mountains and Park
county, especially south of the Interstate 70 corridor where
lingering moisture and instability will result in isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain cool on the plains with
readings in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Northwest flow aloft Saturday evening will turn westerly Sunday.
This pattern will bring dry air to the region. Expected enough
moisture to remain over the higher terrain south of Interstate 70
to produce isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening and again
Sunday afternoon and evening. Highs on Sunday will rebound into
the 80s across northeast Colorado.

On Monday, southwest flow aloft ahead of a weak upper level low
moving across the southwest part of the country will help transport
subtropical moisture back into the area. Expected this to produce a
round of scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain, with
isolated storms moving east off the higher terrain. The trough will
pass over Colorado Tuesday. This is expected to bring more
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Monday will be
in the upper 80s over northeast Colorado. With the trough overhead,
expected slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday.

For Wednesday through Friday, northwest flow behind the exiting low
will bring cooler temperatures Wednesday. Models showing some sort
of northwest flow aloft continuing through Friday which should keep
temperatures below normal. Details on the short waves embedded in
the northwest flow aloft still need to be worked out. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will remain possible over the higher terrain.
For the lower elevations, still too soon to tell when the best
chance for storms will be. Plan on going with 10-20s pops at this
time until the pattern becomes more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 724 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Storms should diminish around the Denver area by 10 pm with some
lingering showers thereafter. At this time...KAPA and KBJC appear
to have the best chc for any additional tstms based on the storms
track. For now will go with primarily showers. Cigs may recover a
bit once the showers diminish...but could still be some ils
restrictions with bkn-ovc cigs 040-060 kft agl overnight.
Northerly winds will weaken this evening...with light east/sely
winds developing after midnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Cooper


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