Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 121829
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1129 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

The radars, web cameras and observations show there is still some
light snow around in the mountains, foothills and high valleys,
mainly south of I-70 right now. There is quite a bit of mid an
upper level cloudiness moving across the CWA in the strong
southwesterly flow aloft. Will keep pops mainly in the
southwestern quarter of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures
should stay near seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

The upper low continues to shift southward off the southern
California coast early this morning with a light southwest flow
aloft over Colorado. Radar indicating light snow over far southern
portions of the CWA, especially across Park and southern portions
of Jefferson and Douglas counties. These areas of light snow will
continue this morning and then shift further south and west away
from our CWA as the upper low also continues to move further
southward and further away from Colorado. There is still some weak
QG Lift over southern portions along with upper level diflunce,
helping to keep some of this light snow continuing. By this
afternoon any snowfall will be more confined to western portions
of Park and Summit counties. Any accumulations today and tonight
will be 3 inches or less.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side today in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. Readings across lower elevations will
remain in the mid 30s over the Palmer Divide to the 40s elsewhere
on the plains. Colder temperatures tonight especially northern
sections under clear skies. Southern sections will still see some
cloud cover with slightly warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

An upper level low will remain well south of the area on Mon over
srn New Mexico with weak flow aloft.  There will be some lingering
moisture over the higher terrain mainly along and south of I-70.
This moisture combined with aftn heating will lead to a chc of
-shsn mainly in the mtns. Elsewhere it will be dry with high pres
across the area. Aftn highs over nern Co will range fm the upper
40s to lower 50s.

On Tue the upper level low will move into wrn Texas as an upper
level high builds fm Idaho into the Great Basin.  This will allow
for the mid lvl flow to become nely with a dry airmass in place.
At the sfc, high pressure will remain across the area with little
change in the low lvl temp fields. Thus highs across the plains
will not change much.

By Wed the upper level high will be over the great Basin with dry
NNW flow aloft across the area.  A sfc lee trough will dvlp nr the
foothills with downslope low lvl flow.  Thus will see warmer highs
across nern CO with readings in the lower to mid 60s.  On Thu the
flow aloft will become more wly with a dry airmass remaining over
the area. Downslope flow will increase east of the mtns as the
sfc lee trough intensifies so will see even warmer temps across
the plains with readings in the 65 to 70 degree range.

For Fri the flow aloft will become more swly with some increase in
moisture in the mtns.  Thus will mention a slight chc of showers.
Across nern CO it will remain dry with highs remaining well abv
normal.  By Sat the flow aloft will become more ssw as an upper
level trough digs into the swrn US.  There will be some embedded
moisture in this flow so will keep in a chc of showers in the mtns.
Over nern CO a wk cool fnt will move across the plains which will
drop highs back into the mid to upper 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

Models keep southeasterly low levels over DIA this afternoon,
with normal drainage flow overnight. There will plenty of mid and
upper level cloudiness over the airport but ceilings below 6,000
feet AGL are not expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK



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