Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020955
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
355 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND PRESSURE RISE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
RATHER STRONG PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION...PROBABLY DISGUISING THE COLD FRONT. IN ANY CASE...THE
INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND THE SURGE IS ACTING ON A
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO FIRE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CLOUD FILLING IN AND GRADUALLY COOLING. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST TIL
AROUND MID MORNING. THEN THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ENDING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE DELAYED OR SUPPRESSED A
BIT. HOWEVER...Q-G FIELDS SHOW YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN
BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL HELP
BREAK CAP AND PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

WITH REGARD TO STORM INTENSITY AND SEVERE THREAT...CAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-1800 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH AN INCH IN 20-30 MINUTES FROM
STRONGER STORMS. THEY WILL BE MOVING ALONG AT 20-25 KNOTS FOR THE
MOST PART. STRAIGHTLINE HODOGRAPHS TODAY HOWEVER COULD MEAN A
SLOWER LEFT SPLITTING CELL CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS. MAIN HYDROLOGIC THREAT
WOULD BE MINOR URBAN/STREET FLOODING AND BURN SCARS ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT...SO THIS WOULD KEEP A LOW
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

ON FRIDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. THERE WILL
BE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A LOW
LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. CAPES IN THE AFTN WILL NOT
BE AS HIGH AS THU BUT STILL FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND 1200 J/LG AT
DENVER. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL WITH PW VALUES OVER ONE
INCH. CONSEQUENTLY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE AFTN/EVNG. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUNDINGS ON SATURDAY ARE
MORE INVERTED-V WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND THE STORMS
NOT AS INTENSE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 90. ON SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FM MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO. A COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO NERN
COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA
IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER MONDAY AS A STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE
PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVNG WILL BE IN NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID 70S. THE FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE WESTERLY THE THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA. STILL SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS TIL
AROUND 15Z...THEN EXPECT A BREAK FROM 15Z-21Z BEFORE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING 21Z-03Z
WILL BE STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAINFALL...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS. PROBABILITIES HIGH ENOUGH FOR TO WARRANT TEMPO THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AFTER 21Z/22Z. EARLY MORNING FRONT 10Z-11Z WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHEAST-EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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