Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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